Evaluating Firearm Violence After New Jersey's Cash Bail Reform.

Importance: Reducing the pretrial detention population has been a cornerstone of movements to end mass incarceration. Across many US cities, there are ongoing public debates on policies that would end pretrial detention due to the inability to afford bail, with some raising concerns that doing so would increase community violence. Objective: To evaluate changes in firearm violence after New Jersey's 2017 bail reform policy that eliminated financial barriers to avoiding pretrial detention. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study used synthetic control methods to examine changes in firearm mortality and combined fatal and nonfatal shootings in New Jersey (2014-2019). New Jersey was chosen because it was one of the first states to systematically implement cash bail reform. Outcomes in New Jersey were compared with a weighted combination of 36 states that did not implement any kind of reform to pretrial detention during the study period. Data were analyzed from April 2023 to March 2024. Exposure: Implementation of New Jersey's cash bail reform law in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Quarterly rates of fatal and nonfatal firearm assault injuries and firearm self-harm injuries per 100 000 people. Results: Although New Jersey's pretrial detention population dramatically decreased under bail reform, the study did not find evidence of increases in overall firearm mortality (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.26 deaths per 100 000) or gun violence (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.24 deaths per 100 000), or within racialized groups during the postpolicy period. Conclusions and Relevance: Incarceration and gun violence are major public health problems impacting racially and economically marginalized groups. Cash bail reform may be an important tool for reducing pretrial detention and advancing health equity without exacerbating community violence.

Firearm Homicide Demographics Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This cross-sectional study evaluates changes in firearm homicide demographics before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Historical Redlining and Present-Day Nonsuicide Firearm Fatalities.

BACKGROUND: Redlining began in the 1930s with the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC); this discriminatory practice limited mortgage availability and reinforced concentrated poverty that still exists today. It is important to understand the potential health implications of this federally sanctioned segregation. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between historical redlining policies and present-day nonsuicide firearm fatalities. DESIGN: Maps from the HOLC were overlaid with incidence of nonsuicide firearm fatalities from 2014 to 2022. A multilevel negative binomial regression model tested the association between modern-day firearm fatalities and HOLC historical grading (A ["best"] to D ["hazardous"]), controlling for year, HOLC area-level demographics, and state-level factors as fixed effects and a random intercept for city. Incidence rates (IRs) per 100 000 persons, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and adjusted IRRs (aIRRs) for each HOLC grade were estimated using A-rated areas as the reference. SETTING: 202 cities with areas graded by the HOLC in the 1930s. PARTICIPANTS: Population of the 8597 areas assessed by the HOLC. MEASUREMENTS: Nonsuicide firearm fatalities. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2022, a total of 41 428 nonsuicide firearm fatalities occurred in HOLC-graded areas. The firearm fatality rate increased as the HOLC grade progressed from A to D. In A-graded areas, the IR was 3.78 (95% CI, 3.52 to 4.05) per 100 000 persons per year. In B-graded areas, the IR, IRR, and aIRR relative to A areas were 7.43 (CI, 7.24 to 7.62) per 100 000 persons per year, 2.12 (CI, 1.94 to 2.32), and 1.42 (CI, 1.30 to 1.54), respectively. In C-graded areas, these values were 11.24 (CI, 11.08 to 11.40) per 100 000 persons per year, 3.78 (CI, 3.47 to 4.12), and 1.90 (CI, 1.75 to 2.07), respectively. In D-graded areas, these values were 16.26 (CI, 16.01 to 16.52) per 100 000 persons per year, 5.51 (CI, 5.05 to 6.02), and 2.07 (CI, 1.90 to 2.25), respectively. LIMITATION: The Gun Violence Archive relies on media coverage and police reports. CONCLUSION: Discriminatory redlining policies from 80 years ago are associated with nonsuicide firearm fatalities today. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Fred Lovejoy Housestaff Research and Education Fund.

Demographic analysis of the suicide method by gender and age of the deceased between 2001 and 2010. / Analiza demograficzna metody samobójstwa z uwzglednieniem plci oraz wieku zmarlych w latach 2001-2010.

Aim: AAnalysis of the choice of suicide method by gender and age of the deceased. Material and methods: The study presented here was based on a retrospective analysis of autopsy reports from the years 2001-2010 in the Department of Forensic Medicine of the Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum in Kraków. The basis of the research work conducted was the collection and extensive analysis of cases of suicide deaths. Subsequently, a preference analysis of the choice of suicide method was conducted, taking into account the age and gender of the deceased. The statistical analysis performed used logistic regression in Excel's XLSTAT as an analysis tool. Results: A total of 2,073 suicide cases were collected from the time frame under discussion. The predominant method of suicide was hanging (1524 cases, 1329 men and 195 women), the second most common method was jumping from the roof or window of a high floor of a building (jumping from heights; 171 cases, 100 men, 71 women). A statistically significant correlation of suicide method with gender was found for: hanging [odds ratio (OR) male (M) vs. female (F) = 3. 4; confidence interval (CI) = 2.7-4.3; p0.001]; drowning [OR: M/F =4.1; CI = 2.6-6.4; p0.001]; jumping from heights [OR: M/F=4.1; CI=2.9-5.7; p0.001] and poisoning [OR: M/F=3.2; CI = 2.1-4.9]. Suicide with the use of firearms occurred exclusively in the case of men (40 cases). The age of the victims correlated with the method of committing suicide by jumping from heights [0R=0.98; CI=0.97-0.99; p0.001] and rail suicide [OR=0.98; CI=0.96-0.99; p0.001]. Conclusions: The study revealed that both age and gender have a significant impact on the choice of suicide method. According to available epidemiological data and the authors' predictions, a predominance of male over female sex was observed in the case of hanging, while jumping from heights was relatively more often chosen by women. The elderly were less likely to choose jumping from heights and rail suicide.

Fatal Police Shootings of Victims with Mental Health Crises: A Descriptive Analysis of Data from the 2014-2015 National Violent Death Reporting System.

One in five fatal police shooting victims may have been experiencing a mental health crisis (MHC) at the time of their death [1]. We use data on fatal police shootings from the National Violent Death Reporting System (2014-2015) to (a) identify incidents where the victim is reported to have experienced an MHC at the time of their death, (b) describe the characteristics of these incidents, and (c) compare the characteristics of MHC to fatal police shootings where the victim was not experiencing an MHC at the time of their death. We systematically coded 633 fatal police shootings from 27 states. Descriptive statistics characterized fatal police shootings, including victim characteristics; their mental health status; and contextual information regarding the police encounter (e.g., reason for police call). Overall, 203 of 633 fatal police encounters (32%) involved victims who showed signs of an MHC at the time of their death. Victims were predominantly white, male, and in possession of a firearm. In 3 of 4 cases, the MHC manifested as suicidal ideation despite any relevant documented history among most victims. Among half of suicidal victims, suicidal ideation was expressed verbally and in-person to a family member/intimate partner who subsequently called the police. Dispatch was aware of the MHC in 1 of 4 of total police calls. Overall, fatal police encounters involving those experiencing an MHC accounted for 1 in 3 of our caseloads. Approximately, 3 of 4 mental health calls involved a suicidal person who mainly expressed intent to a loved one in-person.

Situational and Victim Correlates of Increased Case Fatality Rates in Los Angeles Shootings, 2005-2021.

The gun assault case fatality rate measures the fraction of shooting victims who die from their wounds. Considerable debate has surrounded whether gun assault case fatality rates have changed over time and what factors may be involved. We use crime event data from Los Angeles to examine the victim and situational correlates of gun assault case fatality rates over time. We estimated log binomial regression models for the probability of death in each year from 2005 to 2021, conditioned on situational and victim characteristics of the crime. Case fatality rates increased by around 1.3% per year between 2005 and 2021 from around 15.9 to 19.7%. Baseline case fatality rates differed systematically by most situational and victim but followed similar temporal trends. Only victim age significantly covaried with the temporal trend in case fatality rates. An individual shot in Los Angeles in 2021 was 23.7% more likely to die than the equivalent victim in 2005. The steady increase in case fatality rates suggests that there were around 394 excess fatalities over what would have occurred if case fatality rates remained at the 2005 level. Increases in the average age of victims over time may contribute to the general temporal trend. We hypothesize that older victims are more likely to be shot indoors where lethal close-range wounds are more likely.

Intentional child and adolescent homicides in Milan (Italy): A 30-year interdisciplinary study.

This study aims to discuss the forensic and criminological implications of child homicides in the territory of Milan, Italy. The authors present a retrospective study on all the cases of child and adolescent homicides, that were observed at the Institute of Legal Medicine of Milan (Italy) in the last 30 years (from January 1991 to December 2020). A total of 46 child homicides were collected, focusing on the sociological features, by highlighting peculiar cases, risk factors, potential changing social trends, and comparing our cases with the current literature. The analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship (p < 0.05) for male adolescents and indicated that adolescent homicides were more frequently perpetrated in extrafamilial contexts. In contrast, neonaticides and infanticides were mainly committed at home. Furthermore, the Fisher's Exact test revealed that child murders were mainly committed by immigrants in the Milan district after 2005 (p < 0.05). The two main causes of death were due to sharp and firearm injuries. While the relationship between homicide clusters and homicides committed by sharp objects was not significant, adolescent homicides were mainly committed using firearms (p < 0.05). The present study may help to identify risk factors for homicides against child and adolescent. Consequently, policies that identify, prevent, and minimize this extreme violence should be designed to interrupt the vicious circle of such dreadful murderous events. Child and adolescent homicides deserve additional focus and better education for healthcare professionals and further research should be carried out to develop therapeutic and caring strategies.

The Potential Influence of Firearm Violence on Physical Inactivity in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Despite broad recognition of the physical inactivity pandemic, little to no progress has been made in the past decade in mitigating the problem. The current analysis builds upon previous research into the drivers of physical inactivity to assess the potential interactions with firearm violence in the United States. METHODS: We merged county-level data on firearm fatality rates, physical inactivity prevalence, the Social Vulnerability Index, and the American nations regional cultures schematic. RESULTS: Counties with a physical inactivity prevalence currently above the federal government's 2030 goal (ie, ≥21.8%) had a significantly higher firearm fatality rate per 100,000 population. This finding was consistent for both the overall rate and race-based subgroups. The overall White, Hispanic, and Black firearm fatality rates were also significantly higher in the American nations group comprising Greater Appalachia, Deep South, El Norte, New France, and First Nation. Stepwise linear regression analysis revealed that the Social Vulnerability Index, American nations dichotomous grouping, and firearm fatality rate were all retained (P < .001) in predicting physical inactivity prevalence as a continuous variable. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the United States faces myriad health and societal challenges. Unhealthy lifestyles and gun violence are two of the leaders. The current analysis in conjunction with previous findings demonstrates that solving these challenges by interacting, create complexity to finding solutions that has not been thoroughly considered.

Outcomes of Hospitalized Injured Suspects Sustaining Gunshot Wounds From Law Enforcement Action.

BACKGROUND: Although firearms are implicated in the majority of law enforcement intervention (LEI)-related deaths, scientific research is lacking. The present study sought to characterize clinical and financial outcomes between injured suspects and other gunshot wound (GSW) patients. STUDY DESIGN: The 2016-2020 National Inpatient Sample was queried for patients ≥16 years old admitted following GSW. Patients were categorized as injured suspects (ISs) if they were injured in LEI and non-IS otherwise. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality with complications, hospitalization duration (LOS), and costs secondarily considered. Multivariable regression models were used to adjust for patient characteristics, injury burden using the Trauma Mortality Prediction Model (TMPM), and hospital factors. RESULTS: Of 143,125 hospitalizations, 1575 (1.10%) were IS. Compared to non-IS, ISs were less frequently Black (24.4% vs 54.3%) but had a higher proportion of psychiatric conditions (19.4% vs 6.4%) (P < .05). Although having a similar requirement for major operations and TMPM score, ISs more frequently underwent thoracic (11.4% vs 4.1%) and gastrointestinal operations (33.0% vs 25.7%) (P < .05). After adjustment, IS was associated with similar odds of mortality but was associated with greater odds of cardiac complications, respiratory failure, and need for intensive care. While LOS was similar, IS was associated with greater costs (ß: +$14,300, 95% CI: 6,200-22,400). CONCLUSIONS: Suspects injured during law enforcement intervention have similar in-hospital mortality but greater complication rates and costs. Through the quantification of the clinical and financial burden of IS, our findings may help inform further policy discussions regarding use of potentially lethal force in law enforcement intervention.

Firearm Mortality of Non-Hispanic Black Americans by Law Enforcement, 2011-2020.

Law enforcement officers in the U.S. are more likely to use lethal force against non-Hispanic Black citizens than on their non-Hispanic White counterparts. The purpose of this study was to assess estimates of the national prevalence of fatal firearm violence by law enforcement officers (LEOs) against non-Hispanic Black Americans. The Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were analyzed using descriptive statistics and joinpoint regression from 2011 to 2020. During the decade (2011-2020) LEOs fatally shot 5,073 citizens and 1,170 were non-Hispanic Black (23%). The vast majority (96%) were males and two-thirds (66%) of those killed were ages 20-39 years. The region with the highest number of LEO fatal shootings was the Western U.S. Firearm deaths of non-Hispanic Blacks were the dominant (82%) method of LEO-induced deaths. Non-Hispanic Black Americans experience LEO firearm-related injuries and deaths at a much higher rate than their non-Hispanic White counterparts. In the context of the racial disparities among people who die following LEO-related gunshot wounds, changes to police training systems and an examination of implicit biases among LEOs should be investigated as the next step in reducing the use of lethal force practices.

Trends and Disparities in Firearm Deaths Among Children.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In 2020, firearm injuries became the leading cause of death among US children and adolescents. This study aimed to evaluate new 2021 data on US pediatric firearm deaths and disparities to understand trends compared with previous years. METHODS: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research was queried for firearm mortalities in children/adolescents from 2018 to 2021. Absolute mortality, death rates, and characteristics were reported. Death rates were defined per 100 000 persons in that population per year. Death rates across states were illustrated via geographic heat maps, and correlations with state poverty levels were calculated. RESULTS: In 2021, firearms continued to be the leading cause of death among US children. From 2018 to 2021, there was a 41.6% increase in the firearm death rate. In 2021, among children who died by firearms, 84.8% were male, 49.9% were Black, 82.6% were aged 15 to 19 years, and 64.3% died by homicide. Black children accounted for 67.3% of firearm homicides, with a death rate increase of 1.8 from 2020 to 2021. White children accounted for 78.4% of firearm suicides. From 2020 to 2021, the suicide rate increased among Black and white children, yet decreased among American Indian or Alaskan Native children. Geographically, there were worsening clusters of firearm death rates in Southern states and increasing rates in Midwestern states from 2018 to 2021. Across the United States, higher poverty levels correlated with higher firearm death rates (R = 0.76, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: US pediatric firearm deaths increased in 2021, above the spike in 2020, with worsening disparities. Implementation of prevention strategies and policies among communities at highest risk is critical.

Development of a Machine Learning Model to Estimate US Firearm Homicides in Near Real Time.

Importance: Firearm homicides are a major public health concern; lack of timely mortality data presents considerable challenges to effective response. Near real-time data sources offer potential for more timely estimation of firearm homicides. Objective: To estimate near real-time burden of weekly and annual firearm homicides in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prognostic study, anonymous, longitudinal time series data were obtained from multiple data sources, including Google and YouTube search trends related to firearms (2014-2019), emergency department visits for firearm injuries (National Syndromic Surveillance Program, 2014-2019), emergency medical service activations for firearm-related injuries (biospatial, 2014-2019), and National Domestic Violence Hotline contacts flagged with the keyword firearm (2016-2019). Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to September 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Weekly estimates of US firearm homicides were calculated using a 2-phase pipeline, first fitting optimal machine learning models for each data stream and then combining the best individual models into a stacked ensemble model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing predictions of firearm homicides in 2019 to actual firearm homicides identified by National Vital Statistics System death certificates. Results were also compared with a SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model, a common method to forecast injury mortality. Results: Both individual and ensemble models yielded highly accurate estimates of firearm homicides. Individual models' mean error for weekly estimates of firearm homicides (root mean square error) varied from 24.95 for emergency department visits to 31.29 for SARIMA forecasting. Ensemble models combining data sources had lower weekly mean error and higher annual accuracy than individual data sources: the all-source ensemble model had a weekly root mean square error of 24.46 deaths and full-year accuracy of 99.74%, predicting the total number of firearm homicides in 2019 within 38 deaths for the entire year (compared with 95.48% accuracy and 652 deaths for the SARIMA model). The model decreased the time lag of reporting weekly firearm homicides from 7 to 8 months to approximately 6 weeks. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of diverse secondary data on machine learning, ensemble modeling produced accurate near real-time estimates of weekly and annual firearm homicides and substantially decreased data source time lags. Ensemble model forecasts can accelerate public health practitioners' and policy makers' ability to respond to unanticipated shifts in firearm homicides.

Comparison of US Firearm-Related Deaths Among Children and Adolescents by Race and Ethnicity, 1999-2020.

This study assesses racial and ethnic differences in overall burden of firearm-related mortality and in change in firearm-related mortality among youths from 1999 to 2020.

The Role of Academic Medical Centers in the Prevention of Violence and Firearm-Related Morbidity and Mortality.

This Viewpoint argues that academic medical centers should address firearm violence through clinical care, education of health care professionals, research, and public policy discussions.

State Firearm Laws and Firearm-Related Mortality and Morbidity.

This Viewpoint highlights the challenges to passing federal legislation that limits gun ownership and accessibility and summarizes some of the state laws used to successfully lower rates of firearm-related death and injury.

Pediatric craniocerebral gunshot injuries: A National Trauma Database study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the outcomes and prognostic factors in pediatric craniocerebral gunshot injury (CGI) patients. Pediatric patients may have significantly different physiology, neuroplasticity, and clinical outcomes in CGI than adults. There is limited literature on this topic, mainly case reports and small case series. METHODS: We queried the National Trauma Data Bank for all pediatric CGI between 2014 and 2017. Patients were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes. Demographic, emergency department, and clinical data were analyzed. Subgroup analysis was attempted for groups with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores of 9 to 15 and ages 0 to 8 years. RESULTS: In a 3-year period, there were 209 pediatric patients (aged 0-18 years) presenting to American hospitals with signs of life. The overall mortality rate was 53.11%. A linear relationship was demonstrated showing a mortality rate of 79% by initial GCS in GCS score of 3, 56% in GCS scores of 4 to 8, 22% in GCS scores of 9 to 12, and 5% in GCS scores of 13 to 15. The youngest patients, aged 0 to 8 years, had dramatically better initial GCS and subsequently lower mortality rates. Regression analysis showed mortality benefit in the total population for intracranial pressure monitoring (odds ratio, 0.267) and craniotomy (odds ratio, 0.232). CONCLUSION: This study uses the National Trauma Data Bank to quantify the prevalence of pediatric intracranial gunshot wounds, with the goal to determine risk factors for prognosis in this patient population. Significant effects on mortality for invasive interventions including intracranial pressure monitoring and craniotomy for all patients suggest low threshold for use of these procedures if there is any clinical concern. The presence of a 79% mortality rate in patients with GCS score of 3 on presentation suggests that as long as there is not a declared neurologic death, intracranial pressure monitoring and treatment measures including craniotomy should be considered by the consulting clinician. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and epidemiological, level III.

Firearm violence against children in the United States: Trends in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the patterns of firearm violence against children before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the patterns of specific types of firearm violence against children over time (2016-2020). METHODS: Retrospective firearm violence data were obtained from the Gun Violence Archive. The rate of firearm violence was weighted per 100,000 children. A scatterplot was created to depict the rate of total annual child-involved shooting incidents over time; with a linear trendline fit to 2016 to 2019 data to show projected versus actual 2020 firearm violence. All 50 states were categorized into either "strong gun law" (n = 25) or "weak gun law" (n = 25) cohorts. Multivariate linear regressions were performed for number of child-involved shootings over time. RESULTS: There were a total of 1,076 child-involved shootings in 2020, 811 in 2019, and 803 in 2018. The median total child-involved shooting incidents per month per 100,000 children increased from 2018 to 2020 (0.095 vs. 0.124, p = 0.003) and from 2019 to 2020 (0.097 vs. 0.124, p = 0.010). Child killed by adult incidents also increased in 2020 compared with 2018 (p = 0.024) and 2019 (p = 0.049). The scatterplot demonstrates that total child-involved shootings in addition to both fatal and nonfatal firearm violence incidents exceeded the projected number of incidents extrapolated from 2016 to 2019 data. Multivariate linear regression demonstrated that, compared with weak gun law states, strong gun law states were associated with decreased monthly total child-involved shooting incidents between 2018 and 2020 (p < 0.001), as well as between 2019 and 2020 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Child-involved shooting incidents increased significantly in 2020 surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that gun law strength was associated with a decreased rate of monthly child-involved firearm violence, public health and legislative efforts should be made to protect this vulnerable population from exposure to firearms. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Epidemiological, level III.