Model of strategy control for delayed panic spread in emergencies.

ABSTRACT

In emergencies similar to virus spreading in an epidemic model, panic can spread in groups, which brings serious bad effects to society. To explore the transmission mechanism and decision-making behavior of panic, a government strategy was proposed in this paper to control the spread of panic. First, based on the SEIR epidemiological model, considering the delay effect between susceptible and exposed individuals and taking the infection rate of panic as a time-varying variable, a SEIR delayed panic spread model was established and the basic regeneration number of the proposed model was calculated. Second, the control strategy was expressed as a state delayed feedback and solved using the exact linearization method of nonlinear control system; the control law for the system was determined, and its stability was proven. The aim was to eradicate panic from the group so that the recovered group tracks the whole group asymptotically. Finally, we simulated the proposed strategy of controlling the spread of panic to illustrate our theoretical results.