Predictors of Long-Term Survival in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma after Pancreatectomy: TP53 and SMAD4 Mutation Scoring in Combination with CA19-9.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) is a fatal cancer for which even unfavorable clinicopathological factors occasionally fail to preclude long-term survival. We sought to establish a scoring system that utilizes measurable pre-intervention factors for predicting survival following surgical resection. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 34 patients who died from short-term recurrences and 32 long-term survivors among 310 consecutively resected patients with PDA. A logistic regression model was used to define factors related to clinical parameters, molecular profiles of 18 pancreatic cancer-associated genes, and aberrant expression of major tumor suppressors. RESULTS: Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) had the best ability to classify patients with short-term recurrence and long-term survivors [odds ratio 21.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.612-96.019], followed by SMAD4 and TP53 mutation scoring (odds ratio 41.322, 95% CI 3.156-541.035). Missense TP53 mutations were strongly associated with the nuclear expression of p53, whereas truncating mutations were associated with the absence of nuclear p53. The former subset was associated with a worse prognosis. The combination of aberrant SMAD4 and mutation types of TP53 exhibited a better resolution for distinguishing patients with short-term recurrences from long-term survivors (compared with the assessment of the number of mutated KRAS, CDKN2A, TP53, and SMAD4 genes). Calibration of mutation scores combined with CA19-9 in a logistic regression model setting demonstrated a practical effect in classifying long survivors and patients with early recurrence (c-statistic = 0.876). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic information, i.e., TP53 mutation types and SMAD4 abnormalities, combined with CA19-9, will be a valuable tool for improving surgical strategies for pancreatic cancer.