Vigilancia de enfermedades febriles exantemáticas / Surveillance of febrile diseases

Actualización mundial sobre sarampión a marzo de 2022, y datos en la región de las Américas y en Argentina. Se presentan los datos de casos notificados en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, a la Semana Epidemiológica 12 de 2022, cobertura de vacunación, y acciones de vigilancia epidemiológica.

Spatial Clustering of Vaccine Exemptions on the Risk of a Measles Outbreak.

OBJECTIVES: Areas of increased school-entry vaccination exemptions play a key role in epidemics of vaccine-preventable diseases in the United States. California eliminated nonmedical exemptions in 2016, which increased overall vaccine coverage but also rates of medical exemptions. We examine how spatial clustering of exemptions contributed to measles outbreak potential pre- and postpolicy change. METHODS: We modeled measles transmission in an empirically calibrated hypothetical population of youth aged 0 to 17 years in California and compared outbreak sizes under the observed spatial clustering of exemptions in schools pre- and postpolicy change with counterfactual scenarios of no postpolicy change increase in medical exemptions, no clustering of exemptions, and lower population immunization levels. RESULTS: The elimination of nonmedical exemptions significantly reduced both average and maximal outbreak sizes, although increases in medical exemptions resulted in more than twice as many infections, on average, than if medical exemptions were maintained at prepolicy change levels. Spatial clustering of nonmedical exemptions provided some initial protection against random introduction of measles infections; however, it ultimately allowed outbreaks with thousands more infections than when exemptions were randomly distributed. The large-scale outbreaks produced by exemption clusters could not be reproduced when exemptions were distributed randomly until population vaccination was lowered by >6 percentage points. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the high overall vaccinate rate, the spatial clustering of exemptions in schools was sufficient to threaten local herd immunity and reduce protection from measles outbreaks. Policies strengthening vaccine requirements may be less effective if alternative forms of exemptions (eg, medical) are concentrated in existing low-immunization areas.

Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination.

Although the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one [Formula: see text]. This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one [Formula: see text], and if greater than one [Formula: see text] epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on [Formula: see text]. The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute [Formula: see text] and measles prevalence [Formula: see text] with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate [Formula: see text] had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.

Congenital Measles in a Premature 25-week Gestation Infant.

We describe a premature infant with congenital measles. Laboratory testing confirmed measles in the mother (polymerase chain reaction- and IgM-positive) and congenital measles in the infant (polymerase chain reaction-positive, culture-positive and IgM-positive). The infant never developed a rash, pneumonia, or neurologic complications. This case supports using compatible laboratory findings to diagnose congenital measles in infants without clinical manifestations of measles.

Emerging and Re-emerging Infections in Children: COVID/ MIS-C, Zika, Ebola, Measles, Varicella, Pertussis ... Immunizations.

The role of the emergency provider lies at the forefront of recognition and treatment of novel and re-emerging infectious diseases in children. Familiarity with disease presentations that might be considered rare, such as vaccine-preventable and non-endemic illnesses, is essential in identifying and controlling outbreaks. As we have seen thus far in the novel coronavirus pandemic, susceptibility, severity, transmission, and disease presentation can all have unique patterns in children. Emergency providers also have the potential to play a public health role by using lessons learned from the phenomena of vaccine hesitancy and refusal.

A large outbreak of measles in the West Midlands, England, 2017-2018: descriptive epidemiology, control measures and lessons learnt.

In November 2017, eight confirmed measles cases were reported to Public Health England from a hospital in the West Midlands. A multidisciplinary Incident Management Team (IMT) was established to determine the extent of the problem and coordinate an outbreak response. Between 1 November 2017 and 4 June 2018, a total of 116 confirmed and 21 likely measles cases were linked to this outbreak; just under half (43%) were aged over 15 years of age. Fifty-five of the confirmed cases were hospitalised (48%) and no deaths were reported. At the start of the outbreak, cases were mostly individuals of Romanian origin; the outbreak subsequently spread to the wider population. Over the 8-month response, the IMT conducted the following control measures: extensive contact tracing, immediate provision of post-exposure prophylaxis, community engagement amongst specific high-risk groups, MMR awareness raising including catch-up campaigns and enhanced vaccination services at selected GP surgeries. Key challenges to the effective control measures included language difficulties limiting community engagement; delays in diagnosis, notification and appropriate isolation of cases; limited resources for contact tracing across multiple high-risk settings (including GPs and hospitals) and lack of timely data on vaccine coverage in sub-groups of the population to guide public health action.

A measles outbreak in Kansai International Airport, Japan, 2016: Analysis of the quantitative difference and infectivity of measles virus between patients who are immunologically naive versus those with secondary vaccine failure.

Since the elimination of the measles virus, patients with vaccination records for the measles-containing vaccine have increased in Japan. According to several studies, the transmission risk from previously immunized patients, especially those with secondary vaccine failure (SVF), is lower than that from those with primary measles infections. Immunological features of SVF were identified per specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) induction with high avidity and high plaque reduction neutralization antibody concentration. However, the virological features of SVF have not been well investigated. To examine not only immunological but also virological differences between SVF and immunologically naive patients, throat swabs and blood and urine specimens of 25 patients with confirmed measles infection after an outbreak at the Kansai International Airport in 2016 were analyzed. Patients were categorized as naive (n = 3) or with SVF (n = 22) based on measles-specific IgG antibody concentrations and their avidity. Virus isolation and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction were performed to quantify the viral load in clinical specimens and estimate the infectivity in each specimen. The number of viral genome copies in the blood specimens of those with SVF was significantly different and approximately 1 out of 100 of that in immunologically naive patients. However, genome copy numbers in throat swabs and urine specimens were not significantly different between the groups. The virus was isolated only from those in the naive group. Our study indicated low transmission risk of the virus in patients with SVF.

Clustering of susceptible individuals within households can drive measles outbreaks: an individual-based model exploration.

When estimating important measures such as the herd immunity threshold, and the corresponding efforts required to eliminate measles, it is often assumed that susceptible individuals are uniformly distributed throughout populations. However, unvaccinated individuals may be clustered in a variety of ways, including by geographic location, by age, in schools, or in households. Here, we investigate to which extent different levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals may impact the risk and persistence of measles outbreaks. To this end, we apply an individual-based model, Stride, to a population of 600,000 individuals, using data from Flanders, Belgium. We construct a metric to estimate the level of within-household susceptibility clustering in the population. Furthermore, we compare realistic scenarios regarding the distribution of susceptible individuals within households in terms of their impact on epidemiological measures for outbreak risk and persistence. We find that higher levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals increase the risk, size and persistence of measles outbreaks. Ignoring within-household clustering thus leads to underestimations of required measles elimination and outbreak mitigation efforts.

Modeling of the Transmission of Coronaviruses, Measles Virus, Influenza Virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and Legionella pneumophila in Dental Clinics.

Dental health care workers are in close contact to their patients and are therefore at higher risk for contracting airborne infectious diseases. The transmission rates of airborne pathogens from patient to dental health care workers are unknown. With the outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as seasonal influenza, occasional outbreaks of measles and tuberculosis, and the current pandemic of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, it is important to estimate the risks for dental health care workers. Therefore, the transmission probability of these airborne infectious diseases was estimated via mathematical modeling. The transmission probability was modeled for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Legionella pneumophila, measles virus, influenza virus, and coronaviruses per a modified version of the Wells-Riley equation. This equation incorporated the indoor air quality by using carbon dioxide as a proxy and added the respiratory protection rate from medical face masks and N95 respirators. Scenario-specific analyses, uncertainty analyses, and sensitivity analyses were run to produce probability rates. A high transmission probability was characterized by high patient infectiousness, the absence of respiratory protection, and poor indoor air quality. The highest transmission probabilities were estimated for measles virus (100%), coronaviruses (99.4%), influenza virus (89.4%), and M. tuberculosis (84.0%). The low-risk scenario leads to transmission probabilities of 4.5% for measles virus and 0% for the other pathogens. From the sensitivity analysis, it shows that the transmission probability is strongly driven by indoor air quality, followed by patient infectiousness, and the least by respiratory protection from medical face mask use. Airborne infection transmission of pathogens such as measles virus and coronaviruses is likely to occur in the dental practice. The risk magnitude, however, is highly dependent on specific conditions in each dental clinic. Improved indoor air quality by ventilation, which reduces carbon dioxide, is the most important factor that will either strongly increase or decrease the probability of the transmission of a pathogen.

Estimating the nationwide transmission risk of measles in US schools and impacts of vaccination and supplemental infection control strategies.

BACKGROUND: The spread of airborne infectious diseases such as measles is a critical public health concern. The U.S. was certified measles-free in 2000, but the number of measles cases has increased in recent years breaking the record of the nationwide annual number of cases since 1992. Although the characteristics of schools have made them one of the most vulnerable environments during infection outbreaks, the transmission risk of measles among students is not completely understood. We aimed to evaluate how three factors influence measles transmission in schools: personal (vaccination), social (compartmentalizing), and building systems (ventilation, purification, and filtration). METHODS: We used a combination of a newly developed multi-zone transient Wells-Riley approach, a nationwide representative School Building Archetype (SBA) model, and a Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate measles risk among U.S. students. We compared our risk results with the range of reported transmission rates of measles in school outbreaks to validate the risk model. We also investigated the effectiveness of vaccination and ten supplemental infection control scenarios for reducing the risk of measles transmission among students. RESULTS: Our best nationwide estimate of measles transmission risk in U.S. schools were 3.5 and 32% among all (both unvaccinated and immunized) and unvaccinated students, respectively. The results showed the transmission risk of measles among unvaccinated students is > 70 times higher than properly immunized ones. We also demonstrated that the transmission risk of measles in primary schools (assuming teacher self-contained classrooms) is less than secondary schools (assuming departmentalized systems). For building-level interventions, schools with ductless-with-air-filter and ductless-without-air-filter systems have the lowest and highest transmission risks of measles, respectively. Finally, our simulation showed that infection control strategies could cut the average number of infected cases among all students in half when a combination of advanced air filtration, ventilation, and purification was adopted in the modeled schools. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the primary importance of vaccination for reducing the risk of measles transmission among students. Yet, additional and significant risk reduction can be achieved through compartmentalizing students and enhancing building ventilation and filtration systems.

Mapping a nosocomial outbreak of measles, coinciding with a period of sustained transmission in South London in 2018.

A measles outbreak in London is described, involving 34 cases across two hospitals and a local community across two countries. After a single introduction to hospital, spread propagated via unvaccinated retail shop workers to healthcare staff, highlighting the importance of expanding occupational health policies to non-clinical hospital staff. Further spread into an under-vaccinated Traveller community is a reminder that measles can spread in the absence of herd immunity. Subsequently endemic measles transmission has been re-established in the UK.

A descriptive analysis of an outbreak of measles and a multilevel mixed-effects analysis of factors associated with case isolation in healthcare settings, London (February-June 2016).

OBJECTIVES: We described the epidemiology and healthcare exposures during a measles outbreak in London and identified factors associated with isolation on arrival to healthcare premises. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a cohort study including all confirmed measles cases in London residents from February 1, 2016, to June 30, 2016, and semistructured interviews with two infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs). METHODS: We described the outbreak and conducted a multilevel mixed-effects analysis to assess the relationship between sociodemographic and clinical factors and isolation on arrival to healthcare premises. We summarised the interviews. RESULTS: There were 182 cases, mostly aged 17-35 years (46%; 84). Excluding cases younger than one year, 76% (92/120) were unvaccinated, including two healthcare workers. The majority presented with rash (97%; 174), and 42% (70/166) required hospitalisation. Of the recorded cases, 93% of cases (164/178) had visited a healthcare setting during their infectious period (median number of visits = 2). In 33% (59/178) of the visits, the case was isolated on arrival; when not isolated, four healthcare exposures resulted in further transmission. Presenting to the hospital as opposed to a general practitioner (GP) was associated with higher odds of isolation (odds ratio = 2.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.1-4.4) when adjusted for age, gender and presenting with a cough. The IPCT identified measles training using standardised risk assessments by triage nurses in accident and emergency and intelligence regarding measles activity in the community as positive measures to prevent healthcare exposures. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend opportunistic immunisation of unvaccinated young adults by GPs and that occupational health departments ensure their staff are protected against measles. Raising measles awareness in healthcare settings via training or regular sharing of current measles surveillance activity from public health to the IPCT and GP may improve triage and isolation of cases on arrival to healthcare premises.