Thrombotic Prediction Model Based on Epigenetic Regulator Mutations in Essential Thrombocythemia Patients Using Survival Analysis in Recurrent Events.

INTRODUCTION: Essential thrombocythemia (ET) involves the proliferation of megakaryocytes and platelets and is associated with an increased risk of thrombosis. We aimed to evaluate thrombotic risks in patients with epigenetic regulator mutations and generate a model to predict thrombosis in ET. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cohort study enrolled patients aged > 15 years diagnosed with ET at the Songklanakarind Hospital between January 2002 and December 2019. Twenty-five targeted gene mutations, including somatic driver mutations (JAK2, CALR, MPL), epigenetic regulator mutations (TET2, DNMT3A, IDH1, IDH2, TET2, ASXL1, EZH2, SF3B1, SRSF2) and other genes relevant to myeloid neoplasms, were identified using next-generation sequencing. Thrombotic events were confirmed based on clinical condition and imaging findings, and thrombotic risks were analyzed using five survival models with the recurrent event method. RESULTS: Ninety-six patients were enrolled with a median follow-up of 6.91 years. Of these, 15 patients experienced 17 arterial thrombotic events in total. Patients with JAK2 mutation and IDH1 mutation had the highest frequency of thrombotic events with somatic driver mutations (17.3%) and epigenetic regulator mutations (100%). The 10-year thrombosis-free survival rate was 81.3% (95% confidence interval: 72.0-91.8%). IDH1 mutation was a significant factor for thrombotic risk in the multivariate analysis for all models. The Prentice, William, and Peterson (PWP) gap-time model was the most appropriate prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: The PWP gap-time model was a good predictive model for thrombotic risk in patients with ET. IDH1 mutation was significant risk factors for thrombosis; however, further studies with a larger sample size should confirm this and provide more insight.

Thromboembolic events, major bleeding and mortality in essential thrombocythaemia and polycythaemia vera-A matched nationwide population-based study.

Thromboembolic events and bleeding are known complications in essential thrombocythaemia (ET) and polycythaemia vera (PV). Using multiple Swedish health care registers, we assessed the rate of arterial and venous events, major bleeding, all-cause stroke and all-cause mortality in ET and PV compared to matched controls. For each patient with ET (n = 3141) and PV (n = 2604), five matched controls were randomly selected. In total, 327 and 405 arterial or venous events were seen in the group of ET and PV patients respectively. Compared to corresponding controls, the rate of venous thromboembolism, major bleeding and all-cause mortality per 100 treatment years was significantly increased among both ET (0.63, 0.79 and 3.70) and PV patients (0.94, 1.20 and 4.80). The PV patients also displayed a significantly higher rate of arterial events and all-cause stroke compared to controls. When dividing the cohort into age groups, we found a significantly higher rate of arterial and venous events in all age groups of PV patients, and the rate of all-cause mortality was significantly higher in both ET and PV patients in all ages above the age of 50. This study confirms that PV and ET are diseases truly marked by thromboembolic complications and bleeding.

The risk of thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia is associated with the type of CALR mutation: A multicentre collaborative study.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with essential thrombocythemia (ET), after the JAK2V617F driver mutation, mutations in CALR are common (classified as type 1, 52-bp deletion or type 2, 5-bp insertion). CALR mutations have generally been associated with a lower risk of thrombosis. This study aimed to confirm the impact of CALR mutation type on thrombotic risk. METHODS: We retrospectively investigated 983 ET patients diagnosed in Spanish and Polish hospitals. RESULTS: With 7.5 years of median follow-up from diagnosis, 155 patients (15.8%) had one or more thrombotic event. The 5-year thrombosis-free survival (TFS) rate was 83.8%, 91.6% and 93.9% for the JAK2V617F, CALR-type 1 and CALR-type 2 groups, respectively (P = .002). Comparing CALR-type 1 and CALR-type 2 groups, TFS for venous thrombosis was lower in CALR-type 1 (P = .046), with no difference in TFS for arterial thrombosis observed. The cumulative incidence of thrombosis was significantly different comparing JAK2V617F vs CALR-type 2 groups but not JAK2V617F vs CALR-type 1 groups. Moreover, CALR-type 2 mutation was a statistically significant protective factor for thrombosis with respect to JAK2V617F in multivariate logistic regression (OR: 0.45, P = .04) adjusted by age. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that CALR mutation type has prognostic value for the stratification of thrombotic risk in ET patients.

Polycythemia vera and essential thrombocythemia: 2021 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification and management.

DISEASE OVERVIEW: Polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) are myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) respectively characterized by clonal erythrocytosis and thrombocytosis; other disease features include leukocytosis, splenomegaly, thrombosis, bleeding, microcirculatory symptoms, pruritus and risk of leukemic or fibrotic transformation. DIAGNOSIS: Bone marrow morphology remains the cornerstone of diagnosis. In addition, the presence of JAK2 mutation is expected in PV while approximately 90% of patients with ET express mutually exclusive JAK2, CALR or MPL mutations (so called driver mutations). In ET, it is most important to exclude the possibility of prefibrotic myelofibrosis. SURVIVAL: Median survivals are approximately 15 years for PV and 18 years for ET; the corresponding values for patients age 40 or younger were 37 and 35 years. Certain mutations (mostly spliceosome) and abnormal karyotype might compromise survival in PV and ET. Life-expectancy in ET is inferior to the control population. Driver mutations have not been shown to affect survival in ET but risk of thrombosis is higher in JAK2 mutated cases. Leukemic transformation rates at 10 years are estimated at <1% for ET and 3% for PV. THROMBOSIS RISK: In PV, two risk categories are considered: high (age > 60 years or thrombosis history present) and low (absence of both risk factors). In ET, four risk categories are considered: very low (age ≤ 60 years, no thrombosis history, JAK2 wild-type), low (same as very low but JAK2 mutation present), intermediate (age > 60 years, no thrombosis history, JAK2 wild-type) and high (thrombosis history present or age > 60 years with JAK2 mutation). RISK-ADAPTED THERAPY: The main goal of therapy in both PV and ET is to prevent thrombohemorrhagic complications. All patients with PV require phlebotomy to keep hematocrit below 45% and once-daily or twice-daily aspirin (81 mg), in the absence of contraindications. Very low risk ET might not require therapy while aspirin therapy is advised for low risk disease. Cytoreductive therapy is recommended for high-risk ET and PV, but it is not mandatory for intermediate-risk ET. First-line drug of choice for cytoreductive therapy, in both ET and PV, is hydroxyurea and second-line drugs of choice are interferon-α and busulfan. We do not recommend treatment with ruxolutinib in PV, unless in the presence of severe and protracted pruritus or marked splenomegaly that is not responding to the aforementioned drugs. NEW TREATMENT DIRECTIONS: Controlled studies are needed to confirm the clinical outcome value of twice-daily vs once-daily aspirin dosing and the therapeutic role of pegylated interferons and direct oral anticoagulants.

Anagrelide influences thrombotic risk, and prolongs progression-free and overall survival in essential thrombocythaemia vs hydroxyurea plus aspirin.

OBJECTIVE: We report an extension study of patients with essential thrombocythaemia (ET) in the Hungarian Myeloproliferative Neoplasm (HUMYPRON) Registry, which demonstrated that over 6 years anagrelide significantly decreased the number of patients experiencing minor arterial and minor venous thrombotic events (TEs) vs hydroxyurea+aspirin. METHODS: Data on patients with ET were collected through completion of a questionnaire developed according to 2008 WHO diagnostic criteria and with regard to Landolfi, Tefferi and IPSET criteria for thrombotic risk. Data were entered into the registry from 14 haematological centres. TEs, secondary malignancies, disease progression and survival were compared between patients with ET treated with anagrelide (n = 116) and with hydroxyurea+aspirin (n = 121). RESULTS: Patients were followed for (median) 10 years. A between-group difference in the number of patients with TEs was observed (25.9% anagrelide vs 38.0% hydroxyurea+aspirin; P = .052). Minor arterial events were more frequently reported in the hydroxyurea+aspirin group (P < .001); there were marginally more reports of major arterial events in the anagrelide group (P = .049). TE prior to diagnosis was found to significantly influence TE incidence (P > .001). Progression-free survival (P = .004) and survival (P = .001) were significantly increased for the anagrelide group vs hydroxyurea+aspirin. CONCLUSIONS: Anagrelide reduced TEs, and increased progression-free and overall survival vs hydroxyurea+aspirin over (median) 10 years.

Thrombosis among 1537 patients with JAK2V617F -mutated myeloproliferative neoplasms: Risk factors and development of a predictive model.

To explore the risk factors of thrombosis in patients with JAK2V617F -mutated myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs), a cohort of 1537 Chinese patients with JAK2V617F -mutated MPN was retrospectively analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox analysis were used to study the risk factors of thrombosis in patients with JAK2V617F -mutated MPN. Among the 1537 MPN patients, 931, 468, and 138 had polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF), respectively. The median follow-up time was 7 years (range 1-47), and 12.8% of patients (197/1537) died during this period. A total of 16.8% (259/1399) of PV and ET patients had secondary myelofibrosis, and 2.5% (38/1537) of patients developed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Thrombotic events occurred in 43.9% (675/1537) of patients, among which 91.4% (617/675) were arterial thrombosis and 16.6% (112/675) were venous thrombosis. The number of thrombotic events in PV, ET, and PMF patients was 439 (47.2%), 197 (42.1%) and 39 (28.2%), respectively. The multivariate analysis indicated that age ≥60 years old, HCT ≥48%, at least one cardiovascular risk factor, a history of thrombosis, and JAK2V617F allele burden (V617F%) ≥50% are risk factors for thrombosis in JAK2V617F -mutated MPN. According to the results of the multivariate analysis, a risk model of thrombosis was established and comprised low-risk (0 points), intermediate-risk (1 points) and high-risk (≥2 points) groups, among which the incidence of thrombosis was 9.1%, 33.7% and 72.9%. For elderly patients with JAK2V617F -mutated MPN and a history of thrombosis, reducing the V617F%, controlling HCT and preventing cardiovascular risk factors are necessary measures to prevent thrombosis.

Highly reduced survival in essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera patients with vascular complications during follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the relative importance of risk factors, treatments, and blood counts for the occurrence of vascular complications and their impact on life expectancy in essential thrombocythemia (ET) and polycythemia vera (PV). METHODS: Nested case-control study within the Swedish MPN registry. From a cohort of 922 ET patients and 763 PV patients, 71 ET and 81 PV cases with vascular complications were compared with matched controls. RESULTS: Incidence of vascular complications was 2.0 and 3.4 events per 100 patient-years in ET and PV, respectively. At diagnosis, no significant risk factor differences were observed between cases and controls in neither of the diseases. At the time of vascular event, ET complication cases did not differ significantly from controls but in PV, cases had significantly higher WBCs and were to a lesser extent treated with anti-thrombotic and cytoreductive therapy. Life expectancy was significantly decreased in both ET and PV cases compared with controls. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of vascular complications is high in both ET and PV, and these complications have a considerable impact on life expectancy. The protective effect of anti-thrombotic and cytoreductive therapy for vascular complications in PV underscores the importance of avoiding undertreatment.

Comparison between thrombotic risk scores in essential thrombocythemia and survival implications.

The conventional thrombotic risk stratification in essential thrombocythemia (ET) distinguishes patients in two risk groups based on previous thrombosis and age (< or >60). The IPSET-thrombosis takes into account four risk factors: age greater than 60 years and the presence of CV risk factors, thrombosis history and JAK2 V617F presence. The revised IPSET-thrombosis uses three adverse variables to delineate four risk categories: age greater than 60, thrombosis history, and JAK2 V617F presence. We compared different risk models in the estimation of thrombotic risk in 191 patients with ET and the role of specific driver mutations affecting overall survival, according to thrombotic risk. We also evaluated the mutational status of patients showing history of thrombosis or cardiovascular events versus patients who did not. Finally, we verified whether the thrombotic risk had a significant impact on survival in our ET patients. The data analysis has been performed through the conventional statistics and overall survival estimated by using the Kaplan-Meyer method. Interestingly, either using the traditional system for thrombotic risk or the IPSET-t prognostic score or the current stratification for the thrombotic risk, high-risk patients are always highly represented. This evidence is of note, being the high-risk category indicated for cytoreduction, affecting quality of life, despite the good overall prognosis of patients with ET diagnosis in general. The analysis of overall survival in our patients, according to different models for thrombotic risk, highlighted the poor prognosis of high-risk patients compared with those with a lower thrombotic risk, in particular when using traditional stratification and current stratification. In conclusion, the occurrence of thrombotic or cardiovascular events represents one of the most severe complications at diagnosis or during follow-up of ET despite current recommendations, having a significant impact on morbidity and survival.

Comparison of Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System and MYelofibrosis SECondary to PV and ET Prognostic Model for Prediction of Outcome in Polycythemia Vera and Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation.

We aimed to validate the MYelofibrosis SECondary to PV and ET prognostic model (MYSEC-PM) in 159 patients with myelofibrosis secondary to polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation registry undergoing transplantation from matched siblings or unrelated donors. Furthermore, we aimed to test its prognostic performance in comparison with the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS). Score performance was analyzed using the concordance index (C): the probability that a patient who experienced an event had a higher risk score than a patient who did not (C > .5 suggesting predictive ability). Median follow-up of the total cohort was 41 months (range, 34 to 54), 45 months in post-PV and 38 months in post-ET myelofibrosis. Survival at 1, 2, and 4 years was 70% (95% CI, 63% to 77%), 61% (95% CI, 53% to 69%), and 52% (95% CI, 43% to 61%) for the total cohort; 70% (95% CI, 59% to 80%), 61% (95% CI, 49% to 73%), and 51% (95% CI, 38% to 64%) for post-PV; and 71% (95% CI, 61% to 81%), 61% (95% CI, 50% to 72%), and 54% (95% CI, 42% to 66%) for post-ET myelofibrosis (P = .78). Overall, the DIPSS was not significantly predictive of outcome (P = .28). With respect to the MYSEC-PM, overall survival at 4 years was 69% for the low-risk, 55% for the intermediate 1-risk, 47% for the intermediate 2-risk, and 22% (0% to 45%) for the high-risk groups. The prognostic model was predictive of survival overall (P = .05), whereas groups with intermediate 2 and high risk showed no significant difference (P = .44). Assessment of prognostic utility yielded a C-index of .575 (95% CI, .502 to .648) for the DIPSS, whereas assessment of the MYSEC-PM resulted in a C-statistics of .636 (95% CI, .563 to .708), indicating improvement in prediction of post-transplant survival using the new MYSEC-PM. In addition, transplantations from an unrelated donor in comparison with an HLA-identical sibling showed worse outcome (P = .04), and transplant recipients seropositive for cytomegalovirus in comparison with seronegative recipients (P = .01) showed worse survival. In conclusion, incorporating transplant-specific and clinical and mutational information together with the MYSEC-PM may enhance risk stratification.

Impact of Hydroxyurea on Survival and Risk of Thrombosis Among Older Patients With Essential Thrombocythemia.

ABSTRACTBackground: Current guidelines recommend hydroxyurea (HU) as frontline therapy for patients with high-risk essential thrombocythemia (ET) to prevent thrombosis. However, little is known about the impact of HU on thrombosis or survival among these patients in the real-world setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of older adults (aged ≥66 years) diagnosed with ET from 2007 through 2013 using the linked SEER-Medicare database. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the effect of HU on overall survival, and multivariable competing risk models were used to assess the effect of HU on the occurrence of thrombotic events. RESULTS: Of 1,010 patients, 745 (73.8%) received HU. Treatment with HU was associated with a significantly lower risk of death (hazard ratio [HR], 0.52; 95% CI, 0.43-0.64; P<.01). Every 10% increase in HU proportion of days covered was associated with a 12% decreased risk of death (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.91; P<.01). Compared with nonusers, HU users also had a significantly lower risk of thrombotic events (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.41-0.64; P<.01). CONCLUSIONS: Although underused in our study population, HU was associated with a reduced incidence of thrombotic events and improved overall survival in older patients with ET.

3023 Mayo Clinic Patients With Myeloproliferative Neoplasms: Risk-Stratified Comparison of Survival and Outcomes Data Among Disease Subgroups.

OBJECTIVE: To document the Mayo Clinic decades-long experience with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) and provide mature risk-stratified survival data and disease complication estimates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All Mayo Clinic patients with World Health Organization-defined MPNs constituted the core study group and included those with polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). RESULTS: A total of 3023 consecutive patients (median age, 62 years; range, 18-96 years) were considered: 665 PV, 1076 ET, and 1282 PMF. From October 27, 1967, through December 29, 2017, 1631 deaths (54%), 183 leukemic transformations (6%), 244 fibrotic progressions (14%), and 516 thrombotic events (17%) were recorded. Median overall survival (OS) was 18 years for ET, 15 years for PV, and 4.4 years for PMF (P<.05 for all intergroup comparisons). Inferior survival was documented in patients with ET diagnosed more recently (post-1990) (P<.001), whereas survival data were time independent in PV and PMF. After conventional risk stratification, OS in low-risk ET and low-risk PV were superimposed (P=.89) but each differed significantly from that of age- and sex-matched controls (P<.001). Leukemia-free survival was similar for ET and PV (P=.22) and significantly worse with PMF (P<.001). Compared with ET, PV was associated with higher risk of fibrotic progression (P<.001). Thrombosis risk after diagnosis was highest in PV and lowest in PMF (P=.002 for PV vs ET; P=.56 for ET vs PMF; and P=.001 for PV vs PMF). CONCLUSION: This study provides the most mature survival and outcomes data in MPNs and highlights MPN subgroup risk categorization as key in appraising disease natural history. The OS was only marginally better in ET compared with PV, and PV displayed a higher risk of thrombosis and fibrotic progression.