Can we predict radiation-induced changes in pulmonary function based on the sum of predicted regional dysfunction?

PURPOSE: To determine whether changes in whole-lung pulmonary function test (PFT) values are related to the sum of predicted radiation therapy (RT)-induced changes in regional lung perfusion. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 1991 and 1998, 96 patients (61% with lung cancer) who were receiving incidental partial lung irradiation were studied prospectively. The patients were assessed with pre- and post-RT PFTs (forced expiratory volume in one second [FEV1] and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide [DLCO]) for at least a 6-month follow-up period, and patients were excluded if it was determined that intrathoracic recurrence had an impact on lung function. The maximal declines in PFT values were noted. A dose-response model based on RT-induced reduction in regional perfusion (function) was used to predict regional dysfunction. The predicted decline in pulmonary function was calculated as the weighted sum of the predicted regional injuries: equation [see text] where Vd is the volume of lung irradiated to dose d, and Rd is the reduction in regional perfusion anticipated at dose d. RESULTS: The relationship between the predicted and measured reduction in PFT values was significant for uncorrected DLCO (P = .005) and borderline significant for DLCO (P = .06) and FEV1 (P = .08). However, the correlation coefficients were small (range,.18 to.30). In patients with lung cancer, the correlation coefficients improved as the number of follow-up evaluations increased (range,.43 to.60), especially when patients with hypoperfusion in the lung adjacent to a central mediastinal/hilar thoracic mass were excluded (range,.59 to.91). CONCLUSION: The sum of predicted RT-induced changes in regional perfusion is related to RT-induced changes in pulmonary function. In many patients, however, the percentage of variation explained is small, which renders accurate predictions difficult.