Criminal profiling as expert witness evidence: The implications of the profiler validity research.

The use and development of the investigative tool colloquially known as criminal profiling has steadily increased over the past five decades throughout the world. Coupled with this growth has been a diversification in the suggested range of applications for this technique. Possibly the most notable of these has been the attempted transition of the technique from a tool intended to assist police investigations into a form of expert witness evidence admissible in legal proceedings. Whilst case law in various jurisdictions has considered with mutual disinclination the evidentiary admissibility of criminal profiling, a disjunction has evolved between these judicial examinations and the scientifically vetted research testing the accuracy (i.e., validity) of the technique. This article offers an analysis of the research directly testing the validity of the criminal profiling technique and the extant legal principles considering its evidentiary admissibility. This analysis reveals that research findings concerning the validity of criminal profiling are surprisingly compatible with the extant legal principles. The overall conclusion is that a discrete form of crime behavioural analysis is supported by the profiler validity research and could be regarded as potentially admissible expert witness evidence. Finally, a number of theoretical connections are also identified concerning the skills and qualifications of individuals who may feasibly provide such expert testimony.

The sex offender treatment intervention and progress scale (SOTIPS): psychometric properties and incremental predictive validity with static-99R.

The Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS) is a 16-item rating scale designed to assess dynamic risk among adult male sex offenders and degree of change at 6-month intervals during treatment. The purpose of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the SOTIPS in a construction sample of 759 adult male sex offenders who were under correctional supervision and enrolled in cognitive-behavioral community treatment in Vermont between 2001 and 2007. The scale showed acceptable interrater reliability. SOTIPS scores at 1, 7, and 13 months after participants began treatment predicted sexual, violent, and any recidivism, and return to prison at fixed 1- and 3-year follow-up periods (AUCs = .60 to .85). Combined SOTIPS and Static-99R scores predicted all recidivism types (AUCs = .67 to .89) and outperformed either instrument alone when both instruments had similar predictive power. Participants who demonstrated treatment progress, as reflected by reductions in SOTIPS scores, showed lower rates of recidivism than those who did not.

A mathematical proof and example that Bayes's Theorem is fundamental to actuarial estimates of sexual recidivism risk.

Expert witnesses in sexually violent predator (SVP) cases often rely on actuarial instruments to make risk determinations. Many questions surround their use, however. Bayes's Theorem holds much promise for addressing these questions. Some experts nonetheless claim that Bayesian analyses are inadmissible in SVP cases because they are not accepted by the relevant scientific community. This position is illogical because Bayes's Theorem is simply a probabilistic restatement of the way that frequency data are combined to arrive at whatever recidivism rates are paired with each test score in an actuarial table. This article presents a mathematical proof and example validating this assertion. The advantages and implications of a logic model that combines Bayes's Theorem and the null hypothesis are also discussed.

Utility of the Revised Level of Service Inventory (LSI-R) in predicting recidivism after long-term incarceration.

Assessing an inmate's risk for recidivism may become more challenging as the length of incarceration increases. Although the population of Long-Term Inmates (LTIs) is burgeoning, no risk assessment tools have been specifically validated for this group. Based on a sample of 1,144 inmates released in a state without parole, we examine the utility of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) in assessing risk of general and violent felony recidivism for LTIs (n = 555). Results indicate that (a) the LSI-R moderately predicts general, but not necessarily violent, recidivism, and (b) this predictive utility is not moderated by LTI status, and is based in part on ostensibly dynamic risk factors. Implications for informing parole decision-making and risk management for LTIs are discussed.

Accuracy and utility of post-conviction polygraph testing of sex offenders.

BACKGROUND: Polygraphy is used increasingly in the treatment and supervision of sex offenders, but little research has addressed its accuracy in this setting, or linked accuracy with utility. AIMS: To investigate the utility and accuracy of polygraphy in post-conviction testing of community-based sex offenders. METHOD: A self-report measure examined the experiences of offenders with polygraphy. RESULTS: Based on self-report, the polygraph's accuracy was approximately 85%. False negatives and false positives were not associated with demographic characteristics, personality variables or IQ. The majority of offenders found the polygraph to be helpful in both treatment and supervision. Nine percent of offenders claimed to have made false disclosures; these individuals had higher scores on ratings of neuroticism and lower scores on ratings of conscientiousness. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the view that the polygraph is both accurate and useful in the treatment and supervision of sex offenders.

The use of actuarials at civil commitment hearings to predict the likelihood of future sexual violence.

Some have argued that acturarial methods such as the RRASOR, the MNSOSTR, and the Static-99, can outperform clinical judgments when utilized at a civil commitment hearing to make a prediction. Although actuarial data can be used to identify a group of persons to be considered for possible civil commitment, at present it cannot be used to accurately predict the likelihood of future acts of sexual violence with respect to any specific individual within such a group. For that reason, it might be best to restrict the use of acturial data to the initial screening process, rather than introducing it at the commitment hearing itself.

Actuarial risk assessment: commentary on Berlin et al.

F. S. Berlin, N. W. Galbreath, B. Geary, and G. McGlone (this issue) have raised some important questions regarding the use of acturial risk assessment instruments in sex offender civil commitment proceedings, also known as sexually violent predator or SVP proceedings. Their primary point is that interpreting the findings of existing actuarial risk assessment instruments is a tricky business because it is not certain whether the extent to which probability estimates derived from group data can be applied to individual cases. I agree completely with Berlin et al. on this point, but disagree with them concerning the extent to which probability estimates--and, therefore, actuarial instruments--are legally relevant in SVP proceedings. I outline some potential problems with respect to the legal admissibility of actuarial instruments, including their legal relevance.

A matter of life or death: special considerations and heightened practice standards in capital sentencing evaluations.

Mental health evaluations at capital sentencing represent a complex and specialized arena of practice. The moral culpability focus of capital sentencing is distinct from guilt-phase considerations of criminal responsibility, and has a specialized literature. Capital violence risk assessment is uniquely oriented to a prison context, relying on past adjustment to incarceration, as well as group statistical data specific to capital offenders and other inmate groups. Personality testing is a more complex consideration in capital sentencing evaluations. The implications of interviewing the defendant, as well as the parameters and documentation of an interview, make full disclosure and informed consent of particular importance. Defense- and prosecution-retained experts are subject to specific ethical vulnerabilities. These are examined in this paper through the lens of current professional standards.

Clinical evaluations for transfer of juveniles to criminal court: current practices and future research.

Completing clinical evaluations of juveniles considered for transfer to criminal court requires specialized expertise. However, there is little empirical foundation upon which they can be based. Within each of the three major evaluation domains (amenability to treatment, risk for future violence, and sophistication/maturity), we ask the following questions: a) Can forensic examiners properly assess this area, and if so using what tools?; b) How can social science research clarify the transfer evaluation, particularly as it is impacted by systems issues?; and c) How should the evaluation be structured? In doing so, we review clinical suggestions for completing these evaluations and identify pertinent research directions. A number of general issues specific to these evaluations are also discussed.