The Impact of a City-Level Minimum-Wage Policy on Supermarket Food Prices in Seattle-King County.

Background: Many states and localities throughout the U.S. have adopted higher minimum wages. Higher labor costs among low-wage food system workers could result in higher food prices. Methods: Using a market basket of 106 foods, food prices were collected at affected chain supermarket stores in Seattle and same-chain unaffected stores in King County (n = 12 total, six per location). Prices were collected at 1 month pre- (March 2015) and 1-month post-policy enactment (May 2015), then again 1-year post-policy enactment (May 2016). Unpaired t-tests were used to detect price differences by location at fixed time while paired t-tests were used to detect price difference across time with fixed store chain. A multi-level, linear differences-in-differences model, was used to detect the changes in the average market basket item food prices over time across regions, overall and by food group. Results: There were no significant differences in overall market basket or item-level costs at one-month (-$0.01, SE = 0.05, p = 0.884) or one-year post-policy enactment (-$0.02, SE = 0.08, p = 0.772). No significant increases were observed by food group. Conclusions: There is no evidence of change in supermarket food prices by market basket or increase in prices by food group in response to the implementation of Seattle's minimum wage ordinance.