On the stability and the progression of gambling problems: longitudinal relations between different problems related to gambling.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In psychiatric diagnosis, different symptoms of gambling problems are usually aggregated into a single indicator of disorder severity, which has resulted in a knowledge gap on the specific roles of the different issues with which some gamblers struggle. This study estimated the association between baseline symptoms of gambling problems and (i) other symptoms, (ii) the overall severity of gambling problems after 12 months, and the estimated stability rates of various gambling problems after (iii) 12 months and (iv) 5 years. Design and Setting Secondary analysis of data derived from the Swedish Longitudinal Gambling Study (SWELOGS), a prospective representative cohort study conducted between 2008 and 2014 in Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 8165 respondents from 16-84 years of age recruited in a stratified random sampling procedure. Among them, 6021 answered the 1-year follow-up survey and 3559 answered the 5-year follow-up survey. MEASUREMENTS: Nine symptoms related to gambling were assessed using the Problem Gambling Severity Index (excessive gambling, tolerance, chasing, loans, insight, health problems, criticism, financial problems, and guilt). FINDINGS: Excessive gambling, tolerance, chasing, loans and guilt significantly increased the risk of a range of other symptoms. Chasing and tolerance also tripled the risk of transitioning to more severe gambling problems (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = [1.5-5.5], P = 0.001 and OR = 2.7, 95% CI = [1.6-4.5], P < 0.001, respectively). Stability rates of the different symptoms ranged between 22% (95% CI = [12-31%]) and 42% (95% CI = [35-48%]) after 1 year and 3% (95% CI = [0-10%]) and 19% (95% CI = [7-30%]) after 5 years with chasing being the most stable problem (42% [95% CI = (35-48%)] after 1 year and 17% [95% CI = (6-28%)] after 5 years). CONCLUSIONS: In psychiatric diagnosis, four symptoms of problem gambling (chasing, tolerance, excessive gambling and guilt) appear to have prognostic validity in assessing gambling-related risk. The symptoms of tolerance and chasing appear to increase the risk of progressing to more severe gambling problems.