Spatiotemporal Analysis of Serogroup C Meningococcal Meningitis Spread in Niger and Nigeria and Implications for Epidemic Response.

BACKGROUND: After the re-emergence of serogroup C meningococcal meningitis (MM) in Nigeria and Niger, we aimed to re-evaluate the vaccination policy used to respond to outbreaks of MM in the African meningitis belt by investigating alternative strategies using a lower incidence threshold and information about neighboring districts. METHODS: We used data on suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases in Niger and Nigeria from 2013 to 2017. We calculated global and local Moran's I-statistics to identify spatial clustering of districts with high MM incidence. We used a Pinner model to estimate the impact of vaccination campaigns occurring between 2015 and 2017 and to evaluate the impact of 3 alternative district-level vaccination strategies, compared with that currently used. RESULTS: We found significant clustering of high incidence districts in every year, with local clusters around Tambuwal, Nigeria in 2013 and 2014, Niamey, Niger in 2016, and in Sokoto and Zamfara States in Nigeria in 2017.We estimate that the vaccination campaigns implemented in 2015, 2016, and 2017 prevented 6% of MM cases. Using the current strategy but with high coverage (85%) and timely distribution (4 weeks), these campaigns could have prevented 10% of cases. This strategy required the fewest doses of vaccine to prevent a case. None of the alternative strategies we evaluated were more efficient, but they would have prevented the occurrence of more cases overall. CONCLUSIONS: Although we observed significant spatial clustering in MM in Nigeria and Niger between 2013 and 2017, there is no strong evidence to support a change in methods for epidemic response in terms of lowering the intervention threshold or targeting neighboring districts for reactive vaccination.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study.

Background. Despite the introduction of an effective serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac™), sporadic epidemics of other Neisseria meningitidis serogroups remain a concern in Africa. Polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccines may offer alternatives to current strategies that rely on routine infant vaccination with MenAfriVac plus, in the event of an epidemic, district-specific reactive campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide (PMP) vaccines. Methods. We developed an agent-based transmission model of N. meningitidis in Niger to compare the health effects and costs of current vaccination practice and 3 alternatives. Each alternative replaces MenAfriVac in the infant vaccination series with PMC and either replaces PMP with PMC for reactive campaigns or implements a one-time catch up campaign with PMC for children and young adults. Results. Over a 28-year period, replacement of MenAfriVac with PMC in the infant immunization series and of PMP in reactive campaigns would avert 63% of expected cases (95% prediction interval 49%-75%) if elimination of serogroup A is not followed by serogroup replacement. At a PMC price of $4/dose, this would cost $1412 ($81-$3510) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. If serogroup replacement occurs, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy improves to $662 (cost-saving, $2473) per DALY averted. Sensitivity analyses accounting for incomplete laboratory confirmation suggest that a catch-up PMC campaign would also meet standard cost-effectiveness thresholds. Limitations. The assumption that polyvalent vaccines offer similar protection against all serogroups is simplifying. Conclusions. The use of PMC vaccines to replace MenAfriVac in routine infant immunization and in district-specific reactive campaigns would have important health benefits and is likely to be cost-effective in Niger. An additional PMC catch-up campaign would also be cost-effective if we account for incomplete laboratory reporting.

The threat of meningococcal disease during the Hajj and Umrah mass gatherings: A comprehensive review.

The Hajj and Umrah mass gatherings represent many of the risk factors for meningococcal disease and have historically been associated with both local and international outbreaks of the disease. The implementation of strict preventative measures including mandatory meningococcal vaccination with the quadrivalent (A,C,Y,W) vaccine has prevented pilgrimage-associated meningococcal outbreaks and significantly reduced the incidence of the disease at these events. However, meningococcal disease remains an important public health threat at the Hajj and Umrah due in part to the evolving nature of the disease, characterized with diverse and varying geographic trends, fluctuations in incidence and shifts in serogroups and genotypes. In addition, the current Hajj and Umrah meningococcal disease preventative measure do not protect against all invasive serogroups and do not necessarily affect carriage and transmission as the polysaccharide vaccine is still widely used. As a consequence, these events are still susceptible to outbreaks of the disease including those due to serogroups not included in the required vaccines such as serogroups B and X. In this context, despite the global decline in incidence of meningococcal disease, including that cause by serogroup B, the increased predominance of serogroup B disease in many countries, including countries with large Muslim populations, and the emergence of serogroup X in the African meningitis belt, are particularly concerning. Continued and strict surveillance of meningococcal diseases nationally and globally, especially in Muslim countries, is essential in detecting, understanding, and predicting the changes in the epidemiology of the disease and informing appropriate prevention and control strategies during these events. The current meningococcal disease preventative measures for Hajj and Umrah should continue to be strictly implemented, reviewed regularly and updated in accordance with changes in the epidemiology of meningococcal disease and availability of new preventative tools including new vaccines.

A periodic disease transmission model with asymptomatic carriage and latency periods.

In this paper, the global dynamics of a periodic disease transmission model with two delays in incubation and asymptomatic carriage periods is investigated. We first derive the model system with a general nonlinear incidence rate function by stage-structure. Then, we identify the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] for the model and present numerical algorithm to calculate it. We obtain the global attractivity of the disease-free state when [Formula: see text] and discuss the disease persistence when [Formula: see text]. We also explore the coexistence of endemic state in the nonautonomous system and prove the uniqueness with constants coefficients. Numerical simulations are provided to present a case study regarding the meningococcal meningitis disease transmission and discuss the influence of carriers on [Formula: see text].

Ciprofloxacin for contacts of cases of meningococcal meningitis as an epidemic response: study protocol for a cluster-randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis are common in the "African meningitis belt." Current response strategies include reactive vaccination campaigns, which are often organized too late to have maximal impact. A novel strain of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C has been circulating in recent years, and vaccine supplies are limited. An evaluation of chemoprophylaxis with single-dose ciprofloxacin for household contacts of meningitis cases has therefore been recommended. METHODS/DESIGN: A three-arm cluster-randomized trial has been designed for implementation during a meningococcal meningitis epidemic in a health district in Niger in which at least two Health Zones (HZs) have met the weekly epidemic threshold. The primary outcome is the incidence (attack rate) of meningitis during the epidemic. Villages will be randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio to one of three different arms: standard care, household-level prophylaxis, or village-wide prophylaxis. After study launch, when a case of meningococcal meningitis is identified in an HZ, the first reported case from a village will trigger the inclusion and randomization of the village. Household-level prophylaxis with single-dose ciprofloxacin will be offered in the home to all household members within 24 hours of the notification of the case, and village-wide distributions will occur within 72 hours of the notification of the case. The sample size necessary to detect differences between each of the two intervention arms and the standard care arm will be set after 4 weeks of data collection, in order to quantify multiple variables that could be particular to a given area. The primary analysis will compare attack rates at the end of the epidemic in each of the three arms. A nested sub-study will assess the effects of ciprofloxacin prophylaxis on the prevalence of ciprofloxacin-resistant enterobacteriaceae. A total of 200 participants in the standard care arm and 200 in the village-wide prophylaxis arm will provide stool samples at days 0, 7, and 28 following their village's inclusion in the study. DISCUSSION: An innovative trial is proposed for implementation during an epidemic that will assess the impact of a novel strategy for meningitis outbreak response. In parallel, we will describe potential negative effects of the intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02724046 . Registered on 15 March 2016. Last updated on 13 June 2017.

Meningococcal serogroup B vaccine: Knowledge and acceptability among parents in Italy.

This study aimed to evaluate the knowledge and attitudes about Meningococcal meningitis B and the relative vaccine for children among a sample of parents in Italy. A cross-sectional investigation was conducted from October to December 2015 among a sample of 910 parents in the geographic area of Naples and Salerno (Italy). In total, 543 of 910 parents returned a completed questionnaire for a response rate of 59.7%. Almost all parents had heard about meningitis (95.8%), 79.8% of these knew the mode of transmission (through respiratory droplets) and 62.5% knew the susceptible population (infants, children and adolescents). Moreover, a large percentage (86%) knew that the vaccine is a preventive measure. Parents who were married, those who had one child, those who did not have information about the MenB vaccine by physicians and those who needed additional information about the MenB vaccine were more likely to know the vaccine as a preventive measure of meningitis. Regarding attitudes toward the MenB vaccine, approximately two thirds of parents considered the vaccine useful (67.2%) and said that they would vaccinate their children (64.1%). Parents who had administered at least one recommended vaccination to their children, those who considered the vaccine useful, those with need for additional information about the vaccine and those who knew that the vaccine was a preventive measure of meningitis were more likely to have a positive attitude to vaccinating their children. Considering the results of our study, it looks appropriate that the knowledge of the population about meningitis and its related vaccinations is improved through correct health education and effective vaccine strategies that are implemented by policy makers.

Household transmission of Neisseria meningitidis in the African meningitis belt: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Information on transmission of meningococcal infection in the African meningitis belt is scarce. We aimed to describe transmission patterns of Neisseria meningitidis (meningococcus) in households in the African meningitis belt. METHODS: Cross-sectional carriage surveys were done in seven African meningitis belt countries (Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal) between Aug 1, 2010, and Oct 15, 2012. Meningococcal carriers identified in these surveys and all available people in their households were recruited into this longitudinal cohort study. We took pharyngeal swabs at first visit and took further swabs twice a month for 2 months and then monthly for a further 4 months. We used conventional bacteriological and molecular techniques to identify and characterise meningococci. We estimated the rates of carriage acquisition and recovery using a multi-state Markov model. FINDINGS: Meningococci were isolated from 241 (25%) of 980 members of 133 households in which a carrier had been identified in the cross-sectional survey or at the first household visit. Carriage was detected subsequently in another household member who was not an index carrier in 75 households. Transmission within a household, suggested by detection of a further carrier with the same strain as the index carrier, was found in 52 of these 75 households. Children younger than 5 years were the group that most frequently acquired carriage from other household members. The overall individual acquisition rate was 2·4% (95% CI 1·6-4·0) per month, varying by age and household carriage status. The mean duration of carriage was 3·4 months (95% CI 2·7-4·4). INTERPRETATION: In the African meningitis belt, transmission of meningococci within households is important, particularly for young children, and periods of carriage are usually of short duration. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust.

Routinely vaccinating adolescents against meningococcus: targeting transmission & disease.

Adolescents have the highest rates of meningococcal carriage and transmission. Interrupting the adolescent habitat in order to reduce carriage and transmission within adolescents and to other age groups could help to control meningococcal disease at a population level. Compared to immunization strategies restricted to young children, a strategy focused on adolescents may have more profound and long-lasting indirect impacts, and may be more cost effective. Despite challenges in reaching this age-group, experience with other vaccines show that high vaccine coverage of adolescents is attainable.

Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of MenAfriVac in campaigns targeting people aged 1-29 years across the African meningitis belt has successfully reduced meningitis incidence and carriage due to Neisseria meningitidis group A (MenA). It is important to consider how best to sustain population protection in the long term. METHODS: We created a mathematical model of MenA transmission and disease to investigate the potential impact of a range of immunization strategies. The model is age structured; includes classes of susceptible, carrier, ill, and immune people (who may be vaccinated or unvaccinated); and incorporates seasonal transmission and a stochastic forcing term that models between year variation in rates of transmission. Model parameters were primarily derived from African sources. The model can describe the typical annual incidence of meningitis in the prevaccine era, with irregular epidemics of varying size. Parameter and structural uncertainty were explored in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Following MenAfriVac introduction at high uptake, the model predicts excellent short-term disease control. With no subsequent immunization, strong resurgences in disease incidence were predicted after approximately 15 years (assuming 10 years' average vaccine protection). Routine immunization at 9 months of age resulted in lower average annual incidence than regular mass campaigns of 1- to 4-year-olds, provided coverage was above approximately 60%. The strategy with the lowest overall average annual incidence and longest time to resurgence was achieved using a combination strategy of introduction into the Expanded Programme on Immunization at 9 months, 5 years after the initial mass campaigns, with a catch-up targeting unvaccinated 1- to 4-year-olds. CONCLUSIONS: These results can be used to inform policy recommendations for long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac.

Recent Outbreaks of Meningococcal Disease among Men Who Have Sex with Men.

Meningococcal disease outbreaks recently have occurred in several U.S. cities among men who are HIV-infected and who have had sex with other men. This article describes the first similar case of meningococcal meningitis serogroup C in Minnesota, which was confirmed this summer. It also offers vaccination guidance for physicians who care for patients who may be at high risk for the disease.

The impact of aggregating serogroups in dynamic models of Neisseria meningitidis transmission.

BACKGROUND: Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a pathogen of multiple serogroups that is highly prevalent in many populations. Serogroups associated with invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Canada, for example, include A, B, C, W-135, X and Y. IMD is a rare but serious outcome of Nm infection, and can be prevented with vaccines that target certain serogroups. This has stimulated the development of dynamic models to evaluate vaccine impact. However, these models typically aggregate the various Nm serogroups into a small number of combined groups, instead of modelling each serogroup individually. The impact of aggregation on dynamic Nm model predictions is poorly understood. Our objective was to explore the impact of aggregation on dynamic model predictions. METHODS: We developed two age-structured agent-based models--a 2-strain model and a 4-strain model--to simulate vaccination programs in the Canadian setting. The 2-strain model was used to explore two different groupings: C, versus all other serogroups combined; and B, versus all other serogroups combined. The 4-strain model used the four groupings: C, B, Neisseria lactamica, versus all other serogroups combined. We compared the predicted impact of monovalent C vaccine, quadrivalent ACWY vaccine (MCV-4), and monovalent B vaccine (4CMenB) on the prevalence of serogroup carriage under these different models. RESULTS: The 2-strain and 4-strain models predicted similar overall impacts of vaccines on carriage prevalence, especially with respect to the vaccine-targeted serogroups. However, there were some significant quantitative and qualitative differences. Declines in vaccine-targeted serogroups were more rapid in the 2-strain model than the 4-strain model, for both the C and the 4CMenB vaccines. Sustained oscillations, and evidence for multiple attractors (i.e., different types of dynamics for the same model parameters but different initial conditions), occurred in the 4-strain model but not the 2-strain model. Strain replacement was also more pronounced in the 4-strain model, on account of the 4-strain model spreading prevalence more thinly across groups and thus enhancing competitive interactions. CONCLUSIONS: Simplifying assumptions like aggregation of serogroups can have significant impacts on dynamic model predictions. Modellers should carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of aggregation when formulating models for multi-strain pathogens.

Surveillance for Neisseria meningitidis Disease Activity and Transmission Using Information Technology.

BACKGROUND: While formal reporting, surveillance, and response structures remain essential to protecting public health, a new generation of freely accessible, online, and real-time informatics tools for disease tracking are expanding the ability to raise earlier public awareness of emerging disease threats. The rationale for this study is to test the hypothesis that the HealthMap informatics tools can complement epidemiological data captured by traditional surveillance monitoring systems for meningitis due to Neisseria meningitides (N. meningitides) by highlighting severe transmissible disease activity and outbreaks in the United States. METHODS: Annual analyses of N. meningitides disease alerts captured by HealthMap were compared to epidemiological data captured by the Centers for Disease Control's Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs) for N. meningitides. Morbidity and mortality case reports were measured annually from 2010 to 2013 (HealthMap) and 2005 to 2012 (ABCs). FINDINGS: HealthMap N. meningitides monitoring captured 80-90% of alerts as diagnosed N. meningitides, 5-20% of alerts as suspected cases, and 5-10% of alerts as related news articles. HealthMap disease alert activity for emerging disease threats related to N. meningitides were in agreement with patterns identified historically using traditional surveillance systems. HealthMap's strength lies in its ability to provide a cumulative "snapshot" of weak signals that allows for rapid dissemination of knowledge and earlier public awareness of potential outbreak status while formal testing and confirmation for specific serotypes is ongoing by public health authorities. CONCLUSIONS: The underreporting of disease cases in internet-based data streaming makes inadequate any comparison to epidemiological trends illustrated by the more comprehensive ABCs network published by the Centers for Disease Control. However, the expected delays in compiling confirmatory reports by traditional surveillance systems (at the time of writing, ABCs data for 2013 is listed as being provisional) emphasize the helpfulness of real-time internet-based data streaming to quickly fill gaps including the visualization of modes of disease transmission in outbreaks for better resource and action planning. HealthMap can also contribute as an internet-based monitoring system to provide real-time channel for patients to report intervention-related failures.

Incidence, carriage and case-carrier ratios for meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: To facilitate the interpretation of meningococcal meningitis epidemiology in the "African meningitis belt", we aimed at obtaining serogroup-specific pooled estimates of incidence, carriage and case-carrier ratios for meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt and describe their variations across the endemic, hyperendemic and epidemic context. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis monthly incidence and carriage in the same population and time period. Epidemiological contexts were defined as endemic (wet season, no epidemic), hyperendemic (dry season, no epidemic), and epidemic (dry season, epidemic). FINDINGS: Eight studies reporting a total of eighty pairs of serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis incidence and carriage estimates were included in this review. For serogroup A, changes associated with the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence and from hyperendemic to epidemic incidence were 15-fold and 120-fold respectively. Changes in carriage prevalence associated with both transitions were 1-fold and 30-fold respectively. For serogroup W and X, the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence involved a 4-fold and 1•1-fold increase respectively. Increases in carriage prevalence for the later transition were 7-fold and 1•7-fold respectively. No data were available for the hyperendemic-epidemic transition for these serogroups. Our findings suggested that the regular seasonal variation in serogroup A meningococcal meningitis incidence between the rainy and the dry season could be mainly driven by seasonal change in the ratio of clinical cases to subclinical infections. In contrast appearance of epidemic incidences is related to a substantial increase in transmission and colonisation and to lesser extent with changes in the case-carrier ratio. CONCLUSION: Seasonal change in the rate of progression to disease given carriage together with variations in frequency of carriage transmission should be considered in models attempting to capture the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis and mainly to predict meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt.

Spread of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W clone, China.

During February 2011-June 2012, invasive infection with Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W was identified in 11 persons in southeastern China. All isolates tested had matching or near-matching pulsed-field gel electrophoresis patterns and belonged to multilocus sequence type 11. The epidemiologic investigation suggested recent transmission of this clonal complex in southeastern China.