Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019-2029.

The polio endgame remains complicated, with many questions about future polio vaccines and national immunization policies. We simulated possible future poliovirus vaccine routine immunization policies for countries stratified by World Bank Income Levels and estimated the expected costs and cases using an updated integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission, stochastic risk, and economic model. We consider two reference cases scenarios: one that achieves the eradication of all wild polioviruses (WPVs) by 2023 and one in which serotype 1 WPV (WPV1) transmission continues. The results show that the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunization in all countries substantially increased the expected costs of the polio endgame, without substantially increasing its expected health or economic benefits. Adding a second dose of IPV to the routine immunization schedules of countries that currently include a single IPV dose further increases costs and does not appear economically justified in the reference case that does not stop WPV transmission. For the reference case that includes all WPV eradication, adding a second IPV dose at the time of successful oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation represents a cost-effective option. The risks and costs of needing to restart OPV use change the economics of the polio endgame, although the time horizon used for modeling impacts the overall economic results. National health leaders will want to consider the expected health and economic net benefits of their national polio vaccine strategies recognizing that preferred strategies may differ.

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost-effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988-2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.

A Health Economic Analysis for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine to Prevent COVID-19 in the United States.

COVID-19 led to a recent high-profile proposal to reintroduce oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in the United States (U.S.), initially in clinical trials, but potentially for widespread and repeated use. We explore logistical challenges related to U.S. OPV administration in 2020, review the literature related to nonspecific effects of OPV to induce innate immunity, and model the health and economic implications of the proposal. The costs of reintroducing a single OPV dose to 331 million Americans would exceed $4.4 billion. Giving a dose of bivalent OPV to the entire U.S. population would lead to an expected 40 identifiable cases of vaccine-associated paralytic polio, with young Americans at the highest risk. Reintroducing any OPV use in the U.S. poses a risk of restarting transmission of OPV-related viruses and could lead to new infections in immunocompromised individuals with B-cell related primary immunodeficiencies that could lead to later cases of paralysis. Due to the lack of a currently licensed OPV in the U.S., the decision to administer OPV to Americans for nonspecific immunological effects would require purchasing limited global OPV supplies that could impact polio eradication efforts. Health economic modeling suggests no role for reintroducing OPV into the U.S. with respect to responding to COVID-19. Countries that currently use OPV experience fundamentally different risks, costs, and benefits than the U.S. Successful global polio eradication will depend on sufficient OPV supplies, achieving and maintaining high OPV coverage in OPV-using countries, and effective global OPV cessation and containment in all countries, including the U.S.

Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication.

INTRODUCTION: Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame. AREAS COVERED: This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations. EXPERT OPINION: Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.

Polio in Afghanistan: The Current Situation amid COVID-19.

Polio is a deadly viral disease that has been paralyzing many children in Afghanistan. Despite fundamental efforts, primarily vaccination, to reduce the number of cases in Afghanistan, there are still many children who are deprived of the vaccine every year. Afghanistan is one of the two remaining countries endemic for polio, and the country has undergone various challenges that have hampered the eradication of this disease. The underlying challenges include inaccessibility of unsecured areas, illiteracy, refusal, and, most recently, COVID-19. The country is in the midst of a battle against COVID-19, and polio has almost entirely been neglected. Sadly, polio cases are increasing in the country, particularly in polio-free provinces. After an initial lockdown, many businesses have been allowed to resume, but the mass polio vaccination campaign has not restarted. New cases of polio will surge if endemic regions remain unvaccinated or inaccessible. To curb the further spread of polio, Afghanistan needs to resume nationwide house-to-house vaccination as restrictions due to COVID-19 are loosened.

The long-term economic effects of polio: Evidence from the introduction of the polio vaccine to Sweden in 1957.

This study explores the impact an exogenous improvement in childhood health has on later-life outcomes. Using extensive and detailed register data from the Swedish Interdisciplinary Panel covering up to 2011, we follow individuals exposed to the introduction of the first vaccine against polio in Sweden (birth cohorts 1937-1966) until adulthood in order to quantify the causal effect of polio vaccination on long-term economic outcomes. The results show that, contrary to what has been found in the literature for other health-related interventions, including other vaccines, exposure to the vaccine against polio did not seem to have any long-term effects on the studied adult economic outcomes. Upon closer inspection of how the disease affects children, this might be explained by the fact that no scarring effects from exposure to high incidence of polio were found on adult income, educational achievement, or hospitalizations, which seems to suggest that those who contracted the illness but suffered only the milder symptoms of the disease made a full recovery and had no lifelong sequels as a consequence of the condition. The absence of scarring effects is hypothesized to be related to the pathology and epidemiology of the disease itself, which infects many, but scars only those who suffer the most recognizable paralytic symptoms.

Characterising the costs of the Global Polio Laboratory Network: a survey-based analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the costs, including for environmental surveillance (ES), of the Global Polio Laboratory Network (GPLN) that provides laboratory support to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a survey of the network across 92 countries of the 146 GPLN laboratories plus three non-GPLN laboratories that concentrate environmental samples to collect information about their activities, characteristics and costs during 2016. We estimate the total costs using regression of reported responses and complementing the findings with GPEI data. RESULTS: We received responses from 132 (89%) of the 149 laboratories, with variable response rates for individual questions. We estimate that processing samples of patients with acute flaccid paralysis leads to total costs of approximately $28 million per year (2016 US$) based on extrapolation from reported costs of $16 million, of which 61% were supported by internal (national) funds. Fifty-nine (45%) of the 132 responding laboratories reported supporting ES and we estimate an additional $5.3 million of recurring costs for ES activities performed by the laboratories. The reported costs do not include an estimated additional $10 million of annual global and regional costs to coordinate and support the GPLN. On average, the staff supported by funding for polio in the responding laboratories spent 30% of their time on non-polio activities. We estimate total costs for laboratory support of approximately $43 million (note that this estimate does not include any field or other non-laboratory costs of polio surveillance). CONCLUSIONS: Although countries contribute significantly to the GPLN financing, many laboratories currently depend on GPEI funds, and these laboratories also support the laboratory component of surveillance activities for other diseases. Sustaining critical global surveillance for polioviruses and transitioning support for other disease programmes will require continued significant funding after polio certification.

Estimation of the Direct Cost of Poliomyelitis Rehabilitation Treatment to Pakistani Patients: A 53-Year Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is one of the last few countries in which poliomyelitis is endemic. Evidence indicates that out-of-pocket expenditures are a barrier to polio rehabilitation treatment, yet there are no reported figures related to the financial burden of this disease on patients in a recently polio-endemic country. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated direct costs attributed to rehabilitation treatment of poliomyelitis among Pakistani patients and reported its duration along with the socioeconomic status of poliomyelitis survivors. CONCLUSION: The cost of poliomyelitis rehabilitation in Pakistan is high; it has an economic effect on the lives of patients and their families. Despite good education, polio survivors in Pakistan appear to have low socioeconomic status, lower chances of employment and marriage, as well as fewer children. Further research is recommended to explore the burden of disease on society, i.e., indirect costs and suffering.

Evaluating scenarios of locations and capacities for vaccine storage in Nigeria.

Many developing countries still face the prevalence of preventable childhood diseases because their vaccine supply chain systems are inadequate by design or structure to meet the needs of their populations. Currently, Nigeria is evaluating options in the redesign of the country's vaccine supply chain. Using Nigeria as a case study, the objective is to evaluate different regional supply chain scenarios to identify the cost minimizing optimal hub locations and storage capacities for doses of different vaccines to achieve a 100% fill rate. First, we employ a shortest-path optimization routine to determine hub locations. Second, we develop a total cost minimizing routine based on stochastic optimization to determine the optimal capacities at the hubs. This model uses vaccine supply data between 2011 and 2014 provided by Nigeria's National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) on Tuberculosis, Polio, Yellow Fever, Tetanus Toxoid, and Hepatitis B. We find that a two-regional system with no central hub (NC2) cut costs by 23% to achieve a 100% fill rate when compared to optimizing the existing chain of six regions with a central hub (EC6). While the government's leading redesign alternative - no central three-hub system (Gov NC3) - reduces costs by 21% compared with the current EC6, it is more expensive than our NC2 system by 3%. In terms of capacity increases, optimizing the current system requires 42% more capacity than our NC2 system. Although the proposed Gov NC3 system requires the least increase in storage capacity, it requires the most distance to achieve a 100% coverage and about 15% more than our NC2. Overall, we find that improving the current system with a central hub and all its variants, even with optimal regional hub locations, require more storage capacities and are costlier than systems without a central hub. While this analysis prescribes the no central hub with two regions (NC2) as the least cost scenario, it is imperative to note that other configurations have benefits and comparative tradeoffs. Our approach and results offer some guidance for future vaccine supply chain redesigns in countries with similar layouts to Nigeria's.

Exceptional Financial Support for Introduction of Inactivated Polio Vaccine in Middle-Income Countries.

In May 2012, the World Health Assembly declared the completion of poliovirus eradication a programmatic emergency for global public health and called for a comprehensive polio endgame strategy. The Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 was developed in response to this call and demands that all countries using Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) only introduce at least 1 dose of Inactivated Polio Vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization schedules by the end of 2015. In November 2013, the Board of Gavi (the Vaccine Alliance) approved the provision of support for IPV introduction in the 72 Gavi-eligible countries. Following analytical work and stakeholder consultations, the IPV Immunization Systems Management Group (IMG) presented a proposal to provide exceptional financial support for IPV introduction to additional OPV-only using countries not eligible for Gavi support and that would otherwise not be able to mobilize the necessary financial resources within the Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan timelines. In June 2014, the Polio Oversight Board (POB) agreed to make available a maximum envelope of US $45 million toward supporting countries not eligible for Gavi funding. This article describes the design of the funding mechanism that was developed, its implementation and the lessons learned through this process.

Financial Support to Eligible Countries for the Switch From Trivalent to Bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine-Lessons Learned.

The global switch from trivalent oral polio vaccine (tOPV) to bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV) ("the switch") presented an unprecedented challenge to countries. In order to mitigate the risks associated with country-level delays in implementing the switch, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative provided catalytic financial support to specific countries for operational costs unique to the switch. Between November 2015 and February 2016, a total of approximately US$19.4 million in financial support was provided to 67 countries. On average, country budgets allocated 20% to human resources, 23% to trainings and meetings, 8% to communications and advocacy, 9% to logistics, 15% to monitoring, and 5% to waste management. All 67 funded countries successfully switched from tOPV to bOPV during April-May 2016. This funding provided target countries with the necessary catalytic support to facilitate the execution of the switch on an accelerated timeline, and the mechanism offers a model for similar support to future global health efforts, such as the eventual global withdrawal of bOPV.

The Public Health Legacy of Polio Eradication in Africa.

The legacy of polio in Africa goes far beyond the tragedies of millions of children with permanent paralysis. It has a positive side, which includes the many well-trained polio staff who have vaccinated children, conducted surveillance, tested stool specimens in the laboratories, engaged with communities, and taken care of polio patients. This legacy also includes support for routine immunization services and vaccine introductions and campaigns for other diseases. As polio funding declines, it is time to take stock of the resources made available with polio funding in Africa and begin to find ways to keep some of the talented staff, infrastructure, and systems in place to work on new public health challenges. The partnerships that helped support polio eradication will need to consider funding to maintain and to strengthen routine immunization services and other maternal, neonatal, and child health programs in Africa that have benefitted from the polio eradication infrastructure.

Insights from a Systematic Search for Information on Designs, Costs, and Effectiveness of Poliovirus Environmental Surveillance Systems.

Poliovirus surveillance plays a critical role in achieving and certifying eradication and will play a key role in the polio endgame. Environmental surveillance can provide an opportunity to detect circulating polioviruses prior to the observation of any acute flaccid paralysis cases. We completed a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications on environmental surveillance for polio including the search terms "environmental surveillance" or "sewage," and "polio," "poliovirus," or "poliomyelitis," and compared characteristics of the resulting studies. The review included 146 studies representing 101 environmental surveillance activities from 48 countries published between 1975 and 2016. Studies reported taking samples from sewage treatment facilities, surface waters, and various other environmental sources, although they generally did not present sufficient details to thoroughly evaluate the sewage systems and catchment areas. When reported, catchment areas varied from 50 to over 7.3 million people (median of 500,000 for the 25% of activities that reported catchment areas, notably with 60% of the studies not reporting this information and 16% reporting insufficient information to estimate the catchment area population size). While numerous studies reported the ability of environmental surveillance to detect polioviruses in the absence of clinical cases, the review revealed very limited information about the costs and limited information to support quantitative population effectiveness of conducting environmental surveillance. This review motivates future studies to better characterize poliovirus environmental surveillance systems and the potential value of information that they may provide in the polio endgame.

The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management.

AIM: To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response. METHODS: INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management. RESULTS: Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations. CONCLUSION: New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.

The Estimated Health and Economic Benefits of Three Decades of Polio Elimination Efforts in India.

OBJECTIVE: In March 2014, India, the country with historically the highest burden of polio, was declared polio free, with no reported cases since January 2011. We estimate the health and economic benefits of polio elimination in India with the oral polio vaccine (OPV) during 1982-2012. METHODS: Based on a pre-vaccine incidence rate, we estimate the counterfactual burden of polio in the hypothetical absence of the national polio elimination program in India. We attribute differences in outcomes between the actual (adjusted for under-reporting) and hypothetical counterfactual scenarios in our model to the national polio program. We measure health benefits as averted polio incidence, deaths, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). We consider two methods to measure economic benefits: the value of statistical life approach, and equating one DALY to the Gross National Income (GNI) per capita. RESULTS: We estimate that the National Program against Polio averted 3.94 million (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.89-3.99 million) paralytic polio cases, 393,918 polio deaths (95% CI: 388,897- 398,939), and 1.48 billion DALYs (95% CI: 1.46-1.50 billion). We also estimate that the program contributed to a $1.71 trillion (INR 76.91 trillion) gain (95% CI: $1.69-$1.73 trillion [INR 75.93-77.89 trillion]) in economic productivity between 1982 and 2012 in our base case analysis. Using the GNI and DALY method, the economic gain from the program is estimated to be $1.11 trillion (INR 50.13 trillion) (95% CI: $1.10-$1.13 trillion [INR 49.50-50.76 trillion]) over the same period. CONCLUSION: India accrued large health and economic benefits from investing in polio elimination efforts. Other programs to control/eliminate more vaccine-preventable diseases are likely to contribute to large health and economic benefits in India.

Long-term socio-economic consequences and health care costs of poliomyelitis: a historical cohort study involving 3606 polio patients.

Worldwide 10-20 million individuals are living with disabilities after acute poliomyelitis. However, very little is known about the socio-economic consequences and health care costs of poliomyelitis. We carried out a historical register-based study including 3606 individuals hospitalised for poliomyelitis in Copenhagen, Denmark 1940-1954, and 13,795 age and gender-matched Danes. Participants were followed from 1980 until 2012, and family, socio-economic conditions and health care costs were evaluated in different age groups using chi-squared tests, boot-strapped t tests or hazard ratios (HR) calculated in Cox-regression models. The analyses were performed separately for paralytic and non-paralytic polio survivors and their controls, respectively. Compared with controls a higher percentage of paralytic polio survivors remained childless, whereas no difference was observed for non-paralytic polio survivors. The educational level among paralytic as well as non-paralytic polio survivors was higher than that among their controls, employment rate at the ages of 40, 50 and 60 years was slightly lower, whereas total income in the age intervals of 31-40, 41-50 and 51-60 years were similar to controls. Paralytic and non-paralytic polio survivors had a 2.5 [HR = 2.52 (95 % confidence interval (CI); 2.29-2.77)] and 1.4 [HR = 1.35 (95 % CI; 1.23-1.49)]-fold higher risk, respectively, of receiving disability pension compared with controls. Personal health care costs were considerably higher in all age groups in both groups of polio survivors. Individuals with a history of poliomyelitis are well educated, have a slightly lower employment rate, an income similar to controls, but a considerably higher cost in the health care system.

The case for periodic OPV routine vaccination campaigns.

The possibility of periodic routine vaccination campaigns (PRVCs) is introduced in the context of a search for optimal oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) administration strategies. Like the usual continuous routine vaccination campaign (CRVC), PRVCs target only newborns. However, they are not necessarily implemented continuously in time. Using a dynamic and compartmental polio transmission model in a stochastic context, it is shown that some PRVCs can achieve much greater efficiency than CRVC in terms of probability of wild poliovirus (WPV) eradication, even though they never outperform CRVC in terms of total number of paralytic infections. Moreover, these PRVCs results can be obtained at a lower price than CRVC. It is also shown that, even though PRVCs do not perform better than pulse vaccination campaigns (PVCs) when only epidemiological outputs are valued, they can do so when a cost-benefit analysis is preferred.

An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013-2052.

BACKGROUND: The Global Polio Eradication Initiative plans for coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) after interrupting all wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, but many questions remain related to long-term poliovirus risk management policies. METHODS: We used an integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to simulate possible futures and estimate the health and economic outcomes of maintaining the 2013 status quo of continued OPV use in most developing countries compared with OPV cessation policies with various assumptions about global inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) adoption. RESULTS: Continued OPV use after global WPV eradication leads to continued high costs and/or high cases. Global OPV cessation comes with a high probability of at least one outbreak, which aggressive outbreak response can successfully control in most instances. A low but non-zero probability exists of uncontrolled outbreaks following a poliovirus reintroduction long after OPV cessation in a population in which IPV-alone cannot prevent poliovirus transmission. We estimate global incremental net benefits during 2013-2052 of approximately $16 billion (US$2013) for OPV cessation with at least one IPV routine immunization dose in all countries until 2024 compared to continued OPV use, although significant uncertainty remains associated with the frequency of exportations between populations and the implementation of long term risk management policies. CONCLUSIONS: Global OPV cessation offers the possibility of large future health and economic benefits compared to continued OPV use. Long-term poliovirus risk management interventions matter (e.g., IPV use duration, outbreak response, containment, continued surveillance, stockpile size and contents, vaccine production site requirements, potential antiviral drugs, and potential safer vaccines) and require careful consideration. Risk management activities can help to ensure a low risk of uncontrolled outbreaks and preserve or further increase the positive net benefits of OPV cessation. Important uncertainties will require more research, including characterizing immunodeficient long-term poliovirus excretor risks, containment risks, and the kinetics of outbreaks and response in an unprecedented world without widespread live poliovirus exposure.

Basil O'Connor, the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis and the Reorganization of Polio Research in the United States, 1935-41.

The costs associated with polio research in the late 1920s were high, while sources for research funding remained scarce. This began to change in the early 1930s with the creation of three private philanthropies that would form the basis of a system to fund polio research adequately: the International Committee for the Study of Infantile Paralysis (1928), The President's Birthday Ball Commission (1934), and the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis (1938). This article explores how these three organizations shaped the process for directing funds to polio research. Beginning with the International Committee, all three philanthropies used medical advisory committees as vehicles for the review of proposals for research. The National Foundation adopted many of the policies and procedures of the earlier organizations, drawing on the experiences, misfortunes, and successes of its predecessors. The National Foundation also relied on some of the same personnel, although the microbiologist and writer Paul de Kruif, who was an influential figure in the early years, was gradually pushed out. This essay explores the establishment of the medical advisory committees of the National Foundation and reveals how by 1941 under leadership of Basil O'Connor and Dr. Thomas Rivers they developed a systematic and readily legitimated process for directing funding. By 1941, the NFIP had in place the fund-raising capacity to underwrite the scientific research that would ultimately produce two successful polio vaccines in the next twenty years.