[Risk factors for falls and survival after falling in elderly people in a community].

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the risk factors associated with falls and to examine the effects of falls on survival of elderly people in a community. METHODS: A questionnaire survey was conducted in 16,462 urban elderly dwellers aged 65 years or more in City A in September 2001. A follow-up survey was carried out in September 2004. We analyzed the data of 8,285 subjects who answered both questionnaires and had not relocated by August 2007. Baseline assessments of health and functioning were carried out in 2001. Falls experienced during the 1-year period before September 2004 were recorded, and the deaths were recorded until August 2007. Statistical analysis was performed using a logistic regression model and Cox's proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: A total of 6,420 subjects (3,127 men and 3,293 women) who had provided complete answers about their falls were included in the analyses. Of these, 27.8% of women and 16.4% of men had experienced falls, while 6.2% of women and 2.1% of men had experienced falls that caused fractures. We found that the likelihood of fall, with or without fracture development, was greater in women than in men (P < 0.001). The rate of falls tended to increase with age in both women and men. Risk factors associated with falls, in addition to age and gender, were pain (odds ratio [OR], 1.75), lack of instrumental activities of daily living (IADL; OR, 1.45), poor self-rated health status (OR, 1.42), and presence of disease (OR, 1.35). Risk factors associated with falls that caused fracture were pain (OR, 1.85) and lack of IADL (OR, 1.61). Cox's proportional hazards analysis showed a significant increase in mortality in both men and women who had experienced falls than in those who had not (hazard ratio [HR], 1.94, 1.43). CONCLUSION: Aging, pain and disease, lack of IADL, and poor self-rated health status were all significant risk factors for falls in elderly people, and a fall was related to subsequent mortality.