SEIR model with unreported infected population and dynamic parameters for the spread of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that can be transmitted through human interaction. In this paper, we present a Piecewise Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Unreported-Removed model for infectious diseases and discuss qualitatively and quantitatively. The parameters are explored by mathematical and statistical methods. Numerical simulations of these models are performed on COVID-19 US data and Python is used in the visualization of results. Outbreak factor is generated by piecewise model to explore the future trend of the US pandemic. Several error metrics are given to discuss the accuracy of the models. The main achievement of this paper is to propose the piecewise model and find the relationship between spread of pandemic and mitigation measures to control it by observing the results of numerical simulations. Performance analysis of piecewise model is presented based on COVID-19 data obtained by 'worldmeter'.