The occurence of cancer in ageing populations at global and regional levels, 1990 to 2019.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: population ageing contributes to increased cancer cases and deaths and has profound implications for global healthcare systems. We estimated the trends of cancer cases and deaths in ageing populations at global and regional levels. METHODS: using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we analysed the change in cancer cases and deaths associated with population ageing, population growth and epidemiological factors from 1990 to 2019 using decomposition analysis. Additionally, we estimated the proportions of people aged 65 years and over accounting for total cases and deaths, and investigated relationships between the proportions and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) using the Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: from 1990 to 2019, there was an increase of 128.9% for total cases and 74.8% for total deaths in all cancers combined; the percentages of older people increased from 48.6% to 56.4% for cases and from 52.0% to 61.9% for deaths. Population ageing contributed to the largest increase in global cancer occurrence, with 56.5% for cases and 63.3% for deaths. However, the changes attributed to epidemiological factors was 5.2% for cancer cases and -33.4% for cancer deaths. The proportions of total cases and deaths of older adults were positively correlated with socioeconomic development of the country. CONCLUSION: our findings revealed that the main contributor to increased cancer cases and deaths has changed from comprehensive epidemiological factors to demographic shifts. To respond to the rapidly growing occurrence of cancer in ageing populations, the global health priority should focus on meeting the rising demand for cancer diagnosis, treatment and care services for older people.