A practical nomogram based on systemic inflammatory markers for predicting portal vein thrombosis in patients with liver cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Immunothrombosis has recently been used to describe the responses/mechanisms in thrombosis. Systemic inflammatory markers are prognostic markers for a variety of thrombotic conditions; however, their potential value in predicting portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is unknown. This study aimed to establish an easy-to-use nomogram based on systemic inflammatory markers to predict portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in patients with liver cirrhosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 478 patients with cirrhosis between January 2013 and January 2021. Reputed systemic inflammatory markers (systemic immune-inflammation index [SII], neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio [MLR], and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR)) were measured, and the clinical data were recorded. The independent risk factors for PVT were determined using univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and a nomogram to predict the occurrence of PVT was established. The concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curves, and calibration plots were used to evaluate the performance of the model. RESULTS: A total of 239 patients with PVT and 239 patients without PVT were selected. In the univariate analysis, high SII, NLR, PLR, and MLR were significantly associated with PVT. NLR and PLR were independent risk factors for PVT (P < 0.05) by multivariate analysis. The nomogram had good predictive efficiency for PVT in patients with cirrhosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of 0.891 (95% CI 0.862-0.919) and the calibration curves fit as well, indicating that the nomogram had good clinical application value. CONCLUSIONS: PVT in patients with cirrhosis is associated with increased levels of systemic inflammatory markers. We successfully developed a practical nomogram based on NLR and PLR to accurately predict PVT, which is a practical method helping clinicians rapidly and conveniently diagnose and guide the treatment of PVT in patients with cirrhosis.Key MessagesThe present study is the first report on a nomogram based on systemic inflammatory markers in patients with portal vein thrombosis (PVT).The nomogram had good predictive efficiency and a good clinical application value for predicting PVT in patients with cirrhosis.