The use and applicability of machine learning algorithms in predicting the surgical outcome for patients with benign prostatic enlargement. Which model to use?

OBJECTIVES: Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used in medicine, but data on benign prostatic enlargement (BPE) management are lacking. This study aims to test the performance of several machine learning algorithms, in predicting clinical outcomes during BPE surgical management. METHODS: Clinical data were extracted from a prospectively collected database for 153 men with BPE, treated with transurethral resection (monopolar or bipolar) or vaporization of the prostate. Due to small sample size, we applied a method for increasing our dataset, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). The new dataset created with SMOTE has been expanded by 453 synthetic instances, in addition to the original 153. The WEKA Data Mining Software was used for constructing predictive models, while several appropriate statistical measures, like Correlation coefficient (R), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean-Squared Error (RMSE), were calculated with several supervised regression algorithms - techniques (Linear Regression, Multilayer Perceptron, SMOreg, k-Nearest Neighbors, Bagging, M5Rules, M5P - Pruned Model Tree, and Random forest). RESULTS: The baseline characteristics of patients were extracted, with age, prostate volume, method of operation, baseline Qmax and baseline IPSS being used as independent variables. Using the Random Forest algorithm resulted in values of R, MAE, RMSE that indicate the ability of these models to better predict % Qmax increase. The Random Forest model also demonstrated the best results in R, MAE, RMSE for predicting % IPSS reduction. CONCLUSIONS: Machine Learning techniques can be used for making predictions regarding clinical outcomes of surgical BPRE management. Wider-scale validation studies are necessary to strengthen our results in choosing the best model.