80th Anniversary of the Publication of Endemic Syphilis in Bosnia: Survey by the School of Public Health in Zagreb.

Certain regions of Bosnia and Herzegovina were prominent European sites of endemic syphilis. In 1934 and 1935 the School of Public Health in Zagreb, later the Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, conducted two surveys on endemic syphilis in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The surveys were well-described in the monograph published in 1939 by the School, under the title Endemic Syphilis in Bosnia: Survey by the School of Public Health in Zagreb ("Endemski sifilis u Bosni anketa Skole narodnog zdravlja u Zagrebu"). This paper provides a description of the publication for the first time, presents the most important data from it, and explores its significance from the historical perspective.

"Imagine All the People:" Andrija Stampar's Ideology in The Context of Contemporary Public Health Initiatives

Recently, the World Health Organization launched its Universal Health Coverage initiative with the aim to improve access to quality health care on a global level, without causing financial hardship to the patients. In this paper, we will identify and analyze the ideological similarities between this influential initiative and the work of one of the founders of the WHO-Andrija Stampar (1888-1958)-whose social medicine was built of various normative, sociological and philosophical elements. Our aim is to demonstrate the crucial role of carefully erected and thought-out ideology for the success of public health programs.

The George W. Comstock Center for Public Health Research and Prevention: A Century of Collaboration, Innovation, and Translation.

The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health has been engaged in public health research and practice in Washington County, Maryland, nearly since its inception a century ago. In 2005, the center housing this work was renamed the George W. Comstock Center for Public Health Research and Prevention to honor its pioneering leader. Principles that guided innovation and translation well in the past included: research synergies and opportunities for translation realized through longstanding connection with the community; integration of training with public health research; lifelong learning, mentorship, and teamwork; and efficiency through economies of scale. These principles are useful to consider as we face the challenges of improving the health of the population over the next 100 years.

Leadership of the Department of Epidemiology of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Its First Century.

This commentary reviews the contributions of each of the 7 Chairs of the Department of Epidemiology from the Department's inception in 1919 to the advent of the Centennial Celebration of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in 2016. The founding Chair, Wade Hampton Frost (1919-1938), was among the handful of foundational thinkers in the discipline of epidemiology. Kenneth Maxcy (1938-1954) and Philip Sartwell (1954-1970) oversaw the Department through the epidemiologic transition from a preponderance of morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases to a preponderance of noncommunicable diseases. Abraham Lilienfeld (1970-1975) and Leon Gordis (1975-1993) were perhaps best known for their mastery of teaching, influencing generations of both medical and public health students. Jonathan Samet (1994-2008) oversaw a major curriculum revision and expanded the Department significantly, and David Celentano (2008-) is working to rebalance the practice of epidemiology with the etiological foundations of epidemiology. All Chairs were a product of their times, and their research focus and portfolios influenced the direction of the Department. Future generations of Johns Hopkins students will be influenced directly or indirectly by the heritage of these Chairs' actions and those of their faculty.

Mechanistic Models of Infectious Disease and Their Impact on Public Health.

From the 1930s through the 1940s, Lowell Reed and Wade Hampton Frost used mathematical models and mechanical epidemic simulators as research tools and to teach epidemic theory to students at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (then the School of Hygiene and Public Health). Since that time, modeling has become an integral part of epidemiology and public health. Models have been used for explanatory and inferential purposes, as well as in planning and implementing public health responses. In this article, we review a selection of developments in the history of modeling of infectious disease dynamics over the past 100 years. We also identify trends in model development and use and speculate as to the future use of models in infectious disease dynamics.

Cultivating Hygiene as a Science: The Welch-Rose Report's Influence at Johns Hopkins and Beyond.

In 1915, William Henry Welch and Wickliffe Rose submitted a report to the Rockefeller Foundation that became the template for public health professional education in the United States and abroad. Based on the Welch-Rose Report's recommendations, the Foundation awarded a grant to Johns Hopkins University in 1916 to establish the first independent graduate school of public health, with Welch serving as the founding dean. The Welch-Rose Report and, by extension, the Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health established and transmitted a new model of scientific training that wove the laboratory mindset together with the methods of public health administration and epidemiologic fieldwork. During the School's first quarter-century, faculty and alumni were remarkably active in frontline public health problem-solving, as well as launching public health agencies and schools of all types and sizes. The most lasting contribution of the Welch-Rose Report and the Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, now the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, has been to "cultivate the science of hygiene" to bring about exponential growth in the evidence base for public health. The schools that have adopted the Johns Hopkins model of public health education worldwide have produced professionals who have worked to achieve wide-ranging reforms dedicated to preserving life, protecting health, and preventing injury across populations and continents.

Statistical Reasoning and Methods in Epidemiology to Promote Individualized Health: In Celebration of the 100th Anniversary of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Epidemiology is concerned with determining the distribution and causes of disease. Throughout its history, epidemiology has drawn upon statistical ideas and methods to achieve its aims. Because of the exponential growth in our capacity to measure and analyze data on the underlying processes that define each person's state of health, there is an emerging opportunity for population-based epidemiologic studies to influence health decisions made by individuals in ways that take into account the individuals' characteristics, circumstances, and preferences. We refer to this endeavor as "individualized health." The present article comprises 2 sections. In the first, we describe how graphical, longitudinal, and hierarchical models can inform the project of individualized health. We propose a simple graphical model for informing individual health decisions using population-based data. In the second, we review selected topics in causal inference that we believe to be particularly useful for individualized health. Epidemiology and biostatistics were 2 of the 4 founding departments in the world's first graduate school of public health at Johns Hopkins University, the centennial of which we honor. This survey of a small part of the literature is intended to demonstrate that the 2 fields remain just as inextricably linked today as they were 100 years ago.

The Role of Professional Journals and Societies in the Future of a Field: A Reflection on the Partnership Between the American Journal of Epidemiology and the Society for Epidemiologic Research.

On this, the 100th anniversary of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, we take the opportunity to reflect on the ties between the School, the American Journal of Epidemiology, and the Society for Epidemiologic Research. We discuss briefly the intersection of the School, the Journal, and the Society throughout their histories, with the aim of providing some insight into how the Journal and the Society have contributed to the evolution of the field. In so doing, we articulate the challenges that the Journal and the Society jointly face today, with an eye to finding opportunities in these challenges that can be helpful in coming decades.

The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health: A Brief History of a Century of Epidemiologic Discovery.

During its first century, the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health has been home to several faculty members who have played leading roles in defining and expanding the field and science of epidemiology. They have done so by training leaders in the field, creating new methods and applications, and making relevant discoveries in the worlds of infectious and chronic diseases. These methodologic innovations and discoveries underlie many of today's major health policies and practices.

Epidemiology: Then and Now.

Twenty-five years ago, on the 75th anniversary of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, I noted that epidemiologic research was moving away from the traditional approaches used to investigate "epidemics" and their close relationship with preventive medicine. Twenty-five years later, the role of epidemiology as an important contribution to human population research, preventive medicine, and public health is under substantial pressure because of the emphasis on "big data," phenomenology, and personalized medical therapies. Epidemiology is the study of epidemics. The primary role of epidemiology is to identify the epidemics and parameters of interest of host, agent, and environment and to generate and test hypotheses in search of causal pathways. Almost all diseases have a specific distribution in relation to time, place, and person and specific "causes" with high effect sizes. Epidemiology then uses such information to develop interventions and test (through clinical trials and natural experiments) their efficacy and effectiveness. Epidemiology is dependent on new technologies to evaluate improved measurements of host (genomics), epigenetics, identification of agents (metabolomics, proteomics), new technology to evaluate both physical and social environment, and modern methods of data collection. Epidemiology does poorly in studying anything other than epidemics and collections of numerators and denominators without specific hypotheses even with improved statistical methodologies.