Stacking Ensemble Learning-Based [18F]FDG PET Radiomics for Outcome Prediction in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to develop an analytic approach based on [18F]FDG PET radiomics using stacking ensemble learning to improve the outcome prediction in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Methods: In total, 240 DLBCL patients from 2 medical centers were divided into the training set (n = 141), internal testing set (n = 61), and external testing set (n = 38). Radiomics features were extracted from pretreatment [18F]FDG PET scans at the patient level using 4 semiautomatic segmentation methods (SUV threshold of 2.5, SUV threshold of 4.0 [SUV4.0], 41% of SUVmax, and SUV threshold of mean liver uptake [PERCIST]). All extracted features were harmonized with the ComBat method. The intraclass correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the reliability of radiomics features extracted by different segmentation methods. Features from the most reliable segmentation method were selected by Pearson correlation coefficient analysis and the LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) algorithm. A stacking ensemble learning approach was applied to build radiomics-only and combined clinical-radiomics models for prediction of 2-y progression-free survival and overall survival based on 4 machine learning classifiers (support vector machine, random forests, gradient boosting decision tree, and adaptive boosting). Confusion matrix, receiver-operating-characteristic curve analysis, and survival analysis were used to evaluate the model performance. Results: Among 4 semiautomatic segmentation methods, SUV4.0 segmentation yielded the highest interobserver reliability, with 830 (66.7%) selected radiomics features. The combined model constructed by the stacking method achieved the best discrimination performance. For progression-free survival prediction in the external testing set, the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve and accuracy of the stacking-based combined model were 0.771 and 0.789, respectively. For overall survival prediction, the stacking-based combined model achieved an area under the curve of 0.725 and an accuracy of 0.763 in the external testing set. The combined model also demonstrated a more distinct risk stratification than the International Prognostic Index in all sets (log-rank test, all P < 0.05). Conclusion: The combined model that incorporates [18F]FDG PET radiomics and clinical characteristics based on stacking ensemble learning could enable improved risk stratification in DLBCL.