Evaluation of the sensitivity of meteorological drought in the Mediterranean region to different data record lengths.

ABSTRACT

The division and evaluation of data series used in monitoring drought into different time intervals is a practical approach to detecting the spatial and temporal extent of drought spread. This study aimed to determine meteorological drought's spatial and temporal distribution using overlapping and consecutive periods and cycles of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) time series in the Mediterranean region, Turkey. In the scope of the research, SPI values for the SPI12, SPI6 (1), and SPI6 (2) seasons were calculated for consecutive and overlapping hydrological years (1978-1998/21 years, 1978-2008/31 years, and 1978-2018/41 years) at 28 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation, Mann-Kendall, and Sen slope trend tests were applied at a 5% significance level for each season (SPI12, SPI6 (1), and SPI6 (2)) and different time scales (21, 31, and 41 years). For each season and period, maps of the SPI drought class, average formation of drought class, Mann-Kendall (MK) trend, and Sen's slope (SS) trend test statistics for the Mediterranean region were obtained, and the spatial distribution rate of trends was determined by drawing hypsometric curves. Changes in drought occurrence at different time scales were thoroughly evaluated with the changing length of data recording. Consequently, it was determined that the mild wet (MIW) and mild drought (MID) classes dominate the study area in the Mediterranean region. Significant and nonstationary changes detected in extreme wet and drought occurrences (extreme wet, EW; severe wet, SW; extreme drought, ED; severe drought, SD) were found to pose a risk in the study area. It was observed that there were spatially and temporally insignificant decreasing drought trends in the Mediterranean basin, considering that the time scales of these trends slowed down. Despite a nonsignificant trend from the MID drought class to the MIW drought class, it is predicted that the MIW and MID classes will maintain their dominance in the Mediterranean region. The central part of the study area (central Mediterranean basin) is the region with the highest drought risk.