Independent risk evaluation associated with short-term black carbon exposure on mortality in two megacities of Yangtze River Delta, China.

ABSTRACT

The adverse health effects of PM2.5 have been well demonstrated by many studies. However, as a component of PM2.5, evidence on the mortality risk of black carbon (BC) is still limited. In this study, based on the data of daily mean PM2.5 concentration, BC concentration, meteorological factors, total non-accidental (all-cause) and cardiovascular mortality in Shanghai and Nanjing during 2015-2016, a semi-parameter generalized additive model (GAM) in the time series and the constituent residual approach were employed to explore the exposure-response relationship between BC and human mortality in these two megacities of Yangtze River Delta, China. The main objective was to separate the health effects of BC from total PM2.5, and compare the difference of mortality ER related to BC original concentration and adjusted concentration after controlling PM2.5. Results showed that there were all significantly associated with daily mortality for PM2.5 and BC. The percentage excess risk (ER) increases in all-cause and cardiovascular categories were 1.68 % (95 % s 1.28, 2.08) and 2.16 % (95 % CI 1.54, 2.79) with 1 µg/m3 increment in original BC concentration in Shanghai. And the ER in Nanjing was smaller than that in Shanghai. After eliminating PM2.5 confounding effects by a constituent residual approach, the BC residual concentration still had a strong significant ER. The ER for BC residual in Shanghai got an obvious increase, and ER of the cardiovascular mortality for all, females and males increased by 0.55 %, 1.46 % and 0.62 %, respectively, while the ER in Nanjing decreased slightly. It also revealed that females were more sensitive to the health risk associated with short-term BC exposure than males. Our findings provide additional important evidence and ER for mortality related to independent BC exposure. Therefore, BC emission reduction should be paid more attention in air pollution control strategies to reduce BC-related health burdens.