Health conditions of potential risk for severe Covid-19 in institutionalized elderly people.

The objective of this study was to identify the health conditions considered potential risk factors for severe Covid-19 and analyze its association with the BMI of elderly people living in Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCF). This is a descriptive and cross-sectional study, with a quantitative approach, carried out in eight LTCF in the Metropolitan Region of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, with a population of 267 elderly people, between the months of February and December 2018. The Elderly Health Handbook was used to collect data on sociodemographic, health and risk factors. The Pearson's Chi-square test and odds ratio were used for the analysis. A higher frequency of low weight was observed in elderly people with cognitive impairment (24.6%), and overweight in those hypertensive (23.3%) and diabetics (12.9%). BMI was associated with the age group of 80 years or over, hypertension and diabetes (p = 0.013; p < 0.001; p = 0.001). Hypertensive elderly people were more likely to have low weight when compared to non-hypertensive individuals (RC = 3.6; 95% CI 1.5-8.6). The institutionalized elderly individuals present health conditions that may contribute to the occurrence of adverse outcomes in case of infection by Covid-19. The importance of protective measures for this population must be reinforced, in view of the devastating action of this disease in these institutions.

Exercise of human rights of institutionalized persons: perception of psychiatric hospital professionals.

OBJECTIVE: to comprehend the existing possibilities for the exercise of human rights by persons with mental disorders who are institutionalized in a psychiatric hospital, from the perception of professionals. METHOD: this is a qualitative descriptive-exploratory study conducted at a Psychiatric Hospital in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. For data obtention, eleven professionals responded to a semistructured questionnaire. The traditional content analysis proposed by Bardin based the data analysis. RESULTS: the professionals know the human rights and try to preserve them in the hospital scope, although they recognize that the persons hospitalized are not entirely respected due to the lack of public policies or their non-suitability to the Brazilian reality. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: the structuring of extra-hospital services is necessary, as well as the comprehension of the professionals that act in psychiatric hospitals about the objectives and the functioning of such devices to assure opportunities of exercising rights by institutionalized persons.

A survey of national trends in psychiatric patients found incompetent to stand trial: reasons for the reinstitutionalization of people with serious mental illness in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Recent information indicates that the number of forensic patients in state hospitals has been increasing, largely driven by an increase in patients referred to state hospitals as incompetent to stand trial (IST). This survey was intended to broaden the understanding of IST population trends on a national level. METHODS: The authors developed a 30-question survey to gather specific information on IST commitments in each state and the District of Columbia. The survey was administered to all 50 states and the District of Columbia via email. Specific individuals identified as primary administrators responsible for the care and evaluation of IST admissions in each state were contacted. RESULTS: A total of 50 out of the 51 jurisdictions contacted completed the survey. Fully 82% of states indicated that referrals for competency evaluation were increasing. Additionally, 78% of respondents thought referrals for competency restoration were increasing. When asked to rank factors that led to an increase, the highest ranked response was inadequate general mental health services in the community. Inadequate crisis services were the second ranked reason. Inadequate number of inpatient psychiatric beds in the community was the third highest, with inadequate assertive community treatment services ranking fourth. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the national trend and causes behind the recent surge in referrals for IST admissions will benefit states searching for ways to remedy this crisis. Our survey indicates most states are facing this issue, and that it is largely related to insufficient services in the community.

The good death and the institutionalisation of dying: An interpretive analysis of the Austrian discourse.

The institutionalisation of dying is recurrently assessed as adverse to a good death. However, a majority of people die in institutions such as hospitals or nursing homes and end-of-life care at home is more and more professionally supported. This article analyses how the discursive production of dying, the good death, and the issue of institutionalisation at the end of life are interrelated. The study empirically investigates a parliamentary enquiry on dying with dignity that took place in Austria between 2014 and 2015. It employs the Sociology of Knowledge Approach to Discourse to analyse parliamentary documents and minutes, written statements submitted by individuals and organisations, as well as newspaper articles. Data analysis shows a restrictive and a permissive normative position considering both killing on request and assisted suicide. Apart from their different political demands, they both reproduce a discourse constructing dying as a longer lasting and painful process striking old or ill people. In order to enable a good death, the dying person needs comprehensive support that the informal social environment is incapable to provide. Thereby, institutionalisation is associated with negative characteristics and at the same time identified as requirement for a good death considering its role in pain management and provision of care. The analysis interprets the call for institutionalisation in the context of medicalisation and the central role of physicians to alleviate pain. The article proposes a differentiated view on institutionalisation processes and practices in end-of-life care, also reflecting the potential of institutionalisation to obstruct fundamental societal transformation.

Early family adversity, stability and consistency of institutional care and infant cognitive, language and motor development across the first six months of institutionalization.

This study extends research on the effects of institutionalization-by examining the trajectories of cognitive, language and motor development of 64 Portuguese infants and toddlers across the first six months of institutionalization, while determining whether pre-institutional adversities and the stability and consistency of institutional care predict children's development. At time of enrollment, 23.4%, 32.8% and 31.3% of the children were moderately to severely delayed, respectively, in their cognitive, linguistic and motor functioning. Developmental problems persisted after six months of institutionalization. The accumulation of early pre-institutional adversities predicted cognitive and motor limitations at admission to the institutions, but not variation in subsequent development. The stability and consistency of institutional care also failed to predict developmental growth and change. Children who had never lived with their families of origin showed a better language development at enrollment than their counterparts who had lived with their families of origin before institutionalization. Such advantage was followed by a deceleration in language growth after six months of institutional placement. Results are discussed in terms of short- vs. longer-term effects of institutionalization.

Analysis of Functional and Cognitive Impairment in Institutionalized Individuals with Movement Disorders.

BACKGROUND: Many neurological disorders lead to institutionalization and can be accompanied in their advanced stages by functional impairment, and progressive loss of mobility, and cognitive alterations. OBJECTIVE: We analyzed the relationship between functional impairment and cognitive performance and its related subdomains in individuals with Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease accompanied by motor dysfunction, and with other neurological disorders characterized by both motor and cognitive problems. METHODS: All participants lived in nursing homes (Valencia, Spain) and underwent cognitive evaluation with the Mini-Mental State Examination; functional assessment of independence in activities of daily living using the Barthel score and Katz index; and assessment of mobility with the elderly mobility scale. RESULTS: The mean age of the subjects was 82.8 ± 0.6 years, 47% of the sample included individuals with Parkinson's disease, and 48 % of the sample presented severe cognitive impairment. Direct significant relationships were found between the level of cognitive impairment and functional capacity (p < 0.01) and mobility (p < 0.05). Among the different domains, memory impairment was not associated with altered activities of daily living or mobility. The functional impairment and the risk of severe cognitive impairment were significantly (p<0.05) higher in female compared to male patients. Among comorbidities, overweight/obesity and diabetes were significantly (p < 0.05) associated with poor cognitive performance in those individuals with mild/moderate cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION: In institutionalized individuals with movement disorders there is an association between functional and cognitive impairment. Reduction of over-weight and proper control of diabetes may represent novel targets for improving cognitive function at such early stages.

Factors Related to the Institutionalization of Older Aged Individuals Using Home- and Community-Based Care Services: Data From the South Korea Long-Term Care Insurance Program, 2008-2013.

South Korea introduced a public long-term care insurance (LTCI) program in response to its rapidly aging population. This study analyzed the association between living arrangement and caregiver type with institutionalization in LTCI grade 1 (very severe limitations), 2 (severe limitations), and 3 (moderate limitations) beneficiaries using data from the LTCI cohort, 2008 to 2013. The dependent variable was alteration status from home to institutional care within 1 year of receiving home service. Independent variables were living arrangement and primary caregiver type. The analysis was conducted using the generalized estimating equation model. Higher likelihoods of institutionalization were found in individuals living with a non-family member compared to individuals living with their spouses. Individuals without a caregiver or with a paid caregiver were also more likely to experience institutionalization than individuals with a spouse primary caregiver. Our findings underscore the importance of monitoring identified vulnerable groups of individuals to attain LTCI sustainability and enhance elderly quality of life.

What drives changes in institutionalised mental health care? A qualitative study of the perspectives of professional experts.

BACKGROUND: Since 1990, the provision of mental healthcare has changed substantially across Western Europe. There are fewer psychiatric hospital beds and more places in forensic psychiatric hospitals and residential facilities. However, little research has investigated the drivers behind these changes. This study explored qualitatively the perspectives of mental health professional experts on what has driven the changes in Western Europe. METHODS: In-depth interviews were conducted with twenty-four mental health experts in England, Germany and Italy, who as professionals had personal experiences of the changes in their country. Interviewees were asked about drivers of changes in institutionalised mental health care from 1990 to 2010. The accounts were subjected to a thematic analysis. RESULTS: Four broad themes were revealed: the overall philosophy of de-institutionalisation, with the aim to overcome old-fashioned asylum style care; finances, with a pressure to limit expenditure and an interest of provider organisations to increase income; limitations of community mental health care in which most severely ill patients may be neglected; and emphasis on risk containment so that patients posing a risk may be cared for in institutions. Whilst all themes were mentioned in all three countries, there were also differences in emphasis and detail. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct factors appear to have influenced changes in mental health care. Their precise influence may vary from country to country, and they have to be considered in the context of each country. The drivers may be influenced by professional groups to some extent, but also depend on the overall interest and attitudes in the society at large.

Environmental factors and risk of delirium in geriatric patients: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with delirium have increased risk of death, dementia and institutionalization, and prognosis differs between delirium motor subtypes. A few studies have identified associations between environmental factors like room-transfers and time spent in the emergency department (ED) and delirium, but no studies have investigated if environmental factors may influence delirium motor subtypes. We wanted to explore if potentially stressful events like ward-transfers, arriving ED at nighttime, time spent in ED and nigthttime investigations were associated with development of delirium (incident delirium) and delirium motor subtypes. METHODS: We used the DSM-5 criteria to diagnose delirium and the Delirium Motor Subtype Scale for motor subtyping. We defined hyperactive and mixed delirium as delirium with hyperactive symptoms, and hypoactive and no-subtype delirium as delirium without hyperactive symptoms. We registered ward-transfers, time of arrival in ED, time spent in ED and nighttime investigations (8 p.m. to 8 a.m.), and calculated Global Deterioration Scale (GDS) and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS) to adjust for cognitive impairment and comorbidity. We used logistic regression analyses with incident delirium and delirium with hyperactive symptoms as outcome variables, and ward-transfers, arriving ED at nighttime, time spent in ED and nighttime investigations as exposure variables, adjusting for age, GDS and CIRS in the analyses for incident delirium. RESULTS: We included 254 patients, mean age 86.1 years (SD 5.2), 49 (19.3%) had incident delirium, 22 with and 27 without hyperactive symptoms. There was a significant association between nighttime investigations and incident delirium in both the unadjusted (odds ratio (OR) 2.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17 to 4.22, p = 0.015) and the multiadjusted model (OR 2.61, CI 1.26 to 5.40, p = 0.010). There were no associations between any other exposure variables and incident delirium. No exposure variables were associated with delirium motor subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: Nighttime investigations were associated with incident delirium, even after adjusting for age, cognitive impairment and comorbidity. We cannot out rule that the medical condition leading to nighttime investigations is the true delirium-trigger, so geriatric patients must still receive emergency investigations at nighttime. Hospital environment in broad sense may be a target for delirium prevention.

Interventions for frail community-dwelling older adults have no significant effect on adverse outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: According to some studies, interventions can prevent or delay frailty, but their effect in preventing adverse outcomes in frail community-dwelling older people is unclear. The aim is to investigate the effect of an intervention on adverse outcomes in frail older adults. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and Social Sciences Citation Index. Randomized controlled studies that aimed to treat frail community-dwelling older adults, were included. The outcomes were mortality, hospitalization, formal health costs, accidental falls, and institutionalization. Several sub-analyses were performed (duration of intervention, average age, dimension, recruitment). RESULTS: Twenty-five articles (16 original studies) were included. Six types of interventions were found. The pooled odds ratios (OR) for mortality when allocated in the experimental group were 0.99 [95% CI: 0.79, 1.25] for case management and 0.78 [95% CI: 0.41, 1.45] for provision information intervention. For institutionalization, the pooled OR with case management was 0.92 [95% CI: 0.63, 1.32], and the pooled OR for information provision intervention was 1.53 [95% CI: 0.64, 3.65]. The pooled OR for hospitalization when allocated in the experimental group was 1.13 [95% CI: 0.95, 1.35] for case management. Further sub-analyses did not yield any significant findings. CONCLUSION: This systematic review and meta-analysis does not provide sufficient scientific evidence that interventions by frail older adults can be protective against the included adverse outcomes. A sub-analysis for some variables yielded no significant effects, although some findings suggested a decrease in adverse outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Prospero registration CRD42016035429 .

Prediction of the Future Need for Institutional Care in Finnish Older People: A Comparison of Two Birth Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: More recent birth cohorts of older people have better physical and cognitive status than earlier cohorts. As such, this could be expected to diminish the need for institutional care. The prediction of the future need for institutional care provides essential information for the planning and delivery of future care and social services as well as the resources needed. OBJECTIVE: To predict the future need for institutional care among older Finnish people born in 1940. METHODS: Representative samples of home-dwelling 70-year-olds from Turku, Finland were examined with similar methods in 1991 (those born in 1920) (n = 1,032) and in 2011 (those born in 1940) (n = 956). Predictors of institutionalization rates from the earlier 1920 cohort, together with data of sociodemographic factors, health, psychosocial and physical status, the need for help, and health behavior, were used to predict the future institutionalization rate among the 1940 cohort in this study using Cox regression models. RESULTS: Health as well as psychosocial and physical status were significantly better in the 1940 cohort compared to the earlier cohort. In the 1940 cohort, the predicted rates of institutionalization were 1.8, 10.4, and 26.0% at the ages of 80 (year 2020), 85 (year 2025), and 90 years (year 2030), respectively. At every age (80, 85, and 90 years), the predicted rates of institutionalization by Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) were about two-fold among those with MMSE scores 18-26 (3.0-38.8%) compared to those with scores 27-30 (1.6-23.7%) and those with a body mass index (BMI) <25 (2.5-34.3%) compared to those with a BMI of 25-29.9 (1.4-20.9%), and about three-fold among participants with several falls (5.3-57.0%) compared to participants with no falls (1.5-23.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The 1940 cohort performed better in health as well as psychosocial and physical status than the 1920 cohort. Nevertheless, the predicted rates of future need for institutional care were high, especially at the ages of 85 and 90 years, among those with a lowered cognitive or physical status.

Predictive performance of four frailty screening tools in community-dwelling elderly.

BACKGROUND: This study compares the performance of four frailty screening tools in predicting relevant adverse outcome (disability, institutionalization and mortality) in community-dwelling elderly. METHODS: Our study involved a secondary analysis of data from the FréLE cohort study. We focused on the following four frailty screening tools: the abbreviated Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (aCGA), the Groningen Frailty Indicator (GFI), the Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13) and the Fried scale. We used the Barberger-Gateau scale to assess disability. For comparison, we determined the capacity of these tools to predict the occurrence of disability, institutionalization or death using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We also determined the threshold at which an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity was reached. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated to compare the risk of adverse outcome in the frail versus non-frail groups. RESULTS: In total, 1643 participants were included in the mortality analyses; 1224 participants were included in the analyses of the other outcomes (74.5% of the original sample). The mean age was 77.7 years, and 48.1% of the participants were women. The prevalence of frailty in this sample ranged from 15.0% (Fried) to 52.2% (VES-13). According to the Barberger-Gateau scale, 643 (52.5%) participants were fully independent; 392 (32.0%) were mildly disabled; 118 (9.6%) were moderately disabled; and 71 (5.8%) were severely disabled. The tool with the greatest sensitivity for predicting the occurrence of disability, mortality and institutionalization was VES-13, which showed sensitivities of 91.0%, 89.7% and 92.3%, respectively. The values for the area under the curve (AUC) of the four screening tools at the proposed cut-off points ranged from 0.63 to 0.75. The odds (univariate and multivariate analysis) of developing a disability were significantly greater among the elderly identified as being frail by all four tools. CONCLUSION: The multivariate analyses showed that the VES-13 may predict the occurrence of disability, mortality and institutionalization. However, the AUC analysis showed that even this tool did not have good discriminatory ability. These findings suggest that despite the high number of frailty screening tools described in the literature, there is still a need for a screening tool with high predictive performance.

Trends in Long-Term Mortality and Morbidity in Patients with No Early Complications after Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack.

BACKGROUND: Advances in acute management and secondary prevention have reduced mortality and early recurrent risk after stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA). However, whether improved outcomes are sustained long term among those without early adverse complications is not clear. We describe trends in long-term mortality and morbidity in patients with ischemic stroke or TIA who are clinically stable at 90 days. METHODS: This is a longitudinal cohort registry study (2003-2013) of patients presenting to stroke centers in Ontario, Canada, with a stroke or TIA, with no hospitalization, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), institutionalization, or death within 90 days (N = 26,698). Primary outcomes were 1-, 3-, and 5-year age-adjusted composite rates of death, stroke or MI, and institutionalization, and secondary analyses evaluated outcomes individually. Trend tests were used to evaluate change over time. RESULTS: One-year adjusted composite rates decreased from 9.3% in 2003 to 7.4% in 2012 (trend test P = .02). Significant decreases in 3-year (P < .001) and 5-year (P = .002) composite rates were also observed. Rates of recurrent stroke decreased at 1 and 3 years (P < .01), but not 5 years (P = .21), whereas death rates declined across follow-up times. Conversely, rates of institutionalization increased at 3 and 5 years (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term mortality and morbidity post stroke and TIA have declined, confirming trends for improved long-term outcomes for patients clinically stable during the initial high-risk period. However, increased long-term rates of institutionalization also suggest that stroke and TIA patients are at risk of long-term functional decline, despite improved clinical outcomes. Further studies evaluating challenges for sustaining functional gains after stroke and TIA are required.

Instituições de longa permanência como alternativa no acolhimento das pessoas idosas / Long stay institutions as an alternative for protecting the elderly / Entidades de larga permanencia como alternativa para acoger adultos mayores

RESUMO Estudo reflexivo que enfatiza a Instituição de Longa Permanência para Idosos. Considerando a carga contextual em que se dá o processo de institucionalização em uma Instituição de Longa Permanência para Idosos, o qual é escoltado por transformações na vivência da pessoa idosa. Nessa perspectiva este estudo tem como propósito refletir sobre as Instituições de Longa Permanência como alternativa no acolhimento das pessoas idosas brasileiras. Primeiramente, expõe-se sobre o envelhecimento populacional, seguido por uma breve perspectiva histórica das Instituições de Longa Permanência e o finaliza com o processo de institucionalização da pessoa idosa nas mesmas. Embora existam definições a respeito das funções e obrigações da Instituição de Longa Permanência, a influência dos aspectos negativos na vivência das pessoas idosas institucionalizadas encontra-se implícita na maioria delas, solicitando uma reestruturação desse ambiente que tem se tornado o mundo-vida de uma demanda crescente de pessoas idosas. O processo de institucionalização e a vivência do idoso na instituição são elementos de estudo fundamentais para o alcance de um entendimento aprofundado da realidade intrínseca dessa pessoa que está escrevendo o epílogo da sua história de vida.(AU)

ABSTRACT This is a reflective study on long stay institutions for elderly population. Considering the context in which the process of institutionalization in a long-stay institution for the elderly occurs, which is escorted by changes in every-day life of the elderly population, this study aims to reflect on the long-stay institutions as an alternative of sheltering for the Brazilian elderly. First, demographic aging is analyzed, followed by a brief historical account regarding long-stay institutions, and an approach to the institutionalization process of the elderly population in these places. Although the functions and duties of long-stay institutions have been previously defined, the negative aspects that influence the experience of institutionalized elderly are evident; therefore, restructuring the environment of these type of places is necessary considering the growing demand. The institutionalization process and the experience of the elderly population admitted to these institutions are key study elements to comprehend the intrinsic reality of this population.(AU)

RESUMEN El presente es un estudio reflexivo sobre las instituciones de larga permanencia para adultos mayores. Con base en la carga contextual que se genera alrededor del proceso de institucionalización de estas personas, el cual implica una serie de cambios en su vida cotidiana, este estudio tiene como objetivo hacer una reflexión sobre la pertinencia de estos lugares como alternativa para acoger adultos mayores brasileños. En primer lugar, se hace un análisis sobre el proceso de envejecimiento de la población, seguido de un breve recuento histórico de las instituciones de larga permanencia, para finalizar con una descripción sobre el proceso de institucionalización. Si bien hay definiciones acerca de las funciones y obligaciones de este tipo de instituciones, los aspectos negativos que influyen en las experiencias de las personas mayores ya institucionalizadas son evidentes. En este sentido, es necesario reestructurar ese ambiente que se convierte en el diario vivir de estas personas, de el cual tiene una demanda cada vez mayor. El proceso de institucionalización y las experiencias de las personas mayores dentro la institución son elementos de estudio fundamentales para comprender a profundidad la realidad intrínseca de esta población.(AU)

How has the extent of institutional mental healthcare changed in Western Europe? Analysis of data since 1990.

OBJECTIVES: It has been suggested that since 1990, de-institutionalisation of mental healthcare in Western Europe has been reversed into re-institutionalisation with more forensic beds, places in protected housing services and people with mental disorders in prisons. This study aimed to identify changes in the numbers of places in built institutions providing mental healthcare in Western Europe from 1990 to 2012, and to explore the association between changes in psychiatric bed numbers and changes in other institutions. SETTINGS AND DATA: Data were identified from 11 countries on psychiatric hospital beds, forensic beds, protected housing places and prison populations. Fixed effects regression models tested the associations between psychiatric hospital beds with other institutions. RESULTS: The number of psychiatric hospital beds decreased, while forensic beds, places in protected housing and prison populations increased. Overall, the number of reduced beds exceeded additional places in other institutions. There was no evidence for an association of changes in bed numbers with changes in forensic beds and protected housing places. Panel data regression analysis showed that changes in psychiatric bed numbers were negatively associated with rising prison populations, but the significant association disappeared once adjusted for gross domestic product as a potential covariate. CONCLUSIONS: Institutional mental healthcare has substantially changed across Western Europe since 1990. There are ongoing overall trends of a decrease in the number of psychiatric hospital beds and an increase in the number of places in other institutions, including prisons. The exact association between these trends and their drivers remains unclear. More reliable data, information on the characteristics of patients in different institutions, long-term pathway analyses and effectiveness studies are required to arrive at evidence-based policies for the provision of institutional mental healthcare.

Frailty as a Predictor of Institutionalization Among Adults With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

Adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) frequently become frail earlier than the general population, resulting in higher care needs. This population is at risk for institutionalization, or re-institutionalization, into long-term care (LTC). Using a retrospective cohort design to follow 3,034 individuals (18-99 years) living in Ontario, Canada, and assessed with the Resident Assessment Instrument-Home Care, individuals were characterized with a frailty index (FI) for persons with IDD. Survival analyses determined differences in rates of admission to LTC and survival in the community. Frail individuals had greater rates of admission than non-frail individuals, adjusted HR = 2.19, 95% CI [1.81, 2.64]. The FI predicts institutionalization.

Changes in clinical outcomes for community-dwelling older people exposed to incident chronic polypharmacy: a comparison between 2001 and 2009.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of incident chronic polypharmacy on 1-year hospitalization, institutionalization, and mortality among older people and to evaluate whether or not the effect differed according to index year (2001 or 2009), sex, and age. METHODS: Data were obtained from the administrative database of the Lombardy region (Northern Italy). We compared community-dwelling elderly people with an incident exposure to chronic polypharmacy (five or more drugs during 1 month for at least 6 months in 1 year) in either index year (2001 and 2009) with not exposed elderly people in the same years. Multivariable logistic (institutionalization) and Cox (hospitalization and death) were performed including year, sex, age classes, and number of drugs as covariates and their respective interaction terms by chronic polypharmacy. RESULTS: We analyzed 1,800,257 elderly subjects in 2001 and 1,567,575 in 2009, with a prevalence of chronic polypharmacy of 1.46% and 2.86%, respectively. Overall, 1-year hospitalization, institutionalization, and mortality rates were lower in 2009 than in 2001. Chronic polypharmacy was significantly associated with the outcomes in multivariable analyses: hazard or odds ratios 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.14-1.17) for hospitalization, 1.21 (1.12-1.30) for institutionalization, and 1.11 (1.08-1.14) for death. There was no consistent effect modification by index year or sex, whereas chronic polypharmacy was no longer a risk factor for adverse outcomes among those older than 85 years (p < 0.0001 for interaction). CONCLUSIONS: Incident chronic polypharmacy remained an independent predictor of adverse outcomes among community-dwelling elderly people, despite a reduction over time of 1-year hospitalization, institutionalization, and mortality rates.

The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC): a new instrument for predicting risk of adverse outcomes in community dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND: Predicting risk of adverse healthcare outcomes, among community dwelling older adults, is difficult. The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) is a short (2-5 min), global subjective assessment of risk created to identify patients' 1-year risk of three outcomes:institutionalisation, hospitalisation and death. METHODS: We compared the accuracy and predictive ability of the RISC, scored by Public Health Nurses (PHN), to the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in a prospective cohort study of community dwelling older adults (n = 803), in two Irish PHN sectors. The area under the curve (AUC), from receiver operating characteristic curves and binary logistic regression models, with odds ratios (OR), compared the discriminatory characteristics of the RISC and CFS. RESULTS: Follow-up data were available for 801 patients. The 1-year incidence of institutionalisation, hospitalisation and death were 10.2, 17.7 and 15.6 % respectively. Patients scored maximum-risk (RISC score 3,4 or 5/5) at baseline had a significantly greater rate of institutionalisation (31.3 and 7.1 %, p < 0.001), hospitalisation (25.4 and 13.2 %, p < 0.001) and death (33.5 and 10.8 %, p < 0.001), than those scored minimum-risk (score 1 or 2/5). The RISC had comparable accuracy for 1-year risk of institutionalisation (AUC of 0.70 versus 0.63), hospitalisation (AUC 0.61 versus 0.55), and death (AUC 0.70 versus 0.67), to the CFS. The RISC significantly added to the predictive accuracy of the regression model for institutionalisation (OR 1.43, p = 0.01), hospitalisation (OR 1.28, p = 0.01), and death (OR 1.58, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Follow-up outcomes matched well with baseline risk. The RISC, a short global subjective assessment, demonstrated satisfactory validity compared with the CFS.

[The upper-limits of deinstitutionalization not yet reached]. / De grens van extramuralisering is nog niet bereikt.

The government aims at decreasing the number of elderly with disabilities in institutional care, and supplying them with homecare instead. This article provides starting points to identify the elderly for whom homecare is a realistic alternative to institutionalized care. Data from two Dutch surveys are used: the Amenities and Services Utilization Survey (AVO'07) and Elderly in Institutions (OII'08). We use a regression model that explains the use of care from several characteristics, and predict the probability to use a certain type of care for each individual. One ninth to a fifth of the elderly receiving institutional care have similar characteristics to homecare users. They are generally younger than other users of institutional care, attained higher educational levels, have higher incomes and have fewer disabilities. The prevalence of dementia is noticeably lower in this group. Domestic help, often in combination with personal care and nursing, is the most likely alternative for institutional care. Personal assistance may also prove to be an alternative, but could not be included in this research. However, there will always be a group of elderly that are more suitably and more efficiently cared for in an institutional setting. It is important that institutionalized care remains an option for this group.