Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan. METHODS: Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected. RESULTS: Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches. CONCLUSIONS: The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.