A multicentre development and validation study of a novel lower gastrointestinal bleeding score-The Birmingham Score.
Int J Colorectal Dis
; 35(2): 285-293, 2020 Feb.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31845024
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) is common and risk stratification scores can guide clinical decision-making. There is no robust risk stratification tool specific for LGIB, with existing tools not routinely adopted. We aimed to develop and validate a risk stratification tool for LGIB.METHODS:
Retrospective review of LGIB admissions to three centres between 2010 and 2018 formed the derivation cohort. Using regressional analysis within a machine learning technique, risk factors for adverse outcomes were identified, forming a simple risk stratification score-The Birmingham Score. Retrospective review of an additional centre, not included in the derivation cohort, was performed to validate the score.RESULTS:
Data from 469 patients were included in the derivation cohort and 180 in the validation cohort. Admission haemoglobin OR 1.07(95% CI 1.06-1.08) and male gender OR 2.29(95% CI 1.40-3.77) predicted adverse outcomes in the derivation cohort AUC 0.86(95% CI 0.82-0.90) which outperformed the Blatchford 0.81(95% CI 0.77-0.85), Rockall 0.60(95% CI 0.55-0.65) and AIM65 0.55(0.50-0.60) scores and in the validation cohort AUC 0.80(95% CI 0.73-0.87) which outperformed the Blatchford 0.77(95% CI 0.70-0.85), Rockall 0.67(95% CI 0.59-0.75) and AIM 65 scores 0.61(95% CI 0.53-0.69). The Birmingham Score also performs well at predicting adverse outcomes from diverticular bleeding AUC 0.87 (95% CI 0.75-0.98). A score of 7 predicts a 94% probability of adverse outcome.CONCLUSION:
The Birmingham Score represents a simple risk stratification score that can be used promptly on patients admitted with LGIB.Palavras-chave
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Regras de Decisão Clínica
/
Hemorragia Gastrointestinal
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article