Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care.

[Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care.