Estimating mortality associated with seasonal influenza among adults aged 65 years and above in China from 2011 to 2016: A systematic review and model analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Estimation of influenza disease burden is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies against seasonal influenza. This study aimed to estimate influenza-associated excess respiratory and circulatory (R&C) and all-cause (AC) mortality among older adults aged 65 years and above in mainland China from 2011 to 2016. METHODS: Through a systematic review, we collected influenza-associated excess R&C and AC mortality data of older adults aged 65 years and above for specific cities/provinces in mainland China. Generalized linear models were fitted to estimate the corresponding excess mortality for older adults by province and nationwide, accounting for the potential variables of influenza virus activity, demography, economics, meteorology, and health service. All statistical analyses were conducted using R software. RESULTS: A total of 9154 studies were identified in English and Chinese databases, and 11 (0.1%) were included in the quantitative synthesis after excluding duplicates and screening the title, abstract, and full text. Using a generalized linear model, the estimates of annual national average influenza-associated excess R&C and AC mortality among older adults aged 65 years and above were 111.8 (95% CI 92.8-141.1) and 151.6 (95% CI 127.6-179.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. Large variations in influenza-associated excess R&C and AC mortality among older adults were observed among 30 provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza was associated with substantial excess R&C and AC mortality among older adults aged 65 years and above in China from 2011 to 2016. This analysis provides valuable evidence for the introduction of the influenza vaccine into the National Immunization Program for the elderly in China.