Impact-based forecasting of tropical cyclone-related human displacement to support anticipatory action.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) displace millions every year. While TCs pose hardships and threaten lives, their negative impacts can be reduced by anticipatory actions like evacuation and humanitarian aid coordination. In addition to weather forecasts, impact forecast enables more effective response by providing richer information on the numbers and locations of people at risk of displacement. We introduce a fully open-source implementation of a globally consistent and regionally calibrated TC-related displacement forecast at low computational costs, combining meteorological forecast with population exposure and respective vulnerability. We present a case study of TC Yasa which hit Fiji in December 2020. We emphasise the importance of considering the uncertainties associated with hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a global uncertainty analysis, which reveals a considerable spread of possible outcomes. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis on all recorded TC displacement events from 2017 to 2020 to understand how the forecast outcomes depend on these uncertain inputs. Our findings suggest that for longer forecast lead times, decision-making should focus more on meteorological uncertainty, while greater emphasis should be placed on the vulnerability of the local community shortly before TC landfall. Our open-source codes and implementations are readily transferable to other users, hazards, and impact types.

Aedes aegypti feeding behavior during dengue outbreaks in two rural areas of Peru during the Yaku cyclone and El Niño phenomenon of 2023. / Comportamiento alimentario de Aedes aegypti en brotes de dengue de dos zonas rurales del Perú durante el ciclón Yaku y El Niño Global del 2023.

BACKGROUND: Motivation for the study. Dengue epidemics caused by A. aegypti occur during climatic events in tropical countries such as Peru; however, the feeding behavior of the mosquito usually goes unnoticed. BACKGROUND: Main findings. A. aegypti populations in Marcavelica and Querecotillo showed anthropophilic feeding behavior during cyclone Yaku and in the 2023 El Niño. However, populations with different feeding patterns are not ruled out. BACKGROUND: Implications. The PCR-RFLP technique of the blood cell cytochrome B gene could be implemented in vector control policies through an entomo-virological surveillance plan. OBJECTIVE.: To determine the feeding behavior of Aedes aegypti in dengue outbreaks in two rural areas of Peru during the Yaku cyclone and El Niño phenomenon of 2023. MATERIAL AND METHODS.: Eight blood samples (8 pools) were obtained from the abdomen of 80 Aedes aegypti specimens captured in the rural districts of Querecotillo and Marcavelica during the Yaku cyclone and El Niño dengue outbreaks. DNA was extracted from the analyzed samples, then a PCR was directed at the CytB gene as a genetic marker and the PCR products were enzymatically digested with the restrictases Hae III and Mwo I. The PCR-RFLP products were visualized by agarose gel electrophoresis at 4%. RESULTS.: DNA was obtained from all samples and a 358 bp amplicon was obtained as a PCR product. Likewise, the only RFLP found in Hae III was from Homo sapiens sapiens (233 and 125 bp). RFLP was not found in Hae III of Gallus gallus and RFLP in Mwo I of Canis familiaris and Mus musculus. CONCLUSION.: Aedes aegypti showed conserved anthropophilic feeding behavior in dengue outbreaks in rural areas during the Yaku cyclone and El Niño.

Compounding impacts of COVID-19, cyclone and price crash on vanilla farmers' food security and natural resource use.

The intersection of the COVID-19 pandemic with other crises can amplify vulnerabilities and push communities further into poverty. In low-income countries, the dual impacts of COVID-19 and extreme weather events, along with multidimensional poverty and structural vulnerabilities in agriculture can decimate farmer livelihoods. This study aims to understand the effects of individual and compounding crises (COVID-19, cyclones, and vanilla price collapse) on smallholder vanilla farmers and local coping strategies in Madagascar, one of the world's largest vanilla producers and poorest countries. We used semi-structured and scenario-based interviews across two case study villages with contrasting enforcement of forest regulations. We found that the impact of the pandemic, combined with the cyclone event, disrupted livelihoods, resulting in income losses and food security challenges that exacerbated farmer vulnerabilities. Sixty eight percent of households reported crop losses due to strong winds and heavy rainfall brought by cyclone Enawo in 2017. The COVID-19 outbreak struck the region just as the residents were recovering from the effects of the cyclone. COVID-19-related travel restrictions in the aftermath of the cyclone took a substantial economic toll, with 54.1% of respondents experiencing a decline in earnings, and 17% facing a total loss of income due to the imposed lockdown. The decline in vanilla prices at the onset of 2020 had a far-reaching additional impact, affecting not only farmers but also residents who rely on other sources of income. Local communities reported using the forest resources more frequently as a safety net during crises in the village with more lenient regulations. This study underscores the importance of understanding the interconnectedness and compounding impacts of cascading crises on food security and natural resource use. We highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to increasing farmer resilience, particularly for those reliant on global market crops such as vanilla.

Machine learning-based assessment of regional-scale variation of landslide susceptibility in central Vietnam.

Recurrent landslide events triggered by typhoons and tropical storms over Vietnam pose a longstanding threat to the nation's population and infrastructure. Changes in hydroclimatic conditions, especially the growing intensity and frequency of storms, have elevated landslide susceptibility in many parts of the country. This research examines the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility across central Vietnam over several years, using multi-temporal landslide inventories from Typhoon Ketsana (2009), Tropical Storm Podul (2013), and Typhoon Molave (2020). Additionally, the research explores the impact of individual landslide causative factors on the probabilistic occurrences of landslides. The post-event landslide susceptibility models of these three climate extreme events were developed using nine causative factors and a Random Forest machine learning algorithm. The results indicate a notable areal expansion of high to very high landslide susceptibility in the northern and eastern regions and a moderate reduction in the central and southern areas during the post-Molave period compared to the post-Ketsana period. These changes may be early indicators of increasing landslide susceptibility in response to changing hydro-climatic conditions. The research found that annual average rainfall and topographic elevation are the two most important variables influencing landslide prediction, showing a nonlinear relationship with landslide probability. The landslide susceptibility models achieved high Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) (>95%), accuracy (>89%), and sensitivity (>90%) scores, signifying the robustness of the models. Additionally, the uncertainty of the models was quantified and spatially mapped. This multi-temporal analysis of landslide susceptibility is crucial for understanding the regional susceptibility trends and identifying areas with increasing, decreasing, and consistently high susceptibility to landslides. These insights are invaluable for prioritizing mitigation and risk reduction strategies in landslide-prone regions and guiding appropriate land use planning.

Investigation of Psychometric Properties and Correlation with Psychological Distress after Hurricane Hazards in Puerto Rico.

BACKGROUND: Puerto Rico (PR) is highly vulnerable to hurricanes, which severely impact cancer survivors by causing healthcare disruptions and increasing stress. This study investigates the reliability and factor structure of the Hurricane Hazards Inventory (HHI) and its relationship with psychological distress among cancer survivors and non-cancer controls in PR. METHODS: Using secondary data from a longitudinal study following Hurricane Maria (HM), the baseline assessment included sociodemographic data from participants, HHI, Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8), and Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7). Statistical analyses involved descriptive statistics, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). RESULTS: Among 260 participants, 78.7% were women, with a median age of 58.0 years. EFA reduced the HHI to 17 items grouped into three factors explaining 62.6% of the variance with excellent reliability (Cronbach's alpha 0.91). The three factors also showed good to excellent reliability (alpha 0.81 to 0.92). The median HHI score was 11.0 (range 4.0-26.5) out of 68. PLS-SEM revealed a direct effect of being a cancer survivor and tertiary hazards on depression and anxiety. CONCLUSION: The HHI is a valid and reliable tool for assessing mental health impact in cancer survivors after hurricanes. However, the study had limitations, including its small sample size and lack of control for all confounding variables. Future research with larger and more diverse samples is needed to further validate the HHI and examine its generalizability.

Cancer Treatment Disruption by Residence Region in the Aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and María in Puerto Rico.

Since 2017, Puerto Rico has faced environmental, economic, and political crises, leading to the emigration of healthcare workers and weakening the healthcare system. These challenges have affected cancer treatment continuity, exacerbating healthcare access challenges island-wide. In this study, we estimate the effect of the residence region on cancer treatment disruption following Hurricanes Irma and María (2017). Telephone surveys were conducted with 241 breast and colorectal cancer patients aged 40 and older who were diagnosed within six months before the hurricanes and were receiving treatment at the time of the hurricanes. Treatment disruption was defined as any pause in surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, or oral treatment due to the hurricanes. Prevalence ratios (PRs) of treatment disruption by residence region were estimated using the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA) as the reference. Fifty-nine percent of respondents reported treatment disruption; among them, half experienced disruptions lasting more than 30 days, with 14% of these enduring disruptions longer than 90 days. Adjusted models showed a 48% higher prevalence of disruption outside the SJMA (PR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.06-2.07). Specific geographic regions (Arecibo, Bayamón, Caguas, and Mayagüez) exhibited higher disruption prevalence. These findings emphasize the need for disaster preparedness strategies that ensure equitable healthcare access for all cancer patients following environmental calamities.

Safeguarding Patients with End-Stage Kidney Disease From Climate-driven Extreme Heat and Hurricanes.

5wPatients with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) who receive in-center hemodialysis are disproportionately vulnerable to extreme weather events, including hurricanes and heat waves, that may disrupt access to healthcare providers, and life-sustaining treatments. This current era of climate-driven compounding disasters is progressively elevating the level of threat to the health and well-being of patients with ESKD. This analysis brings together multi-disciplinary expertise to explore the contours of this increasingly complex risk landscape. Despite the challenges, important advances have been made for safeguarding this medically high-risk patient population. Hemodialysis services providers have devised innovative systems for preparing their patients and sustaining, or rapidly reestablishing, hemodialysis services in the aftermath of a disaster, and maintaining open lines of communication with their caseloads of ESKD patients throughout all phases of the event. A description of lessons learned along the path towards improved patient support in disasters, is provided. The article concludes with a detailed case example, describing dialysis providers' effective response throughout Hurricane Ian's passage across the State of Florida in 2022. Based on lessons learned, this analysis outlines strategies for protecting patients with ESKD that may be adapted for future climate-potentiated disaster scenarios.

Treatment-related Problems and Countermeasures for Patients Undergoing Maintenance Hemodialysis Following Tropical Cyclones: A Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis face heightened vulnerability during disasters like tropical cyclones, yet there is sparse research on their treatment-related challenges and countermeasures. This scoping review aims to highlight the issues maintenance hemodialysis patients encounter following tropical cyclones. METHODS: A systematic scoping review of 19 articles from 2000 to 2023 was conducted, evaluating eligibility against predefined criteria. RESULTS: Hemodialysis patients encounter substantial challenges during and after tropical cyclones in the United States, Puerto Rico, Australia, and Taiwan. Thematic analysis identified 3 themes related to "challenges" (Hemodialysis health-related challenges, socially relevant challenges, and challenges of management inefficiencies). "Recommendations" comprised 4 themes and 4 phases across the "mitigation phase" (fortifying healthcare infrastructure and mobilizing community-focused risk mitigation initiatives), "preparedness" (emergency plan development, training, and patient education), "response" (activation of emergency plans and providing emergency healthcare services), and "recovery" (intersectoral collaboration for recovery and rebuilding). CONCLUSION: This scoping review underscores challenges confronted by patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis post-tropical cyclones, highlighting the urgent need for targeted strategies to ensure the continuity of dialysis care during and after such disasters.

Hispanic Cancer Survivors Exposed to Multiple Natural Disasters: Pre-Post-Disaster Changes in Anxiety, Depression, PTSD, Perceived Stress, and Physical Symptom Burden.

BACKGROUND: Studies evaluating the effects of natural disasters on cancer outcomes are scarce, especially among USA ethnic minority groups, and none have focused on the effects of concurrent natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this secondary data analysis is to explore the impact of concurrent exposure to COVID-19 and earthquakes on psychological distress and symptom burden among Puerto Rican cancer survivors. METHODS: This secondary data analysis (n = 101) was part of a longitudinal case-control cohort study (n = 402) aimed at describing unmet psychological needs among Puerto Rican cancer patients and non-cancer subjects previously exposed to Hurricane María in 2017. The research team pooled data from participants (cancer survivors and non-cancer group) from their baseline assessments and from follow-up assessments conducted during January-July 2020 (earthquake and the lockdown period). A descriptive, paired t-test, non-parametric mean rank test, and two-sided Pearson correlation analyses were performed. RESULTS: Psychological distress and cancer symptom burden diminished over time. Resilience was significantly correlated with all the psychological and symptom burden variables during both pre- and post-earthquake and COVID-19 assessment periods. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the role of resilience, social support, and post-traumatic growth as potential protective factors preventing psychological distress and diminishing cancer symptom burden among cancer survivors exposed to natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Leptospirosis Outbreak in Aftermath of Hurricane Fiona - Puerto Rico, 2022.

Leptospirosis, an acute bacterial zoonotic disease, is endemic in Puerto Rico. Infection in approximately 10%-15% of patients with clinical disease progresses to severe, potentially fatal illness. Increased incidence has been associated with flooding in endemic areas around the world. In 2022, Hurricane Fiona, a Category 1 hurricane, made landfall and inundated Puerto Rico with heavy rainfall and severe flooding, increasing the risk for a leptospirosis outbreak. In response, the Puerto Rico Department of Health (PRDH) changed guidelines to make leptospirosis cases reportable within 24 hours, centralized the case investigation management system, and provided training and messaging to health care providers. To evaluate changes in risk for leptospirosis after Hurricane Fiona to that before the storm, the increase in cases was quantified, and patient characteristics and geographic distribution were compared. During the 15 weeks after Hurricane Fiona, 156 patients experienced signs and symptoms of leptospirosis and had a specimen with a positive laboratory result reported to PRDH. The mean weekly number of cases during this period was 10.4, which is 3.6 as high as the weekly number of cases during the previous 37 weeks (2.9). After Hurricane Fiona, the proportion of cases indicating exposure to potentially contaminated water increased from 11% to 35%, and the number of persons receiving testing increased; these factors likely led to the resulting overall surge in reported cases. Robust surveillance combined with outreach to health care providers after flooding events can improve leptospirosis case identification, inform clinicians considering early initiation of treatment, and guide public messaging to avoid wading, swimming, or any contact with potentially contaminated floodwaters.

Effects of Hurricane Irma on mosquito abundance and species composition in a metropolitan Gulf coastal city, 2016-2018.

Mosquitoes are the most common disease vectors worldwide. In coastal cities, the spread, activity, and longevity of vector mosquitoes are influenced by environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall, which affect their geographic distribution, biting rates, and lifespan. We examined mosquito abundance and species composition before and after Hurricane Irma in Miami, Dade County, Florida, and identified which mosquito species predominated post-Hurricane Irma. Our results showed that mosquito populations increased post-Hurricane Irma: 7.3 and 8.0 times more mosquitoes were captured in 2017 than at baseline, 2016 and 2018 respectively. Warmer temperatures accelerated larval development, resulting in faster emergence of adult mosquitoes. In BG-Sentinel traps, primary species like Ae. tortills, Cx. nigripalpus, and Cx. quinquefasciatus dominated the post-Hurricane Irma period. Secondary vectors that dominated post-Hurricane Irma include An. atropos, An. crucians, An. quadrimaculatus, Cx. erraticus, and Ps. columbiae. After Hurricane Irma, the surge in mosquito populations in Miami, Florida heightened disease risk. To mitigate and prevent future risks, we must enhance surveillance, raise public awareness, and implement targeted vector control measures.

Community responses of testate amoebae (Arcellinida and Euglyphida) to ecological disturbance explained by contrasting assembly mechanisms in two subtropical reservoirs.

Mechanisms underlying the effects of ecological disturbance on aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain in subtropical regions. Here, we used a proxy-based approach to explore the community dynamics of testate amoebae (Arcellinida and Euglyphida) in two subtropical deep reservoirs (Tingxi and Shidou) in Xiamen, southeastern China, over a three-year period. Specifically, we employed drought and typhoon events recorded by weather station as proxies for ecological disturbance and chlorophyll-a estimated through fluorometry as a proxy for testate amoeba food. We addressed three questions: (1) Does typhoon-induced ecological disturbance affect the distribution patterns of testate amoebae in subtropical reservoirs? (2) Do typhoon- and drought-induced ecological disturbances affect the testate amoeba community across different water layers of subtropical reservoirs similarly? (3) Do stochastic or deterministic processes shaping the testate amoeba community over time exhibit similar patterns in different water layers of subtropical reservoirs? The typhoon-induced ecological disturbance resulted in pronounced shifts in the distribution patterns of testate amoebae, characterized by lower shell influx in surface waters (11-12 ind. mL-1 d-1) and higher shell influx in middle and bottom waters (12-22 ind. mL-1 d-1). The impact of typhoon-and drought-induced ecological disturbance was more pronounced in surface waters, and its pure explanation accounted for 29.5-35.5 % community variation in a variation partitioning analysis. The effect of stochastic processes revealed by the neutral model increased with water depths, accounting for 63.3-76.5 % of the community variation in the surface, 77.4-82.6 % in the middle, and 82.8-88.1 % in the bottom water. The effect of deterministic processes shown by the null model decreased with water depth and remained relatively low across all water layers. These results suggest contrasting patterns of assembly mechanisms underlying the testate amoeba community responses to ecological disturbance, with the balance perhaps shaped by water depth and the average water residence time in a reservoir.

Risks of infectious disease hospitalisations in the aftermath of tropical cyclones: a multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of intense tropical cyclones is expected to increase in a changing climate. However, there is currently no consistent and comprehensive assessment of infectious disease risk following tropical cyclone exposure across countries and over decades. We aimed to explore the tropical cyclone-associated hospitalisation risks and burden for cause-specific infectious diseases on a multi-country scale. METHODS: Hospitalisation records for infectious diseases were collected from six countries and territories (Canada, South Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam) during various periods between 2000 and 2019. The days with tropical cyclone-associated maximum sustained windspeeds of 34 knots or higher derived from a parametric wind field model were considered as tropical cyclone exposure days. The association of monthly infectious diseases hospitalisations and tropical cyclone exposure days was first examined at location level using a distributed lag non-linear quasi-Poisson regression model, and then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. The tropical cyclone-attributable number and fraction of infectious disease hospitalisations were also calculated. FINDINGS: Overall, 2·2 million people who were hospitalised for infectious diseases in 179 locations that had at least one tropical cyclone exposure day in the six countries and territories were included in the analysis. The elevated hospitalisation risks for infectious diseases associated with tropical cyclones tended to dissipate 2 months after the tropical cyclone exposure. Overall, each additional tropical cyclone day was associated with a 9% (cumulative relative risk 1·09 [95% CI 1·05-1·14]) increase in hospitalisations for all-cause infectious diseases, 13% (1·13 [1·05-1·21]) for intestinal infectious diseases, 14% (1·14 [1·05-1·23]) for sepsis, and 22% (1·22 [1·03-1·46]) for dengue during the 2 months after a tropical cyclone. Associations of tropical cyclones with hospitalisations for tuberculosis and malaria were not significant. In total, 0·72% (95% CI 0·40-1·01) of the hospitalisations for all-cause infectious diseases, 0·33% (0·15-0·49) for intestinal infectious diseases, 1·31% (0·57-1·95) for sepsis, and 0·63% (0·10-1·04) for dengue were attributable to tropical cyclone exposures. The attributable burdens were higher among young populations (aged ≤19 years) and male individuals compared with their counterparts, especially for intestinal infectious diseases. The heterogeneous spatiotemporal pattern was further revealed at the country and territory level-tropical cyclone-attributable fractions showed a decreasing trend in South Korea during the study period but an increasing trend in Viet Nam, Taiwan, and New Zealand. INTERPRETATION: Tropical cyclones were associated with persistent elevated hospitalisation risks of infectious diseases (particularly sepsis and intestinal infectious diseases). Targeted interventions should be formulated for different populations, regions, and causes of infectious diseases based on evidence on tropical cyclone epidemiology to respond to the increasing risk and burden. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health, and Medical Research Council.

Maladaptive behaviors in disasters: case study evaluation of Hurricane Hugo, Hurricane Katrina and the Haiti Earthquake.

Maladaptive behaviors during a disaster refer to actions that do not benefit the individual or society. Quarantelli highlights several maladaptive behaviors myths associated with disasters: widespread antisocial behavior, passivity, role conflict or abandonment, and sudden widespread mental health breakdowns (1). Despite early work reporting these myths, the common perception is that maladaptive behaviors such as rioting, looting, panic, and criminal conduct are prevalent in the wake of disasters. This is despite research by de Ville de Goyet and Arnold which has called on public officials and the media to stop propagating false disaster myths (2, 3). The classic academic response has been that this is a misconception and that, in fact, such behaviors are a very small part of the overall disaster and are mostly non-existent. Misconceptions about the prevalence of maladaptive behaviors can lead to inappropriate resource allocation, such as allocating extra police officers to prevent looting when the overall crime rate for the most part, decreases during disasters (4). Furthermore, while there are several persistent maladaptive behaviors myths, this is confounded by the presence of actual negative behaviors post disaster: false damage claims, insurance fraud, illegally obtaining relief supplies, failure to provide contracted repair services, hoarding of essential items, psychological trauma (which can lead to intergenerational transmission of the disaster memory) and medications and price gouging (5).When reading lay-press articles about recent disasters, it appears that these behaviors are on the rise. This raises the question: Has there been a change in the basic human reaction to disasters and are maladaptive behaviors on the rise? This review article focuses on case studies from three natural disasters: Hurricanes Hugo and Katrina, and the Haiti Earthquake. The goal of this review article is to evaluate these three natural disasters for evidence of maladaptive behaviors.

Impact of tropical cyclone Biparjoy on oceanic parameters in the Arabian Sea.

Climate change is expected to intensify tropical cyclones (TCs), requiring a deeper understanding of their ecosystem impacts. This study investigated TC Biparjoy impact on parameters from June 6 to 19, 2023, using satellite and vertical profiles. Initially, Chlorophyll-a levels remained steady but surged above 4 mg/m3 after the high-intensity phase, indicating increased phytoplankton biomass. Sea surface temperature (SST) initially exceeded 32 °C, favoring cyclone intensification, but dropped below 26 °C post-high-intensity phase due to mixing and upwelling of cooler waters. The SST gradient exceeded 0.15 °C/km post-cyclone. Elevated sea surface height around 0.5 m offshore and over 1 m along the coast was recorded. Wind stress values exceeding 0.4 N/m3 were observed during the high-intensity phase. Vertical profile showed uplifted low-temperature, nutrient-rich waters, enhancing phytoplankton productivity, supported by increased nitrate (>10 mmol/m3) and phosphate (>1.2 mmol/m3) levels. Additionally, slight increase in DIC, and pH during the cyclone period suggested changes in biogeochemical processes.

Explosive cyclones occurred between 2010 and 2020 in the South Atlantic under the perspective of two detection schemes.

Under two detection schemes, this study analyzes one of the most destructive weather systems - the explosive cyclones - in the South Atlantic, from 2010 to 2020. Then, two methods are presented to study these systems: the Observational Method (OBSM) and the Automated Method (AUTM). The first uses visual analysis of the mean sea level pressure (mslp) fields and functions to identify the local minimums using the Grid Analysis and Display (GrADS) software. The second utilizes a function from OpenGrADS called mfhilo. It shows the local minimum in the grid using laplacian, magnitude, and percentile. Two shell algorithms for data manipulation are used for the AUTM: one to trace the cyclones' trajectories according to a previously defined fixed area and the other to separate them into explosives. The OBSM methodology showed 271 cases averaging 25 yearly and revealed important characteristics regarding the intensities. According to AUTM's methodology, from the 2705 ordinary cyclone cases identified, 299 are explosives. There is a clear seasonality pattern in the systems' distribution along South America, similar to OBSM, but more highlighted. In summer, they concentrate at high latitudes, while in winter and spring, they are assembled near southern Brazilian and Uruguayan coasts.

Risk and protective factors associated with substance use among Puerto Rican youths after Hurricane María: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying factors associated with post-disaster youth substance use is a crucial element of developing evidence-based prevention and intervention efforts. Hurricane María struck Puerto Rico in September of 2017 and the wide-spread impact from this disaster, including exposure to trauma, displacement, and disrupted social supports had the potential to negatively impact levels of substance use among youth across the archipelago. However, post-disaster substance use remains under-investigated in this context. The current study sought to identify risk and protective factors associated with substance use among Puerto Rican youth in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. METHODS: Cross-sectional, secondary data analyses were conducted using school-based survey data collected at all schools in Puerto Rico between February 1 and June 29, 2018 (5-9 months after Hurricane María). Social supports, substance use, and trauma symptoms were assessed. An ordinal regression analysis was conducted to identify student factors associated with greater likelihood of post-disaster substance use. RESULTS: A total of 36,485 participants (50.7% female, grades 7-12), were included in an ordinal regression analysis that compared the likelihood of respondents endorsing high, low, or no substance use after Hurricane María based on reported adult social support, counselor/teacher social support, peer social support, ptsd symptomatology, and gender. Findings showed that, when compared to students that endorsed low or no substance use, those who reported having adult social support demonstrated a 58% reduction in odds (OR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.34-0.53) of reporting high substance use after Hurricane María, while students who reported having teacher/counselor social support demonstrated a 21% reduction in odds (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.69-0.89) of reporting high substance use. Additionally, those that reported having peer social support demonstrated a 31% increase in odds (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.58) of reporting higher substance use, compared to those that reported low or no substance use. CONCLUSIONS: While social support was generally protective, prevention efforts to build positive family and community connections may be indicated. Evidence-based school screenings of substance use and trauma may help direct intervention to those most at risk for co-occurring issues.

Natural coral recovery despite negative population growth.

Demographic processes that ensure the recovery and resilience of marine populations are critical as climate change sends an increasing proportion on a trajectory of decline. Yet for some populations, recovery potential remains high. We conducted annual monitoring over 9 years (2012-2020) to assess the recovery of coral populations belonging to the genus Pocillopora. These populations experienced a catastrophic collapse following a severe typhoon in 2009. From the start of the monitoring period, high initial recruitment led to the establishment of a juvenile population that rapidly transitioned to sexually mature adults, which dominated the population within 6 years after the disturbance. As a result, coral cover increased from 1.1% to 20.2% during this time. To identify key demographic drivers of recovery and population growth rates (λ), we applied kernel-resampled integral projection models (IPMs), constructing eight successive models to examine annual change. IPMs were able to capture reproductive traits as key demographic drivers over the initial 3 years, while individual growth was a continuous key demographic driver throughout the entire monitoring period. IPMs further detected a pulse of reproductive output subsequent to two further Category 5 typhoon events during the monitoring period, exemplifying key mechanisms of resilience for coral populations impacted by disturbance. Despite rapid recovery, (i.e., increased coral cover, individual colony growth, low mortality), IPMs estimated predominantly negative values of λ, indicating a declining population. Indeed, while λ translates to a change in the number of individuals, the recovery of coral populations can also be driven by an increase in the size of surviving colonies. Our results illustrate that accumulating long-term data on historical dynamics and applying IPMs to extract demographic drivers are crucial for future predictions that are based on comprehensive and robust understandings of ecological change.

Tropical cyclone FANTALA's three turnbacks in the northeast of Madagascar Island.

The unique Tropical cyclone (TC) Fantala appeared in the central Indian Ocean (12.4°S, 73.5°E) at 00Z on April 11 in 2016 and moved northwestward along the northeast of Madagascar at 18 Z on April 15. Then, two incomprehensible turnbacks formed a unique TC track. The dynamic mechanisms of the three turnbacks were first studied based on remote sensing and multisource reanalysis data. The results reveal that the wind field with upper divergence and lower convergence promotes the development of Fantala. The anticyclone high pressure on the middle level atmosphere is an important factor for TC turnbacks. On 15 April, the TC made the first turnback to turn northwest due to the southward anticyclone weakened to moving northwest. On 18 April, the TC made the second turnback along the anticyclone edge due to the northern high-pressure and southern low-pressure trough. On 22 April, the TC made the third turnback because the anticyclonic high press center broke into two small independent anticyclonic centers in the southwest and northeast, which created a barrier band and pushed the northern TC to move to the northwest. Meanwhile, the vertical wind shear (VWS) also provides favorable conditions for TC turnbacks. On April 18, the middle atmosphere of the TC was affected by strong easterly shear and weak southerly shear, and the second turnback was completed. On April 22, the middle level environment was affected by strong westerly shear and weak north shear, and the third turnback was completed. Additionally, heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere provides favorable conditions for TC development. On April 18, The maximum mean latent heat flux over northeastern Madagascar was 112.94 W/m2, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential was 39.05 kJ/cm2, and the maximum wind speed at the center of the TC was 155 kts. On April 22, The heat transfer from the equator increased by 18.08 W/m2 compared with the latent heat on 21 April, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential was 33.30 kJ/cm2, the maximum wind speed in the TC center was 90 kts, the high PV centerspread down from 850 mb to 900 mb. This study deepens the understanding of track forecasting during the development of a TC.

The cumulative contribution of direct and indirect traumas to the production of PTSD.

OBJECTIVE: Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) affects millions of people worldwide. While the relationship between direct exposure to traumatic events and PTSD is well-established, the influence of indirect trauma exposure on PTSD remains unclear. It is similarly unclear what role cumulative exposure to direct and indirect traumas play in the risk of PTSD. METHODS: The study uses data from the Houston Trauma and Recovery Study, conducted on 2020-2021, and involved a random sampling of 1,167 individuals residing in Houston during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Participants were asked about their experiences related to both Hurricane Harvey and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic. Exposures were categorized as direct or indirect traumas, in line with the criteria delineated in the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5). Cumulative exposures were also calculated. RESULTS: Among participants, 12.6% were experiencing current PTSD. There were significant associations between both direct [OR = 3.18, 95% CI 1.85, 5.46] and indirect [OR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.05, 3.46] traumas related to Harvey, as well as direct [OR = 2.13, 95% CI 1.20, 3.77] and indirect [OR = 1.69, 95% CI 0.93, 3.09] traumas due to COVID and the risk of PTSD in fully adjusted models. Further, significant associations were found between the cumulative exposure to traumas from both Hurricane Harvey and COVID-19 and the risk of PTSD, considering both direct [OR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.36, 4.70] and indirect exposures [OR = 2.79, 95% CI 1.47, 5.28]. CONCLUSIONS: Our study offers support for connections between exposure to both direct and indirect traumas stemming from large-scale disasters and PTSD. Moreover, we show that cumulative exposures to multiple large-scale events increase the risk of PTSD. This highlights the importance of the consideration of a range of exposures as risks for PTSD, particularly in a time of compounding disasters and broad population exposures to these events.