Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study.
JMIR Public Health Surveill
; 10: e46360, 2024 Apr 18.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38635315
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes.OBJECTIVE:
This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan.METHODS:
Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected.RESULTS:
Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches.CONCLUSIONS:
The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias do Colo do Útero
/
Infecções por Papillomavirus
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article