[The issue of feasibility of a general theory of aging. III. The theory and practice of aging].

ABSTRACT

An analysis of demographic data about human mortality and lifespan carried out according to the complete Gompertz-Makeham model mu = C+ lambda x e(gamma x t) shows that, over the last 100 years, lifespan expectation increased almost exclusively because the Makeham parameter C decreased. The often reported apparent changes in the demographic aging rate gamma and in the initial vitality, which is proportional to -Inlambda, are likely to be largely an artifact of the attempts to decompose mortality data that are related to conditions that significantly change within the time scale comparable with human lifespan, whereas the correct decomposition is possible only for strictly homogenous populations under strictly stationary conditions. The comparison of this situation with animal experiments suggesting possible interferences that may decrease aging rate and/or increase lifespan reveals that the main factors of reduced mortality and increased lifespan in humans are limited to one's personal commitment to follow longstanding traditional recommendation for healthy life, which may help to bring one's lifespan about 10 ten years closer to the reliably recorded maximum of 122 years. The bottleneck for the realization of this reserve resides not in science but rather in public and individual mentality.