Higher education and science popularization: Can they achieve coordinated growth?

This study aims to explore whether higher education and science popularization can achieve coordinated growth with temporal and spatial characteristics. Selecting the provincial regions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China as cases with data from the national statistics administrations (such as China Statistical Yearbook), this study uses entropy weight analysis, TOPSIS, GM(1,1) gray prediction methods and coupling coordination degree model to evaluate the coordinated growth status. The key findings are: (1) the annual budget per student, and the number of science and technology museums affect both systems more obviously; (2) the overall performances of science popularization fluctuate more obviously than those of higher education; (3) the coordinated growth performances of the two systems in most regions remain mild fluctuations and keep relatively stable coordinated status, however, temporal and spatial variation tendencies do exist among regions. Therefore, corresponding countermeasures should be implemented: generally, national authority needs to involve in coordination activities among regions; the regions with satisfactory coordinated growth performances need more creative approaches to maintain the coordinated growth interactions; the regions at the transitioning status need to prevent the grade decline and upgrade the performances; the regions with lagging performances need to stop the decline and reduce the gaps with others. The novelties include analyzing the coordinated growth interaction mechanism between the two, selecting indices to assess the abstract interaction mechanism precisely, proposing suggestions based on temporal and spatial comparisons of the coordinated growth performances, etc.

Fare well to Nova Scotia? Public health investments remain chronically underfunded.

Inspired by Fiset-Laniel et al.'s (2020) article entitled "Public health investments: neglect or wilful omission? Historical trends in Quebec and implications for Canada", we assessed public health investments since the establishment of the Nova Scotia provincial health authority in 2015. We analyzed Nova Scotia Department of Health and Wellness budgets from 2015-2016 to 2019-2020 and observed that less than 1% of funding was budgeted for public health annually, an amount well below the recommendation that 5-6% of healthcare funding be spent on public health. Healthcare spending has increased annually since 2015-2016, but proportions of funding to different programs and services have remained static. Specifically, we did not observe a change in investment in public health over time, suggesting that while the government does not necessarily spend too much or too little on healthcare, it spends far too little on public health. This chronic under-funding is problematic given the high rates of non-communicable diseases in Nova Scotia and health inequities experienced within the population. The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of public health work, and the need for a pandemic recovery plan that prioritizes investment in all areas of public health in Nova Scotia.

RéSUMé: Inspirés par l'article de Fiset-Laniel et coll. (2020) intitulé « Public health investments: neglect or wilful omission? Historical trends in Quebec and implications for Canada ¼, nous avons évalué les investissements en santé publique depuis la fondation de l'autorité sanitaire provinciale de la Nouvelle-Écosse en 2015. Nous avons analysé les budgets du ministère de la Santé et du Mieux-Être de la Nouvelle-Écosse de 2015−2016 à 2019−2020 et nous avons observé que moins de 1 % du financement était prévu pour la santé publique annuellement, un montant bien inférieur à la recommandation que 5−6 % du financement pour les soins de santé soit dépensé sur la santé publique. Les dépenses de santé ont augmenté annuellement depuis 2015−2016, mais les proportions du financement consacrés à différents programmes et services ont demeuré statiques. Spécifiquement, nous n'avons pas observé de changement dans l'investissement en santé publique au fil du temps, indiquant que tandis que le gouvernement ne dépense pas nécessairement trop ou trop peu sur les soins de santé, il dépense bien trop peu sur la santé publique. Ce sous-financement chronique est problématique étant donné les hauts taux de maladies non transmissibles en Nouvelle-Écosse et les inégalités en matière de santé qui existent au sein de la population. La pandémie de la COVID-19 de 2020 a souligné l'importance du travail lié à la santé publique, ainsi que la nécessité d'un plan de rétablissement suite à une pandémie qui priorise l'investissement dans tous les domaines de santé publique en Nouvelle-Écosse.

Stroke Research Disparity in Southeast Asia: Socioeconomic Factors, Healthcare Delivery, and Stroke Disease Burden.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrovascular disease is the second leading cause of death worldwide and provides a heavy burden of disease in Southeast Asia (SEA). Contribution to the collective knowledge of this disease is necessary to address practice and treatment disparities. There is limited data on research productivity in the region. This study aimed to determine research productivity on stroke and other cerebral and spinal vascular diseases among the SEA countries and determine its relationship with bibliometrics, socioeconomic parameters, healthcare delivery indices, and burden of disease. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted using five major healthcare databases. We included studies published until June 2020 on cerebral and spinal vascular disease with at least one author from SEA. Country-specific socioeconomic parameters, the burden of disease, healthcare delivery indices, and the number of neurologists were collected from international databases and published data. Correlational analysis was done on bibliometric indices and collected data. RESULTS: A total of 2577 articles were included. Singapore had the most publications (n=1095, 42.5%) and citations (PlumX n=16,592, 55.2%; Scopus n=22,351, 56.7%). Gross domestic product per capita, percent gross domestic product for research and development, universal health care effective coverage index overall and for stroke treatment, and the number of neurologists had a positive correlation to bibliometric indices. CONCLUSIONS: There is a disparity in stroke research productivity among high-income and low-income countries in SEA. Priority must be given to scientific research output and its role in socioeconomic development and policy formulation.

Addressing budget reduction and reallocation on health-related resources during COVID-19 pandemic in malaria-endemic countries.

The global COVID-19 pandemic has been affecting the maintenance of various disease control programmes, including malaria. In some malaria-endemic countries, funding and personnel reallocations were executed from malaria control programmes to support COVID-19 response efforts, resulting mainly in interruptions of disease control activities and reduced capabilities of health system. While it is principal to drive national budget rearrangements during the pandemic, the long-standing malaria control programmes should not be left behind in order to sustain the achievements from the previous years. With different levels of intensity, many countries have been struggling to improve the health system resilience and to mitigate the unavoidable stagnation of malaria control programmes. Current opinion emphasized the impacts of budget reprioritization on malaria-related resources during COVID-19 pandemic in malaria endemic countries in Africa and Southeast Asia, and feasible attempts that can be taken to lessen these impacts.

Treatment With Liposomal Amphotericin B for All Confirmed Cases of Human Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: A Budget Impact Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the budget impact of the expansion of liposomal amphotericin B use for all confirmed cases of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Brazil. Currently, the first-line medicine for VL treatment is meglumine antimoniate. Liposomal amphotericin B is indicated only for patients with a greater risk of severity by the disease. METHODS: The analysis was performed from the perspective of the Brazilian public healthcare system over 3 years, considering the following 2 scenarios: the reference scenario with the current recommendations for VL treatment and the alternative scenario based on the use of liposomal amphotericin B for all patients. A diffusion rate of 60% was used in the first year, 80% in the second year, and 100% in the third year. The epidemiological parameters used in the analysis came from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and from a clinical trial that evaluated the efficacy and safety of medicines for the treatment of VL in the country. The costs were related to the treatment of VL and to hospital and outpatient care. RESULTS: In the reference scenario, the total cost for treatment of the 3453 VL confirmed cases in 2014 was $1 447 611.75. The incremental budget impact with the use of liposomal amphotericin B for all the VL confirmed cases was $299 646.43 in the third year. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis presented will support the decision process for the use and expansion of liposomal amphotericin B for all VL confirmed cases in Brazil.

Estimating Downstream Budget Impacts in Implementation Research.

Health care decision makers often request information showing how a new treatment or intervention will affect their budget (i.e., a budget impact analysis; BIA). In this article, we present key topics for considering how to measure downstream health care costs, a key component of the BIA, when implementing an evidence-based program designed to reduce a quality gap. Tracking health care utilization can be done with administrative or self-reported data, but estimating costs for these utilization data raises 2 issues that are often overlooked in implementation science. The first issue has to do with applicability: are the cost estimates applicable to the health care system that is implementing the quality improvement program? We often use national cost estimates or average payments, without considering whether these cost estimates are appropriate. Second, we need to determine the decision maker's time horizon to identify the costs that vary in that time horizon. If the BIA takes a short-term time horizon, then we should focus on costs that vary in the short run and exclude costs that are fixed over this time. BIA is an increasingly popular tool for health care decision makers interested in understanding the financial effect of implementing an evidence-based program. Without careful consideration of some key conceptual issues, we run the risk of misleading decision makers when presenting results from implementation studies.

Public health investments: neglect or wilful omission? Historical trends in Quebec and implications for Canada.

This commentary explores public health (PH) investments in Quebec and underlines the challenge of tracking PH resources across Canada. We analyzed governmental data to compare investments across all health and social programs in Quebec from 2004-2005 to 2017-2018. The province's PH budgets suffered from disproportionately low investments and abrupt cuts. These cuts were the largest among all health programs in 2015-2016 (- 7.1%). PH budgets did not keep up with inflation and, in constant dollars, have declined over the last decade. Furthermore, their evolution over the span of 14 years significantly differed from other health programs. On average, programs providing direct services experienced overall budget increases of 81%, whereas PH budgets had the lowest increase of all such programs at only 46%. PH suffers from serious erosion of its capacity. Unfortunately, there is a dire lack of comparable data for provincial, national, and international PH budgets, which further complicates the monitoring of PH erosion. We contend that systematic tracking of PH budgets remains profoundly inadequate across Canada. We recommend (1) regular, comprehensive, and publicly reported analyses of PH budgets; (2) in-depth comparisons of PH investments across Canadian jurisdictions; and (3) a strong PH systems and services research agenda for Canada.

Ten-year Medicare budget impact of increased coverage for anti-obesity intervention.

Aims: To estimate the long-term budget impact of expanding Medicare coverage of anti-obesity interventions among adults aged 65 and older in the US. Materials and methods: This study analyzed a representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries from the combined 2008-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Population characteristics, cost and effectiveness of anti-obesity interventions, and the sustainability of weight loss in real-life were modeled to project the budgetary impact on gross Medicare outlay over 10 years. Hypothetical scenarios of 50% and 67% increases in intervention participation above base case were used to model moderate and extensive Medicare coverage expansion of intensive behavior therapy and pharmacotherapy. Results: For each Medicare beneficiary receiving anti-obesity treatment, we estimate Medicare savings of $6,842 and $7,155 over 10 years under moderate and extensive coverage utilization assumptions, respectively. The average cost of intervention is $1,798 and $1,886 per treated participant. Taking the entire Medicare population (treated and untreated) into consideration, the estimated 10-year budget savings per beneficiary are $308 and $339 under moderate and extensive assumptions, respectively. Sensitivity analysis of drug adherence rate and weight-loss efficacy indicated a potential variation of budget savings within 7% and 22% of the base case, respectively. Most of the projected cost savings come from lower utilization of ambulatory services and prescription drugs. Limitations: Due to the scarcity of studies on the efficacy of pharmacotherapy among older adults with obesity, the simulated weight loss and long-term maintenance effects were derived from clinical trial outcomes, in which older adults were mostly excluded from participation. The model did not include potential side-effects from anti-obesity medications and associated costs. Conclusions: This analysis suggests that expanding coverage of anti-obesity interventions to eligible individuals could generate $20-$23 billion budgetary savings to Medicare over 10 years.

Effects of changes to the taxation of beer on alcohol consumption and government revenue in Australia.

BACKGROUND: In 1988, the Australian government introduced a single nominal rate of tax on all beer products calculated on alcohol content. However, in 2000/01, varying nominal rates of tax were introduced for beer products according to three alcohol content levels (low-/mid-/high-strength) and container type (on-/off-premises). Little is known about the effect of the different tax policies on alcohol consumption and government revenue. METHODS: We undertake time series analysis over 1989-2016 to examine the effect of beer tax policies in two sub-periods (before/after 2000/01) on category-level beer consumption per capita and government revenue. We also test if the policy changes in 2000/01 had immediate or long-term effects on total (all beer category) consumption over 1989-2016. Data includes monthly domestic beer sales volumes by category (in litres of alcohol), monthly government revenue from beer tax (AUD$), and inflation-adjusted tax rates (AUD$ per litre of alcohol). RESULTS: Before 2000/01, the single nominal tax rate had a significant positive effect on revenue, but no significant effect on consumption. After 2000/01, the relatively higher nominal tax rates for two beer categories (mid- and high-strength off-premises) had a significant negative effect on their consumption, and a significant negative effect on revenue in one category (mid-strength off-premises). However, across the full period examined (1989-2016), the level and slope of total beer consumption was not significantly affected by the tax policy changes in 2000/01. CONCLUSION: Raising alcohol taxes has the potential to reduce consumption and increase government revenue, but has been underutilised for these public health and public finance objectives in Australia.

Challenges with Forecasting Budget Impact: A Case Study of Six ICER Reports.

BACKGROUND: Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact. OBJECTIVE: We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data. METHODS: From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed "unmanaged uptake," and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market). RESULTS: Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The "unmanaged uptake" assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results.

The effectiveness of PEPFAR's funding for women and children with HIV/AIDS.

Has President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief's (PEPFAR) funding been effective in reducing the rate of HIV new infections and AIDS-related deaths among women and children? While previous studies have found HIV/AIDS aid to be ineffective and PEPFAR funding to produce negative externalities, there is lack of empirical examination of the impact of PEPFAR on women and children despite the emphasis on prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV during the Bush and Obama administrations. Using descriptive analysis and difference-in-differences (DID) regression, this study finds that PEPFAR's funding has reduced the HIV new infections and AIDS-related death rates of women and children for both focus countries and recipient countries, which are those that were added in a second phase. These findings show that PEPFAR's strategy for women and children has been effective and that it should be continued. However, while PEPFAR has contributed to the fight against HIV/AIDS, the effects of its work have been underestimated.

Federal Funding for Health Security in FY2019.

This article is the latest in an annual series analyzing federal funding for health security programs. We examine proposed funding in the President's Budget Request for FY2019, provide updated amounts for FY2018, and update actual funding amounts for FY2010 through FY2017. Building health security for the nation is the responsibility of multiple agencies in the US federal government, as well as that of state, tribal, territorial, and local governments and the private sector. This series of articles focuses on the federal government's role in health security by identifying health security-related programs in public health, health care, national security, and defense and reporting funding levels for that ongoing work.

Replacement Effects and Budget Impacts of Insurance Coverage for Sodium-Glucose Co-Transporter-2 Inhibitors on Oral Antidiabetic Drug Utilization.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A new oral antidiabetic drug class, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2 inhibitors), has been covered by national health insurance in Taiwan since May 2016. This study estimated the impacts of insurance coverage for SGLT-2 inhibitors on the replacement effects of antidiabetic drug use and the overall budget for antidiabetic drugs in Taiwan. METHODS: Antidiabetic drugs were divided into nine categories based on the American Diabetes Association guidelines. We retrieved claims data from 2015 to 2017 for all patients diagnosed with diabetes mellitus from the National Health Insurance Research Database. An interrupted time series design and segmented regression were used to estimate the budget impact of insurance coverage for SGLT-2 inhibitors. Three scenarios were designed for the prescribing pattern for SGLT-2 inhibitors: (1) monotherapy, (2) metformin-based (m-based) drug prescriptions, and (3) metformin and sulfonylurea-based (m-s-based) drug prescriptions. RESULTS: From May 2016 to April 2017, the prescription rate for m-based SGLT-2 inhibitors increased from 0.43 to 3.50%, and the expenditure rate increased from 0.82 to 6.58%. We found that the prescription rates of m-based and m-s-based dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4 inhibitors) decreased by 6.23 and 11.51% following the initiation of insurance coverage for SGLT-2 inhibitors, respectively. Furthermore, there was a 5.95% increase in the overall budget impact of antidiabetic drugs 1 year following the initiation of insurance coverage for SGLT-2 inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: Both the prescription rates and expenditure rates for SGLT-2 inhibitors have increased since they have been covered by national health insurance in Taiwan, which significantly reduced usage of DPP-4 inhibitors but caused the positive growth of overall antidiabetic drug expenditures.

Resolving the "Cost-Effective but Unaffordable" Paradox: Estimating the Health Opportunity Costs of Nonmarginal Budget Impacts.

Considering whether or not a proposed investment (an intervention, technology, or program of care) is affordable is really asking whether the benefits it offers are greater than its opportunity cost. To say that an investment is cost-effective but not affordable must mean that the (implicit or explicit) "threshold" used to judge cost-effectiveness does not reflect the scale and value of the opportunity costs. Existing empirical estimates of health opportunity costs are based on cross-sectional variation in expenditure and mortality outcomes by program budget categories (PBCs) and do not reflect the likely effect of nonmarginal budget impacts on health opportunity costs. The UK Department of Health regularly updates the needs-based target allocation of resources to local areas of the National Health Service (NHS), creating two subgroups of local areas (those under target allocation and those over). These data provide the opportunity to explore how the effects of changes in health care expenditure differ with available resources. We use 2008-2009 data to evaluate two econometric approaches to estimation and explore a range of criteria for accepting subgroup specific effects for differences in expenditure and outcome elasticities across the 23 PBCs. Our results indicate that health opportunity costs arising from an investment imposing net increases in expenditure are underestimated unless account is taken of likely nonmarginal effects. They also indicate the benefits (reduced health opportunity costs or increased value-based price of a technology) of being able to "smooth" these nonmarginal budget impacts by health care systems borrowing against future budgets or from manufacturers offering "mortgage" type arrangements.