[Predictive value of the product of plasma colchicine concentration and poisoning time for the prognosis of colchicine poisoning patients].

Objective: To investigate the predictive value of the product of first plasmacolchicine concentration and poisoning time for the prognosis of colchicine poisoning patients, and to provide a basis for early prognosis assessment. Methods: October 2021, patients with colchicine poisoning admitted in the First Affiliated Hospitol of Wenzhou Medical University from January 2017 to September 2021 were collected, including general information such as patient gender, age, oral colchicine dose, poisoning time, the first laboratory test index andplasma colchicine concentration after admission. The patients were divided into survival group and death group according to their prognosis. The differences in clinical indicators such as admission plasma colchicine concentration, blood routine, blood biochemistry, coagulation function, and blood gas analysis were compared between the two groups, and their predictive value for the prognosis of patients were analyzed. Results: A total of 23 patients with colchicine poisoning, aged 20-85 years, were included in this study, of which 15 cases (65.22%) survived and 8 cases (34.78%) died. The first plasma colchicine concentration at admision were 0.42-53.61 ng/ml. The plasma colchicine concentration and the concentration-time product were 10.08-2147.04 h·ng/ml.Compared with the survival group, the plasma colchicine concentration and the concentration-time product in the death group were significantly increased, and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that first plasma concentration and poisoning time>132.48 h·ng/ml, high C-reactive protein, high D-dimer, high absolute value of BE were the risk factors for the prognosis of patients with colchicine poisoning (OR=12.000, 95%CI: 1.1181-128.836; OR=1.053, 95%CI: 1.009-1.098; OR=1.219, 95%CI: 1.039-1.429; OR=1.360, 95%CI: 1.1.044-1.773; P<0.05). High prothrombin time activity was protective factor affecting the prognosis of colchicine poisoning patients (OR=0.941, 95%CI: 0.892~0.993; P<0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the areas under the curves of first plasma concentration and poisoning time, C-reactive protein, absolute value of BE, D-dimer for predicting the prognosis of patients with colchicine poisoning were 0.918, 0.888, 0.867, 0.837, respectively, and the areas under the curves of prothrombin time activityfor predicting the prognosis of patients with colchicine poisoning was 0.788 (P<0.05) . Conclusion: The product of the first plasma colchicine concentration at admission and poisoning time is closely related to the prognosis of patients with colchicine poisoning, it can be used as a predictor for early evaluation of the prognosis of poisoned patients.