Modeling insights into Haemophilus influenzae type b disease, transmission, and vaccine programs.
Emerg Infect Dis
; 18(1): 13-20, 2012 Jan.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-22257582
In response to the 2007-2009 Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine shortage in the United States, we developed a flexible model of Hib transmission and disease for optimizing Hib vaccine programs in diverse populations and situations. The model classifies population members by age, colonization/disease status, and antibody levels, with movement across categories defined by differential equations. We implemented the model for the United States as a whole, England and Wales, and the Alaska Native population. This model accurately simulated Hib incidence in all 3 populations, including the increased incidence in England/Wales beginning in 1999 and the change in Hib incidence in Alaska Natives after switching Hib vaccines in 1996. The model suggests that a vaccine shortage requiring deferral of the booster dose could last 3 years in the United States before loss of herd immunity would result in increasing rates of invasive Hib disease in children <5 years of age.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Vacinas Anti-Haemophilus
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Haemophilus influenzae tipo b
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Infecções por Haemophilus
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Modelos Biológicos
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2012
Tipo de documento:
Article