Design and powering of cystic fibrosis clinical trials using rate of FEV(1) decline as an efficacy endpoint.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Rate of lung function decline (RLFD) (as FEV(1) percent predicted/yr) is a robust measure of CF therapeutic efficacy rarely used as a study endpoint, in part due to uncertainty of sample size requirements. METHODS: Sample size requirements for 11 randomizations to detect RLFD treatment effects from 20% to 80% were assessed in Epidemiologic Study of CF (ESCF) patients. Effects of measuring FEV(1) 1-4 times per year in studies of 1- to 4-year durations were assessed in 399 patients age ≥ 6 years with FEV(1) ≥ 70%. Impacts of inclusion/exclusion based on risk factors in 2369 ESCF patients were assessed over 1.5 years using semi-annual FEV(1) measures. RESULTS: Increasing study duration and exclusion of lower risk patients (e.g., no P. aeruginosa infection) both substantially reduced requirements. CONCLUSIONS: CF RLFD studies of 1.5 years in duration appear feasible provided that investigators account for the beneficial effects of subject inclusion/exclusion based on risk factors in power estimates.