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COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions.
Silva, Petrônio C L; Batista, Paulo V C; Lima, Hélder S; Alves, Marcos A; Guimarães, Frederico G; Silva, Rodrigo C P.
Afiliação
  • Silva PCL; Grupo de Pesquisa em Ciência de Dados e Inteligência Computacional - {ci∂ic}, Brazil.
  • Batista PVC; Instituto Federal do Norte de Minas Gerais (IFNMG), Brazil.
  • Lima HS; Machine Intelligence and Data Science (MINDS) Laboratory, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Alves MA; Grupo de Pesquisa em Ciência de Dados e Inteligência Computacional - {ci∂ic}, Brazil.
  • Guimarães FG; Instituto Federal do Norte de Minas Gerais (IFNMG), Brazil.
  • Silva RCP; Instituto Federal do Norte de Minas Gerais (IFNMG), Brazil.
Chaos Solitons Fractals ; 139: 110088, 2020 Oct.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32834624
The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has directly impacted the public health and economy worldwide. To overcome this problem, countries have adopted different policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling the spread of the virus. This paper proposes the COVID-ABS, a new SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) agent-based model that aims to simulate the pandemic dynamics using a society of agents emulating people, business and government. Seven different scenarios of social distancing interventions were analyzed, with varying epidemiological and economic effects: (1) do nothing, (2) lockdown, (3) conditional lockdown, (4) vertical isolation, (5) partial isolation, (6) use of face masks, and (7) use of face masks together with 50% of adhesion to social isolation. In the impossibility of implementing scenarios with lockdown, which present the lowest number of deaths and highest impact on the economy, scenarios combining the use of face masks and partial isolation can be the more realistic for implementation in terms of social cooperation. The COVID-ABS model was implemented in Python programming language, with source code publicly available. The model can be easily extended to other societies by changing the input parameters, as well as allowing the creation of a multitude of other scenarios. Therefore, it is a useful tool to assist politicians and health authorities to plan their actions against the COVID-19 epidemic.
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Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article