The importance of weight stabilization amongst those with overweight or obesity: Results from a large health care system.

ABSTRACT

Data on patterns of weight change among adults with overweight or obesity are minimal. We aimed to examine patterns of weight change and associated hospitalizations in a large health system, and to develop a model to predict 2-year significant weight gain. Data from the Duke University Health System was abstracted from 1/1/13 to 12/31/16 on patients with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 in 2014. A regression model was developed to predict patients that would increase their weight by 10% within 2 years. We estimated the association between weight change category and all-cause hospitalization using Cox proportional hazards models. Of the 37,253 patients in our cohort, 59% had stable weight over 2 years, while 24% gained ≥ 5% weight and 17% lost ≥ 5% weight. Our predictive model had reasonable discriminatory capacity to predict which individuals would gain ≥ 10% weight over 2 years (AUC 0.73). Compared with stable weight, the risk of hospitalization was increased by 37% for individuals with > 10% weight loss [adj. HR (95% CI) 1.37 (1.25,1.5)], by 30% for those with > 10% weight gain [adj. HR (95% CI) 1.3 (1.19,1.42)], by 18% for those with 5-10% weight loss [adj. HR (95% CI) 1.18 (1.09,1.28)], and by 10% for those with 5-10% weight gain [adj. HR (95% CI) 1.1 (1.02,1.19)]. In this examination of a large health system, significant weight gain or loss of > 10% was associated with increased all-cause hospitalization over 2 years compared with stable weight. This analysis adds to the increasing observational evidence that weight stability may be a key health driver.