[Predicting zoonotic diseases dynamics using mathematic models].

ABSTRACT

The interspecies transmission of pathogens among multiple hosts is a complex dynamic process, which poses a severe challenge to the reliability of the early warning system of zoonotic infectious diseases. By introducing the theories and methods of infectious disease ecology, this paper reviews and summarizes the study of the interaction among pathogens, hosts and environment through the dynamic mathematical model of environment-host-infectious diseases, and also includes research paradigm for quantifying the effects of environment on epidemic trends, vectors and pathogenic microorganisms. Taking the study of Apodemus-type hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, also known as epidemic hemorrhagic fever, in China as an example, the application of mathematical model of infectious diseases in actual prediction and early warning of epidemic situation is introduced, and new monitoring indexes and early warning methods is further developed.