Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves.

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patients and deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; Taking the European Union (EU) as an example case, all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible. Strategies that maintain low case numbers, instead of high ones, reduce infections and deaths by factors of eleven and five, respectively. In general, policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it considerably reduces mortality and morbidity and offers better preparedness against emerging escape or more contagious virus variants while still allowing for higher contact numbers (freedom) with progressing vaccinations.

Evidence of disorientation towards immunization on online social media after contrasting political communication on vaccines. Results from an analysis of Twitter data in Italy.

BACKGROUND: In Italy, in recent years, vaccination coverage for key immunizations as MMR has been declining to worryingly low levels, with large measles outbreaks. As a response in 2017, the Italian government expanded the number of mandatory immunizations introducing penalties to unvaccinated children's families. During the 2018 general elections campaign, immunization policy entered the political debate with the government in-charge blaming oppositions for fuelling vaccine scepticism. A new government (formerly in the opposition) established in 2018 temporarily relaxed penalties and announced the introduction of forms of flexibility. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: First, we supplied a definition of disorientation, as the "lack of well-established and resilient opinions among individuals, therefore causing them to change their positions as a consequence of sufficient external perturbations". Second, procedures for testing for the presence of both short and longer-term collective disorientation in Twitter signals were proposed. Third, a sentiment analysis on tweets posted in Italian during 2018 on immunization topics, and related polarity evaluations, were used to investigate whether the contrasting announcements at the highest political level might have originated disorientation amongst the Italian public. RESULTS: Vaccine-relevant tweeters' interactions peaked in response to main political events. Out of retained tweets, 70.0% resulted favourable to vaccination, 16.4% unfavourable, and 13.6% undecided, respectively. The smoothed time series of polarity proportions exhibit frequent large changes in the favourable proportion, superimposed to a clear up-and-down trend synchronized with the switch between governments in Spring 2018, suggesting evidence of disorientation among the public. CONCLUSIONS: The reported evidence of disorientation for opinions expressed in online social media shows that critical health topics, such as vaccination, should never be used to achieve political consensus. This is worsened by the lack of a strong Italian institutional presence on Twitter, calling for efforts to contrast misinformation and the ensuing spread of hesitancy. It remains to be seen how this disorientation will impact future parents' vaccination decisions.

COVID-19 optimal vaccination policies: A modeling study on efficacy, natural and vaccine-induced immunity responses.

About a year into the pandemic, COVID-19 accumulates more than two million deaths worldwide. Despite non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distance, mask-wearing, and restrictive lockdown, the daily confirmed cases remain growing. Vaccine developments from Pfizer, Moderna, and Gamaleya Institute reach more than 90% efficacy and sustain the vaccination campaigns in multiple countries. However, natural and vaccine-induced immunity responses remain poorly understood. There are great expectations, but the new SARS-CoV-2 variants demand to inquire if the vaccines will be highly protective or induce permanent immunity. Further, in the first quarter of 2021, vaccine supply is scarce. Consequently, some countries that are applying the Pfizer vaccine will delay its second required dose. Likewise, logistic supply, economic and political implications impose a set of grand challenges to develop vaccination policies. Therefore, health decision-makers require tools to evaluate hypothetical scenarios and evaluate admissible responses. Following some of the WHO-SAGE recommendations, we formulate an optimal control problem with mixed constraints to describe vaccination schedules. Our solution identifies vaccination policies that minimize the burden of COVID-19 quantified by the number of disability-adjusted years of life lost. These optimal policies ensure the vaccination coverage of a prescribed population fraction in a given time horizon and preserve hospitalization occupancy below a risk level. We explore "via simulation" plausible scenarios regarding efficacy, coverage, vaccine-induced, and natural immunity. Our simulations suggest that response regarding vaccine-induced immunity and reinfection periods would play a dominant role in mitigating COVID-19.

[No scientific lower threshold for compulsory vaccination]. / Geen wetenschappelijke ondergrens voor verplicht vaccineren.

The national vaccination rate in young children in the Netherlands has decreased in recent years. This has led to social and political discussions, for instance about compulsory vaccination for children in child-care. The national commission on child-care and vaccination has advised that vaccination should be made compulsory when the rate of vaccination has declined to a pre-determined lower threshold, to be determined by the government. A frequently quoted lower threshold is 95%. The idea behind this is the concept of a critical vaccination rate, a threshold needed for elimination of an infection in a large, well-mixed population. In this article we argue why the critical vaccination rate does not offer a scientific basis for a lower threshold to the national vaccination rate.

Logistics of Implementing a Large-scale Typhoid Vaccine Trial in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Typhoid fever is estimated to affect over 20 million people per year worldwide, with infants, children, and adolescents in south-central and southeast Asia experiencing the greatest burden of disease. The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC) aims to support the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines into Gavi-eligible countries in an effort to reduce morbidity and mortality from typhoid. TyVAC-Nepal is a large-scale, participant- and observer-blind, individually randomized, controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of a newly developed typhoid conjugate vaccine in an urban setting in Nepal. In order to effectively deliver the trial, a number of key elements required meticulous planning. Public engagement strategies were considered early, and involved the implementation of a tiered approach. Approximately 300 staff were employed and trained in order to achieve the mass vaccination of 20 000 children aged 9 months to ≤16 years old over a 4-month period. There were 19 vaccination clinics established across the Lalitpur metropolitan city in the Kathmandu valley. Participants will be followed for 2 years post-vaccination to measure the rate reduction of blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever in the vaccination arm as compared to the control arm. The experience of conducting this large-scale vaccine trial suggests that comprehensive planning, continuous monitoring, and an ability to adapt plans in response to feedback are key.

Experience implementing a university-based mass immunization program in response to a meningococcal B outbreak.

Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B (MenB) has caused several recent outbreaks of meningococcal disease on US college campuses. In January 2015, a case of MenB was reported at a university in Oregon, culminating in an outbreak with a total of 7 cases (including 1 fatality) identified over a 5-month period. In response to the outbreak, the university organized a mass immunization campaign with 4 "opt-in" immunization clinics. The preparation, challenges, and resources required for organization and implementation of a mass immunization program in response to an outbreak at a large public university are discussed herein. Based on the logistical challenges as well as resource expenditures associated with planning and executing a mass immunization effort, this experience illustrates that proactive, routine immunization of incoming students is the best strategy for MenB outbreak prevention.

Challenges in conducting a community-based influenza vaccine trial in a rural community in northern India.

Evidence on influenza vaccine effectiveness from low and middle countries (LMICs) is limited due to limited institutional capacities; lack of adequate resources; and lack of interest by ministries of health for influenza vaccine introduction. There are concerns that the highest ethical standards will be compromised during trials in LMICs leading to mistrust of clinical trials. These factors pose regulatory and operational challenges to researchers in these countries. We conducted a community-based vaccine trial to assess the efficacy of live attenuated influenza vaccine and inactivated influenza vaccine in rural north India. Key regulatory challenges included obtaining regulatory approvals, reporting of adverse events, and compensating subjects for trial-related injuries; all of which were required to be completed in a timely fashion. Key operational challenges included obtaining audio-visual consent; maintaining a low attrition rate; and administering vaccines during a narrow time period before the influenza season, and under extreme heat. We overcame these challenges through advanced planning, and sustaining community engagement. We adapted the trial procedures to cope with field conditions by conducting mock vaccine camps; and planned for early morning vaccination to mitigate threats to the cold chain. These lessons may help investigators to confront similar challenges in other LMICs.

Why France is making eight new vaccines mandatory.

France is one of the countries with the highest prevalence of vaccine hesitancy in the world. In an attempt to raise vaccination coverages, the French government made on January 1, 2018 eight more vaccines mandatory in addition to the three required until then. The process that led to this policy choice is of particular interest. We describe how vaccines became contentious in France and how French authorities came to view mandatory vaccination as the solution to the rise in vaccine hesitancy. In a bold move, French public health authorities turned to a new type of institutional device grounded in the ideal of democracy and public participation to political decision-making: "a citizen consultation". This consultation anchored the idea that legal coercion could be the solution to France's crisis with vaccines. Time will tell whether the French extension of mandatory vaccination will reduce tensions around vaccines.