Radiomic signatures based on pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT, combined with clinicopathological characteristics, as early prognostic biomarkers among patients with invasive breast cancer.

ABSTRACT

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive role of fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) in the prognostic risk stratification of patients with invasive breast cancer (IBC). To achieve this, we developed a clinicopathologic-radiomic-based model (C-R model) and established a nomogram that could be utilized in clinical practice. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled a total of 91 patients who underwent preoperative 18F-FDG PET/CT and randomly divided them into training (n=63) and testing cohorts (n=28). Radiomic signatures (RSs) were identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression algorithm and used to compute the radiomic score (Rad-score). Patients were assigned to high- and low-risk groups based on the optimal cut-off value of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for both Rad-score and clinicopathological risk factors. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the association between these variables and progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS). We then plotted a nomogram integrating all these factors to validate the predictive performance of survival status. Results: The Rad-score, age, clinical M stage, and minimum standardized uptake value (SUVmin) were identified as independent prognostic factors for predicting PFS, while only Rad-score, age, and clinical M stage were found to be prognostic factors for OS in the training cohort. In the testing cohort, the C-R model showed superior performance compared to single clinical or radiomic models. The concordance index (C-index) values for the C-R model, clinical model, and radiomic model were 0.816, 0.772, and 0.647 for predicting PFS, and 0.882, 0.824, and 0.754 for OS, respectively. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves demonstrated that the C-R model had a good ability for both clinical net benefit and application. Conclusion: The combination of clinicopathological risks and baseline PET/CT-derived Rad-score could be used to evaluate the prognosis in patients with IBC. The predictive nomogram based on the C-R model further enhanced individualized estimation and allowed for more accurate prediction of patient outcomes.