Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities.

Lassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100 000 to 300 000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. There is reported asynchrony between peak infection in the rodent population and peak Lassa fever risk among people, probably owing to differing seasonal contact rates. Here, we developed a susceptible-infected-recovered ([Formula: see text])-based model of LASV dynamics in its rodent host, M. natalensis, with a persistently infected class and seasonal birthing to test the impact of changes to seasonal birthing in the future owing to climate and land use change. Our simulations suggest shifting rodent birthing timing and synchrony will alter the peak of viral prevalence, changing risk to people, with viral dynamics mainly stable in adults and varying in the young, but with more infected individuals. We calculate the time-average basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text], for this infectious disease system with periodic changes to population sizes owing to birthing using a time-average method and with a sensitivity analysis show four key parameters: carrying capacity, adult mortality, the transmission parameter among adults and additional disease-induced mortality impact the maintenance of LASV in M. natalensis most, with carrying capacity and adult mortality potentially changeable owing to human activities and interventions.

Reservoir displacement by an invasive rodent reduces Lassa virus zoonotic spillover risk.

The black rat (Rattus rattus) is a globally invasive species that has been widely introduced across Africa. Within its invasive range in West Africa, R. rattus may compete with the native rodent Mastomys natalensis, the primary reservoir host of Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that kills thousands annually. Here, we use rodent trapping data from Sierra Leone and Guinea to show that R. rattus presence reduces M. natalensis density within the human dwellings where Lassa virus exposure is most likely to occur. Further, we integrate infection data from M. natalensis to demonstrate that Lassa virus zoonotic spillover risk is lower at sites with R. rattus. While non-native species can have numerous negative effects on ecosystems, our results suggest that R. rattus invasion has the indirect benefit of decreasing zoonotic spillover of an endemic pathogen, with important implications for invasive species control across West Africa.

Inoculation route-dependent Lassa virus dissemination and shedding dynamics in the natural reservoir - Mastomys natalensis.

Lassa virus (LASV), a Risk Group-4 zoonotic haemorrhagic fever virus, affects sub-Saharan African countries. Lassa fever, caused by LASV, results in thousands of annual deaths. Although decades have elapsed since the identification of the Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) as a natural reservoir of LASV, little effort has been made to characterize LASV infection in its reservoir. The natural route of infection and transmission of LASV within M. natalensis remains unknown, and the clinical impact of LASV in M. natalensis is mostly undescribed. Herein, using an outbred colony of M. natalensis, we investigate the replication and dissemination dynamics of LASV in this reservoir following various inoculation routes. Inoculation with LASV, regardless of route, resulted in a systemic infection and accumulation of abundant LASV-RNA in many tissues. LASV infection in the Natal multimammate mice was subclinical, however, clinical chemistry values were transiently altered and immune infiltrates were observed histologically in lungs, spleens and livers, indicating a minor disease with coordinated immune responses are elicited, controlling infection. Intranasal infection resulted in unique virus tissue dissemination dynamics and heightened LASV shedding, compared to subcutaneous inoculation. Our study provides important insights into LASV infection in its natural reservoir using a contemporary infection system, demonstrating that specific inoculation routes result in disparate dissemination outcomes, suggesting intranasal inoculation is important in the maintenance of LASV in the natural reservoir, and emphasizes that selection of the appropriate inoculation route is necessary to examine aspects of viral replication, transmission and responses to zoonotic viruses in their natural reservoirs.

Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria.

Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease's true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning.

Domestic risk factors for increased rodent abundance in a Lassa fever endemic region of rural Upper Guinea.

Lassa fever (LF) is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa and spread primarily by the multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis. As there is no vaccine, reduction of rodent-human transmission is essential for disease control. As the household is thought to be a key site of transmission, understanding domestic risk factors for M. natalensis abundance is crucial. Rodent captures in conjunction with domestic surveys were carried out in 6 villages in an area of rural Upper Guinea with high LF endemicity. 120 rodent traps were set in rooms along a transect in each village for three nights, and the survey was administered in each household on the transects. This study was able to detect several domestic risk factors for increased rodent abundance in rural Upper Guinea. Regression analysis demonstrated that having > 8 holes (RR = 1.8 [1.0004-3.2, p = 0.048), the presence of rodent burrows (RR = 2.3 [1.6-3.23, p = 0.000003), and being in a multi-room square building (RR = 2.0 [1.3-2.9], p = 0.001) were associated with increased rodent abundance. The most addressable of these may be rodent burrows, as burrow patching is a relatively simple process that may reduce rodent entry. Further study is warranted to explicitly link domestic rodent abundance to LF risk, to better characterize domestic risk factors, and to evaluate how household rodent-proofing interventions could contribute to LF control.

Establishment of a Genetically Confirmed Breeding Colony of Mastomys natalensis from Wild-Caught Founders from West Africa.

Mastomys natalensis are a ubiquitous and often dominant rodent across sub-Saharan Africa. Importantly, they are a natural reservoir for microbial pathogens including Lassa virus (LASV), the etiological agent of Lassa fever in humans. Lassa-infected rodents have been documented across West Africa and coincide with regions where annual outbreaks occur. Zoonotic transmission to humans most often occurs directly from infected rodents. Little is known about LASV infection kinetics and transmissibility in M.natalensis, primarily due to available animals. Here, we describe the establishment of a laboratory breeding colony of genetically confirmed M.natalensis from wild-captured rodents. This colony will provide a convenient source of animals to study LASV and other emerging pathogens that utilize M. natalensis in their enzootic lifecycles.

The niche of One Health approaches in Lassa fever surveillance and control.

Lassa fever (LF), a zoonotic illness, represents a public health burden in West African countries where the Lassa virus (LASV) circulates among rodents. Human exposure hinges significantly on LASV ecology, which is in turn shaped by various parameters such as weather seasonality and even virus and rodent-host genetics. Furthermore, human behaviour, despite playing a key role in the zoonotic nature of the disease, critically affects either the spread or control of human-to-human transmission. Previous estimations on LF burden date from the 80s and it is unclear how the population expansion and the improvement on diagnostics and surveillance methods have affected such predictions. Although recent data have contributed to the awareness of epidemics, the real impact of LF in West African communities will only be possible with the intensification of interdisciplinary efforts in research and public health approaches. This review discusses the causes and consequences of LF from a One Health perspective, and how the application of this concept can improve the surveillance and control of this disease in West Africa.

Immunological screening of Lassa Virus among Health workers and Contacts of patients of Lassa fever in Ondo State.

BACKGROUND: The increasing trends of morbidity and mortality of Lassa fever is becoming more alarming in Nigeria. Information about immune response to the virus is limited. At exposure, the level of immunity plays a vital role in the vulnerability of individuals infected. OBJECTIVE: Investigating the immune status of health workers, infected cases and contacts of infected cases of Lassa fever in Ondo State. STUDY DESIGN: Blood samples were collected from 233 individuals comprising 102 health workers, 22 infected cases and 109 contacts of infected cases from Owo and Ose Local Government Areas and transported in triple level packaging. Plasma samples were analyzed for IgG and IgM markers using ReLASV® Pan-Lassa NP IgG/IgM ELISA Kit (Zalgen Labs, LLC, USA) while RNAs extracted from IgM positive samples were analyzed for LASV RNA according to manufacturers' instructions. RESULT: Among the health workers, 20/102 (19.6%) and 2/102 (2.0%) were IgG and IgM positive respectively. While 16/22 (72.7%) and 14/22 (63.6%) were IgG and IgM positive respectively among the infected cases. Of the contacts of infected cases screened, 64/109 (58.7%) were IgG positive while 4/109 (3.7%) were positive for IgM. There was no detectable LASV RNA in the samples analyzed. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that majority of the health workers are naïve to the virus and hence may be prone to the viral infection. It could also be suggestive that a good personal protective procedure is been practiced by the health workers, hence the low exposure. However, most of the contacts of infected cases show exposure to the virus.

Bridging the gap: Using reservoir ecology and human serosurveys to estimate Lassa virus spillover in West Africa.

Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.

Hunting and consumption of rodents by children in the Lassa fever endemic area of Faranah, Guinea.

As a consequence of the Ebola outbreak, human-animal contact has gained importance for zoonotic transmission surveillance. In Faranah (Upper Guinea), daily life is intertwined with rodents, such as the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis; a reservoir for Lassa virus (LASV). However, this contact is rarely perceived as a health risk by residents, although Lassa fever (LF) is known to be endemic to this region. Conversely, these observations remain a great concern for global health agendas. Drawing on ethnographic research involving interviews, focus group discussions, participant observations, and informal discussions over four months, we first identified factors that motivated children to hunt and consume rodents in Faranah villages, and thereafter, explored the knowledge of LF infection in children and their parents. Furthermore, we studied two dimensions of human-rodent encounters: 1) space-time of interaction and 2) factors that allowed the interaction to occur and their materiality. This approach allowed us to contextualize child-rodent contacts beyond domestic limits in the fallow fields, swamps, and at other times for this practice. A close look at these encounters provided information on rodent trapping, killing, and manipulation of cooking techniques and the risk these activities posed for the primary transmission of LASV. This research facilitated the understanding of children's exposure to M. natalensis during hunting sessions and the importance of rodent hunting, which is a part of their boyish identity in rural areas. Determination of when, where, why, and how children, rodents, and environments interacted allowed us to understand the exposures and risks important for human and animal surveillance programs in the Lassa-endemic region.

Infection pattern, case fatality rate and spread of Lassa virus in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic infectious disease of public concern in Nigeria. The infection dynamics of the disease is not well elucidated in Nigeria. This study was carried out to describe the pattern of infection, case fatality rate and spread of lassa virus (LASV) from 2017 to 2020. METHODS: Weekly epidemiological data on LF from December, 2016 to September, 2020 were obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. The number of confirmed cases and deaths were computed according to months and states. Descriptive statistics was performed and case fatality rate was calculated. Distribution and spread maps of LF over the four years period was performed on ArcMap 10.7. RESULTS: A total of 2787 confirmed cases and 516 deaths were reported in Nigeria from December, 2016 to September, 2020. Increase in number of cases and deaths were observed with 298, 528, 796 and 1165 confirmed cases and 79, 125, 158 and 158 deaths in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. Over 60% of the cases were reported in two states, Edo and Ondo states. The LF cases spread from 19 states in 2017 to 32 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 2020. Ondo state (25.39%) had the highest of deaths rate from LF over the four years. Case fatality rate (CFR) of LF was highest in 2017 (26.5%) with CFR of 23.7, 19.6 and 13.4% in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. The peak of infection was in the month of February for the four years. Infections increases at the onset of dry season in November and decline till April when the wet season sets-in. CONCLUSION: There is an annual increase in the number of LASV infection across the states in Nigeria. There is need to heighten control strategies through the use of integrated approach, ranging from vector control, health education and early diagnosis.

An exploration of the protective effect of rodent species richness on the geographical expansion of Lassa fever in West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever (LF) is one of the most devastating rodent-borne diseases in West Africa, causing thousands of deaths annually. The geographical expansion of LF is also a concern; cases were recently identified in Ghana and Benin. Previous ecological studies have suggested that high natural-host biodiversity reduces the likelihood of spillover transmission of rodent-borne diseases, by suppressing the activities of reservoir species. However, the association of biodiversity with the geographical expansion of LF has not been the subject of epidemiological studies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a spatial analysis based on sociodemographic, geographical, and ecological data, and found that higher rodent species richness was significantly associated with a lower risk of LF emergence in West Africa from 2008 to 2017 (Odds Ratio = 0.852, 95% Credible Interval = 0.745-0.971). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results reinforce the importance of the 'One Health' approach by demonstrating that a high level of biodiversity could benefit human health.

Descriptive epidemiology of Lassa fever in Nigeria, 2012-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Lassa fever, an acute viral hemorrhagic zoonotic disease is endemic in some parts of Nigeria. The disease alert and outbreak threshold are known; however, there has been a shift from the previous seasonal transmission pattern to an all year-round transmission. We described data on Lassa fever and highlighted the magnitude of the disease over a six-year period. METHODS: we conducted a secondary data analyses of Lassa fever specific surveillance data from the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) records of all states in Nigeria over a six-year period (2012-2017). RESULTS: a total of 5974 suspected cases were reported within the study period; of these, 759 (12.7%) were confirmed by laboratory diagnosis. Highest number of cases was recorded in 2012. Edo and Ondo states in the southern region of the country were mostly affected within the study period. The seasonal trend of Lassa fever cases showed peaks within January to March, except for year 2015. CONCLUSION: there was a high burden of Lassa fever in Nigeria especially in the southern part. Lassa fever transmission occurs all year-round with peaks in January and March. There is need to develop preparedness plans and define thresholds for Lassa fever epidemic.

Lassa fever in Benin: description of the 2014 and 2016 epidemics and genetic characterization of a new Lassa virus.

We report two outbreaks of Lassa fever that occurred in Benin in 2014 and 2016 with 20 confirmed cases and 50% (10/20) mortality. Benin was not previously considered to be an endemic country for Lassa fever, resulting in a delay to diagnose the disease and its human transmission. Molecular investigations showed the viral genomes to be similar to that of the Togo strain, which is genetically very different from other known strains and confirms the existence of a new lineage. Endemic circulation of Lassa virus in a new territory and the genetic diversity thus confirm that this virus represents a growing threat for West African people. Given the divergence of the Benin strain from the prototypic Josiah Sierra Leone strain frequently used to generate vaccine candidates, the efficacy of vaccine candidates should also be demonstrated with this strain.

Fatal Case of Lassa Fever, Bangolo District, Côte d'Ivoire, 2015.

Lassa fever has not been reported in Côte d'Ivoire. We performed a retrospective analysis of human serum samples collected in Côte d'Ivoire in the dry seasons (January-April) during 2015-2018. We identified a fatal human case of Lassa fever in the Bangolo District of western Côte d'Ivoire during 2015.

Phylogeography of Lassa Virus in Nigeria.

Lassa virus is genetically diverse with several lineages circulating in West Africa. This study aimed at describing the sequence variability of Lassa virus across Nigeria and inferring its spatiotemporal evolution. We sequenced and isolated 77 Lassa virus strains from 16 Nigerian states. The final data set, including previous works, comprised metadata and sequences of 219 unique strains sampled between 1969 and 2018 in 22 states. Most of this data originated from Lassa fever patients diagnosed at Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Edo State, Nigeria. The majority of sequences clustered with the main Nigerian lineages II and III, while a few sequences formed a new cluster related to Lassa virus strains from Hylomyscus pamfi Within lineages II and III, seven and five sublineages, respectively, were distinguishable. Phylogeographic analysis suggests an origin of lineage II in the southeastern part of the country around Ebonyi State and a main vector of dispersal toward the west across the Niger River, through Anambra, Kogi, Delta, and Edo into Ondo State. The frontline of virus dispersal appears to be in Ondo. Minor vectors are directed northeast toward Taraba and Adamawa and south toward Imo and Rivers. Lineage III might have spread from northern Plateau State into Kaduna, Nasarawa, Federal Capital Territory, and Bauchi. One sublineage moved south and crossed the Benue River into Benue State. This study provides a geographic mapping of lineages and phylogenetic clusters in Nigeria at a higher resolution. In addition, we estimated the direction and time frame of virus dispersal in the country.IMPORTANCE Lassa virus is the causative agent of Lassa fever, a viral hemorrhagic fever with a case fatality rate of approximately 30% in Africa. Previous studies disclosed a geographical pattern in the distribution of Lassa virus strains and a westward movement of the virus across West Africa during evolution. Our study provides a deeper understanding of the geography of genetic lineages and sublineages of the virus in Nigeria. In addition, we modeled how the virus spread in the country. This knowledge allows us to predict into which geographical areas the virus might spread in the future and prioritize areas for Lassa fever surveillance. Our study not only aimed to generate Lassa virus sequences from across Nigeria but also to isolate and conserve the respective viruses for future research. Both isolates and sequences are important for the development and evaluation of medical countermeasures to treat and prevent Lassa fever, such as diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines.

A short history of Lassa fever: the first 10-15 years after discovery.

This brief review is focused on the events surrounding the initial discovery of a new viral hemorrhagic fever in 1969 and the subsequent 10-15 years during which a substantial understanding of the disease was gained. In 1969, a series of sequential life-threating or fatal infections occurred among health care workers in Nigeria and the laboratory scientist who isolated and characterized the causative agent. The agent, Lassa virus was named after the geographical location of the first recognized human case. The new virus was shown to be related to lymphocytic choriomeningitis and to previously unclassified neotropical viruses, including Argentine and Bolivian hemorrhagic fevers, and a new taxonomic grouping, the Arenaviruses, was proposed. In 1970-72, three further epidemics occurred in Nigeria, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the first two involved nosocomial transmission, and the third was a community-based outbreak, during which the rodent reservoir host was identified. In 1976, a long-term research project commenced in Sierra Leone, which produced a rich body of data from prospectively designed studies on the clinical features, transmission, and treatment of the disease.

Quantifying the seasonal drivers of transmission for Lassa fever in Nigeria.

Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic disease that is widespread in West Africa and involves animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission. Animal-to-human transmission occurs upon exposure to rodent excreta and secretions, i.e. urine and saliva, and human-to-human transmission occurs via the bodily fluids of an infected person. To elucidate the seasonal drivers of LF epidemics, we employed a mathematical model to analyse the datasets of human infection, rodent population dynamics and climatological variations and capture the underlying transmission dynamics. The surveillance-based incidence data of human cases in Nigeria were explored, and moreover, a mathematical model was used for describing the transmission dynamics of LF in rodent populations. While quantifying the case fatality risk and the rate of exposure of humans to animals, we explicitly estimated the corresponding contact rate of humans with infected rodents, accounting for the seasonal population dynamics of rodents. Our findings reveal that seasonal migratory dynamics of rodents play a key role in regulating the cyclical pattern of LF epidemics. The estimated timing of high exposure of humans to animals coincides with the time shortly after the start of the dry season and can be associated with the breeding season of rodents in Nigeria. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.