Integrating Growth Variability of the Ilium, Fifth Lumbar Vertebra, and Clavicle with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Models for Subadult Age Estimation.
J Forensic Sci
; 64(1): 34-51, 2019 Jan.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29852519
ABSTRACT
Subadult age estimation should rely on sampling and statistical protocols capturing development variability for more accurate age estimates. In this perspective, measurements were taken on the fifth lumbar vertebrae and/or clavicles of 534 French males and females aged 0-19 years and the ilia of 244 males and females aged 0-12 years. These variables were fitted in nonparametric multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models with 95% prediction intervals (PIs) of age. The models were tested on two independent samples from Marseille and the Luis Lopes reference collection from Lisbon. Models using ilium width and module, maximum clavicle length, and lateral vertebral body heights were more than 92% accurate. Precision was lower for postpubertal individuals. Integrating punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and the variables and dynamic prediction intervals incorporated the normal increase in interindividual growth variability (heteroscedasticity of variance) with age for more biologically accurate predictions.
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Determinação da Idade pelo Esqueleto
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Modelos Estatísticos
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Clavícula
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Ílio
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Vértebras Lombares
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article