Broad, Multi-Year Sampling Effort Highlights Complex Dynamics of the Tick-Borne Pathogen Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Anaplasmatacae).

Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Anaplasmatacae), an understudied bacterial pathogen emerging in the eastern United States, is increasing throughout the range of its vector, the lone star tick [Amblyomma americanum, L. (Acari: Ixodidae)]. To mitigate human disease risk, we must understand what factors drive E. chaffeensis prevalence. Here, we report patterns of E. chaffeensis prevalence in southeastern Virginia across 4 yr and ask how seasonal weather patterns affect variation in rates of E. chaffeensis occurrence. We collected A. americanum nymphs at 130 plots across southeastern Virginia in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2016, and used polymerase chain reaction and gel electrophoresis to test for the presence of E. chaffeensis DNA. Prevalence estimates varied among years, ranging from 0.9% to 3.7%, and persistence of E. chaffeensis occurrence varied across space, with some sites never testing positive, and one site testing positive every year. Using generalized linear mixed-effects models, we related E. chaffeensis occurrence to temperature, humidity, vapor-pressure deficit, and precipitation during seasons up to 21 mo prior to sampling. Surprisingly, all support was lent to a positive effect of temperature during the previous fall and winter (i.e., prior to the nymphs' hatching), which we hypothesize to influence reservoir host population dynamics through changes to mortality or natality. Although further work is necessary to truly elucidate the mechanisms at play, our study shows E. chaffeensis distribution to be very dynamic across multiple dimensions, demanding broad concerted monitoring efforts that can consider both space and time.