Modeling the impact of hospital beds and vaccination on the dynamics of an infectious disease.

ABSTRACT

The unprecedented scale and rapidity of dissemination of re-emerging and emerging infectious diseases impose new challenges for regulators and health authorities. To curb the dispersal of such diseases, proper management of healthcare facilities and vaccines are core drivers. In the present work, we assess the unified impact of healthcare facilities and vaccination on the control of an infectious disease by formulating a mathematical model. To formulate the model for any region, we consider four classes of human population; namely, susceptible, infected, hospitalized, and vaccinated. It is assumed that the increment in number of beds in hospitals is continuously made in proportion to the number of infected individuals. To ensure the occurrence of transcritical, saddle-node and Hopf bifurcations, the conditions are derived. The normal form is obtained to show the existence of Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. To validate the analytically obtained results, we have conducted some numerical simulations. These results will be useful to public health authorities for planning appropriate health care resources and vaccination programs to diminish prevalence of infectious diseases.