RESUMO
A simulation model (AUSPIG) was used to predict the effect of an increase in piglet deaths, and a reduction in growth rate and an increase in feed conversion ratio of grower pigs on the profitability of two herds representative of the Australian pig industry caused by the introduction of transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGE) into those herds. For each herd, mortality rates for piglets under 1 week of age of 50% and 95% were assumed to represent a 'moderate' and a 'severe' outbreak, respectively. A reduction in net revenue of 70% was predicted to occur in the 6 months after a 'moderate' outbreak of TGE (100% for a 'severe' outbreak). This represents a total loss of between $260 and $330 per breeding sow in the 12 months after infection with the TGE virus. The likely financial impact of an outbreak of TGE on an Australian piggery is substantial and should be considered when addressing quarantine issues.
Assuntos
Simulação por Computador , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Gastroenterite Suína Transmissível/economia , Modelos Econométricos , Animais , Austrália/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/economia , Feminino , Previsões , Gastroenterite Suína Transmissível/epidemiologia , Gastroenterite Suína Transmissível/mortalidade , Renda , Masculino , Mortalidade , Suínos , Aumento de PesoRESUMO
The possibilities of applying simulation in a study on the occurrence and effects of infectious animal disease are reported. For this purpose a model of transmissible gastroenteritis (TGE) was designed on a pig-multiplying farm. Using this model, the effects of certain management policies on the financial loss caused by TGE were quantified. It is concluded that computer simulation may be of great help in studying animal disease. It may result in better understanding of the manner in which a disease will exert its effects on the farm or on the population. Moreover, it offers an opportunity of predicting the effects of alternative procedures in prevention and control.