Exploring changes in violence across two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Richmond, VA.

ABSTRACT

The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic carried with it an increase in violence in the United States and abroad. The proportion of violence cases involving firearms also increased during this time, yet little research has examined these effects using data from the second wave of COVID infections. Explanations for these documented increases in gun violence put forward by scholars include increased firearm purchases, alcohol consumption, unemployment, and organized crime activity. The current work examined these trends in Richmond, VA. We collected data on patients (N = 1744) presenting with violent injuries from 2018 to 2022 from the emergency department of a Level-1 Trauma Center in Richmond, VA. Data were coded on the basis of whether they presented before the pandemic, during the first wave, or during the second wave. Logistic binomial regressions revealed that the risk of gunshot wounds increased by 32% during the first wave and 44% during the second wave, relative to the pre-COVID period, but that the increase between the first and second wave was not significant. These findings held after controlling for victim age, race, sex, and injury severity. Further analyses revealed that these effects were specific to violent injury, as we found no increase in firearm use among self-injury cases. The heightened violence reported during the COVID-19 pandemic was also observed in Richmond, VA. Gun violence in particular increased over time as other forms of violence (i.e., assaults, stabbings, and self-harm) decreased.