Early Identification of Trauma-induced Coagulopathy: Development and Validation of a Multivariable Risk Prediction Model.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction tool for trauma-induced coagulopathy (TIC), to support early therapeutic decision-making. BACKGROUND: TIC exacerbates hemorrhage and is associated with higher morbidity and mortality. Early and aggressive treatment of TIC improves outcome. However, injured patients that develop TIC can be difficult to identify, which may compromise effective treatment. METHODS: A Bayesian Network (BN) prediction model was developed using domain knowledge of the causal mechanisms of TIC, and trained using data from 600 patients recruited into the Activation of Coagulation and Inflammation in Trauma (ACIT) study. Performance (discrimination, calibration, and accuracy) was tested using 10-fold cross-validation and externally validated on data from new patients recruited at 3 trauma centers. RESULTS: Rates of TIC in the derivation and validation cohorts were 11.8% and 11.0%, respectively. Patients who developed TIC were significantly more likely to die (54.0% vs 5.5%, P < 0.0001), require a massive blood transfusion (43.5% vs 1.1%, P < 0.0001), or require damage control surgery (55.8% vs 3.4%, P < 0.0001), than those with normal coagulation. In the development dataset, the 14-predictor BN accurately predicted this high-risk patient group: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.93, calibration slope (CS) 0.96, brier score (BS) 0.06, and brier skill score (BSS) 0.40. The model maintained excellent performance in the validation population: AUROC 0.95, CS 1.22, BS 0.05, and BSS 0.46. CONCLUSIONS: A BN (http://www.traumamodels.com) can accurately predict the risk of TIC in an individual patient from standard admission clinical variables. This information may support early, accurate, and efficient activation of hemostatic resuscitation protocols.