Patient-level patterns in daily prescribed opioid dosage in single level lumbar fusion are associated with postoperative opioid dosage and adverse events: a retrospective analysis of claims data.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing lumbar spine surgery have high rates of preoperative opioid use, which is associated with inferior outcomes and higher risks for opioid dependency postoperatively. PURPOSE: Determine whether there are identifiable subgroups of patients that follow distinct patterns in pre- and postoperative opioid dosing. Examine how preoperative patterns in opioid dosing relate to postoperative opioid patterns, opioid cessation, and the risk for adverse events. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Retrospective analysis of an administrative claims database (MeritiveTM Marketscan® Research Databases 2007-2015). PATIENT SAMPLE The 9,768 patients undergoing primary single level lumbar fusion. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary daily morphine milligram equivalent (MME) opioid dosing calculated from prescriptions dispensed for 1 year before and after surgery; secondary 90-day all-cause readmission and complications, 90-day acute postoperative pain, 90-day and 1-year reoperation, surgical costs, length of stay, and discharge disposition. METHODS: Distinct patient subgroups defined by patterns of daily MME pre- and postoperatively were identified via group-based trajectory modeling. Associations between these groups and outcomes were assessed with multivariable logistic regression with risk adjustment for patient and surgical factors. RESULTS: Among primary single level lumbar fusion patients, 59.5% filled an opioid prescription in the 3 months preceding surgery, whereas 40.5% were opioid naïve (Naïve). Five distinct subgroups of daily MME were identified among those filling opioids preoperatively (1) Naïve to 3m (21.2% of patients) no opioids until 3 months preoperatively, escalating to 15 MME/day; (2) Low to 3m (11.4%) very low or as needed dose until 3 months preoperatively, escalating to 15 MME/day; (3) 6m Rise (6.9%) no opioids until 6 months preoperatively, escalating to >30 MME/day; (4) Medium (9.8%) increased linearly from 10 to 25 MME/day across the year before surgery; (5) High (10.0%) increased linearly from 60 to >80 MME/day across the year before surgery. These five preoperative opioid groups were related to postoperative opioids filled in a dose-response manner. The two preoperative patient groups with chronic Medium to High-dose opioid dosing were associated with increased adverse events, including all-cause readmission, reoperation, and pneumonia, whereas a low baseline group with a large, earlier preoperative rise in opioid dosing (6m Rise) had increased encounters for acute postoperative pain. Postoperatively, only 9.5% of patients did not fill an opioid prescription. Five distinct postoperative subgroups were identified based on their patterns in daily MME Two groups ceased filling opioids within the year following surgery (33.6% of patients), and three groups declined in opioid dosage following surgery but plateaued at low (0-5 MME/day, 29.1%), medium (10-15 MME/day, 12.0%), or high (70-75 MME/day), 13.1%) doses by 1 year. Patients within the higher preoperative opioid groups were more likely to belong to the postoperative groups that were unable to cease filling opioids. CONCLUSIONS: Identification of a patient's preoperative time trend in daily opioid use may provide significant prognostic value and help guide pain management and risk reduction efforts. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III.