Machine Learning of Cardiac Anatomy and the Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation After TAVR.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) occurs in 5% to 15% of patients who undergo transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Cardiac imaging has been underutilized to predict NOAF following TAVR. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this analysis was to compare and assess standard, manual echocardiographic and cardiac computed tomography (cCT) measurements as well as machine learning-derived cCT measurements of left atrial volume index and epicardial adipose tissue as risk factors for NOAF following TAVR. METHODS: The study included 1,385 patients undergoing elective, transfemoral TAVR for severe, symptomatic aortic stenosis. Each patient had standard and machine learning-derived measurements of left atrial volume and epicardial adipose tissue from cardiac computed tomography. The outcome of interest was NOAF within 30 days following TAVR. We used a 2-step statistical model including random forest for variable importance ranking, followed by multivariable logistic regression for predictors of highest importance. Model discrimination was assessed by using the C-statistic to compare the performance of the models with and without imaging. RESULTS: Forty-seven (5.0%) of 935 patients without pre-existing atrial fibrillation (AF) experienced NOAF. Patients with pre-existing AF had the largest left atrial volume index at 76.3 ± 28.6 cm3/m2 followed by NOAF at 68.1 ± 26.6 cm3/m2 and then no AF at 57.0 ± 21.7 cm3/m2 (P < 0.001). Multivariable regression identified the following risk factors in association with NOAF left atrial volume index ≥76 cm2 (OR 2.538 [95% CI 1.165-5.531]; P = 0.0191), body mass index <22 kg/m2 (OR 4.064 [95% CI 1.500-11.008]; P = 0.0058), EATv (OR 1.007 [95% CI 1.000-1.014]; P = 0.043), aortic annulus area ≥659 mm2 (OR 6.621 [95% CI 1.849-23.708]; P = 0.004), and sinotubular junction diameter ≥35 mm (OR 3.891 [95% CI 1.040-14.552]; P = 0.0435). The C-statistic of the model was 0.737, compared with 0.646 in a model that excluded imaging variables. CONCLUSIONS: Underlying cardiac structural differences derived from cardiac imaging may be useful in predicting NOAF following transfemoral TAVR, independent of other clinical risk factors.