Is complex gastroschisis predictable by prenatal ultrasound?

OBJECTIVE: To establish a correlation between prenatal ultrasound findings and postnatal outcome in neonates with gastroschisis (GS). DESIGN: Retrospective case-control study. SETTING: Prenatal ultrasound reports, labour and neonatal intensive care unit notes, and paediatric surgical clinic records were reviewed. POPULATION: Neonates with an antenatal diagnosis of isolated GS. METHODS: The neonates were divided into two groups: one with associated bowel complications including intestinal atresia, perforation, necrosis or volvulus ('complex' GS), and the second without bowel complication ('simple' GS). Prenatal ultrasound markers: small-for-gestational-age, intra-abdominal and extra-abdominal bowel dilatation (>6 mm), thickened intestinal wall and stomach dilatation were correlated with outcome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fetal or neonatal death in complex versus simple GS. Time on parenteral nutrition and duration of hospital stay were also noted. RESULTS: In all, 105 cases were eligible for analysis. Survival rate was 101/105 (96.2%). None of the ultrasound markers was predictive of fetal or neonatal death. Fourteen of 103 live-born babies (14.6%) had complex GS, which was associated with longer time on parenteral nutrition [8.0 (51.5-390) versus 33.5 (25.3-53.3) days, P<0.001] and longer duration of hospital stay [85.3 (55.5-210) versus 41.5 (33.0-64.8) days, P<0.001]. Infants with complex GS were more likely to require bowel resection and stoma placement (P<0.05). Intra-abdominal bowel dilatation was the only predictive ultrasound marker of complex GS (odds ratio 4.13, 95% CI 1.32-12.90; P=0.018). Receiver operating characteristic curve for observed/expected bowel diameter yielded 6 as the cutoff value for predicting complex GS (odds ratio 7.9, 95% CI 2.3-27.3; P=0.001) with 54% and 88% for sensibility and specificity, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Intra-abdominal bowel dilatation is the only ultrasound marker predictive of complex GS but it is a strong marker.