Nomogram for predicting the overall survival of the patients with oesophageal signet ring cell carcinoma.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to explore the prognostic factors of oesophageal signet ring cell (SRC) carcinoma and to construct a nomogram for predicting the outcome of SRC carcinoma of oesophagus. METHODS: A total of 968 cases of oesophageal SRC carcinoma were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2016. Cases were divided into training cohort and validation cohort. Univariate and multivariable Cox analyses was performed to select the predictors of overall survival (OS for the nomogram. The performance of nomogram was validated with Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The 1- and 5-year OS in the training cohort were 0.446 and 0.146, respectively, and the 1- and 5-year OS in the validation cohort were 0.459 and 0.138. The independent prognostic factors for establishing the nomogram were marital status, invasion of the surrounding tissue, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, surgery and chemotherapy. The Harrell's c-index value of the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.723 and 0.708. In the calibration curves, the predicted survival probability and the actual survival probability have a considerable consistency. DCA indicated the favourable potential clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram to predict the OS of patients with oesophageal SRC carcinoma was established. The validation of the nomogram fully demonstrates its great performance.