Estimating Effects of Sea Level Rise on Benthic Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning in a Large Meso-Tidal Coastal Lagoon.

Estuaries are among the world's most productive ecosystems, but due to their geographic location, they are at the forefront of anthropogenic pressures. Sea level rise (SLR) is one major consequence of climate change that poses a threat to estuaries with extensive intertidal habitats. The ecological implications of intertidal habitat loss have been largely overlooked despite their likely significance. We aimed to address this knowledge gap by investigating how benthic macroinvertebrate communities and their contributions to ecosystem function are likely to respond to SLR. Based on a spatially extensive dataset (119 sites) from a large coastal lagoon, depth, sediment chlorophyll concentrations, mud content, and average current speed were identified as the main drivers of community compositional turnover. Shifts in benthic community structure and associated functional implications were then evaluated using depth as a proxy for SLR. Three main macrofaunal groups representing intertidal, shallow subtidal, and deep subtidal habitats were identified. Functional trait analysis indicated low functional redundancy for a key intertidal suspension-feeding bivalve (Austrovenus stutchburyi) and the lack of a shallow subtidal functional replacement should intertidal habitats become inundated. These findings strongly suggest SLR and the associated environmental changes will alter estuarine macroinvertebrate communities, with implications for future ecosystem function and resilience.