[Prediction of potential distribution of Carpinus cordata in China under climate change.] / 气候变化下千金榆在我国潜在分布区预测.

ABSTRACT

Climate change seriously affects the geographical distribution of plants. Regional diffe-rences in plant response to climate change will provide important guidance for species introduction and conservation. Based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt model, we used 176 geographic information of Carpinus cordata and 13 climatic variables to reconstruct its current and future niche. The results showed that the model had a high credibility in simulating contemporary potential distribution areas. The AUC values of the test set and the training set of the model were 0.973 and 0.957, respectively. The main core suitable areas were concentrated in Qinling, Changbai Mountain and their adjacent areas, with other sporadic "island" distribution. C. cordata is not distributed in Guizhou, Jiangxi, Yunnan and Fujian, but the model predicted some suitable distribution areas in those provinces. With climate warming in the future, ecologically suitable areas of C. cordata would increase significantly, mainly as "shrinking to high altitude areas", "expanding northward", and "expanding eastward". However, core suitable areas would be slightly reduced, which would be manifested as "shrinking southward", "moderate stability", and "expanding northward". The response of C. cordata distribution to climate warming was obviously regional. Eastern Jiangsu, Anhui, and other places would become ecologically suitable areas for C. cordata because of their unique geographical location and climatic environment. The lower latitudes of the south, the original low-altitude areas might no longer be suitable for survival. The central Qinling region was a transition region from north to south, with strong buffer capacity, and climate warming had little effect on its distribution area. The Changbai Mountain and its adjacent areas at higher latitudes were more suitable for C. cordata.