Improved interpretable machine learning emergency department triage tool addressing class imbalance.

ABSTRACT

Objective: The Score for Emergency Risk Prediction (SERP) is a novel mortality risk prediction score which leverages machine learning in supporting triage decisions. In its derivation study, SERP-2d, SERP-7d and SERP-30d demonstrated good predictive performance for 2-day, 7-day and 30-day mortality. However, the dataset used had significant class imbalance. This study aimed to determine if addressing class imbalance can improve SERP's performance, ultimately improving triage accuracy. Methods: The Singapore General Hospital (SGH) emergency department (ED) dataset was used, which contains 1,833,908 ED records between 2008 and 2020. Records between 2008 and 2017 were randomly split into a training set (80%) and validation set (20%). The 2019 and 2020 records were used as test sets. To address class imbalance, we used random oversampling and random undersampling in the AutoScore-Imbalance framework to develop SERP+-2d, SERP+-7d, and SERP+-30d scores. The performance of SERP+, SERP, and the commonly used triage risk scores was compared. Results: The developed SERP+ scores had five to six variables. The AUC of SERP+ scores (0.874 to 0.905) was higher than that of the corresponding SERP scores (0.859 to 0.894) on both test sets. This superior performance was statistically significant for SERP+-7d (2019 Z = -5.843, p < 0.001, 2020 Z = -4.548, p < 0.001) and SERP+-30d (2019 Z = -3.063, p = 0.002, 2020 Z = -3.256, p = 0.001). SERP+ outperformed SERP marginally on sensitivity, specificity, balanced accuracy, and positive predictive value measures. Negative predictive value was the same for SERP+ and SERP. Additionally, SERP+ showed better performance compared to the commonly used triage risk scores. Conclusions: Accounting for class imbalance during training improved score performance for SERP+. Better stratification of even a small number of patients can be meaningful in the context of the ED triage. Our findings reiterate the potential of machine learning-based scores like SERP+ in supporting accurate, data-driven triage decisions at the ED.